tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-80545216717687793992024-03-17T19:30:24.906-04:00Liberty Takes EffortLiberty Takes Effort is a blog for the discussion of current national, state, and regional issues while relying on the wisdom of the founders of our nation.Liberty Takes Efforthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13398225334133635697noreply@blogger.comBlogger107125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8054521671768779399.post-51899593336404654572024-01-09T17:11:00.001-05:002024-01-10T06:18:29.225-05:00The Biological and Psychological Foundations of our Division<p>Our nation is in an intense political and
cultural struggle where neither side can emerge as an unequivocal victor. Internal
strife leaves us vulnerable to external threats from those aspiring to replace our
global dominance. Understanding the deeper underlying forces at work as we grapple
with the political tension may help forge a way forward. In my reading and
research to understand our division better two books stood out to provide a
compelling lens to understand the deepening polarization rooted in the fabric
of our minds.</p><p class="MsoNormal"><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Jonathan Haidt’s, <a href="https://www.amazon.com/s?k=the+righteous+mind+by+jonathan+haidt&i=stripbooks&crid=1N781D3QAWH4I&sprefix=the+righteous+mind%2Cstripbooks%2C112&ref=nb_sb_ss_ts-doa-p_1_18" target="_blank"><b>The
Righteous Mind: Why Good People Are Divided by Politics and Religion</b></a>
provides a study of the profound disparities in the political values of liberal
and conservative-leaning individuals. As a summary, I recommend <span style="background: white; color: black;">this twenty-minute video TED Talk by
Haidt: “</span><a href="https://www.ted.com/talks/jonathan_haidt_the_moral_roots_of_liberals_and_conservatives?language=en" target="_blank"><span style="background: white;">The moral roots of liberals and conservatives</span></a><span style="background: white; color: black;">.” <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">I previously wrote the blog post, “<a href="https://www.libertytakeseffort.com/2022/06/is-our-partisan-political-division.html" target="_blank">Isour political division biological</a>?” about Oxford scholar Iain McGilchrist’s
book, <a href="https://www.amazon.com/s?k=the+master+and+his+emissary&crid=3Q6EZ0LI2HPII&sprefix=the+master+and+his+emissary%2Caps%2C326&ref=nb_sb_noss_1" target="_blank"><b><span style="background: white; color: #33aaff;">The Master and his Emissary: The Divided
Brain and the Making of the Western World</span></b></a><span style="background: white; color: black;">. The book offers warnings about the collective
potential of the divided brain to destroy civilizations. </span>As a summary, I
recommend <span style="background: white; color: black;">this twelve-minute animated
summary of McGilchrist’s ideas: </span><a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dFs9WO2B8uI" target="_blank"><span style="background: white;">The Divided Brain</span></a>.<span class="MsoHyperlink"><span style="background: white;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh6z7wB9eJlUH83TFro9tDZz3Foz9FLl6N7CYGNVN_6JDgRDE8fegw-6n3-Ye3pnIQKMnn3yTHnCHSsJJ3QYxKusrcEsvfA6EWle_IXh8EZMGLiCZDTVT_RUBGBBnTd5y_vp11JpGy4rYKUgkVyQpqpTZ-iXyC8JPVokQU9j6ICiLePM_qV-j1JrkD07ZY/s521/Righteous%20Mind-and-Master.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="400" data-original-width="521" height="246" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh6z7wB9eJlUH83TFro9tDZz3Foz9FLl6N7CYGNVN_6JDgRDE8fegw-6n3-Ye3pnIQKMnn3yTHnCHSsJJ3QYxKusrcEsvfA6EWle_IXh8EZMGLiCZDTVT_RUBGBBnTd5y_vp11JpGy4rYKUgkVyQpqpTZ-iXyC8JPVokQU9j6ICiLePM_qV-j1JrkD07ZY/s320/Righteous%20Mind-and-Master.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><br /><p class="MsoNormal">Haidt's six moral foundations framework posits that human
morality is built upon distinct pillars: Care, Fairness, Loyalty, Authority,
Sanctity, and Liberty. Liberal-leaning individuals prioritize Care and
Fairness, focusing on protecting vulnerable individuals and ensuring equitable
treatment. Conservative-leaning individuals share these values but additionally
emphasize Loyalty, Authority, Sanctity, and Liberty, prioritizing the
preservation of social order, respect for authority, and the sanctity of
traditions.</p><p class="MsoNormal"><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">The table below provides a short description of Haidt’s
moral foundations, the reason they evolved in human beings, and some of the characteristics
of each of the foundations:</p>
<p class="MsoNormal"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgHwV2mwxWzq-V2mRj5QnKR6bfNm-t2UsRvJCDqbP_UPyVyjAPnIL0SPue28JWLi8Is8K_iQ8zwVKbHWRe8XCHraJT4LthaEY3VOmWUCFOSipIz3nBSLCEV6XFpKBtoO-0rK-kLku6LsDTNJiiiYr_FkJBQvq27DyxxR2FPaIt4ytW25_NfMNGSs65nI5c/s524/Moral%20Foundations.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="287" data-original-width="524" height="219" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgHwV2mwxWzq-V2mRj5QnKR6bfNm-t2UsRvJCDqbP_UPyVyjAPnIL0SPue28JWLi8Is8K_iQ8zwVKbHWRe8XCHraJT4LthaEY3VOmWUCFOSipIz3nBSLCEV6XFpKBtoO-0rK-kLku6LsDTNJiiiYr_FkJBQvq27DyxxR2FPaIt4ytW25_NfMNGSs65nI5c/w400-h219/Moral%20Foundations.jpg" width="400" /></a></div><br />The graphic below shows the priority given to each moral
foundation by the spectrum of political groupings in our country:<p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjIkYpLsbzrAoPxeePLxb1PHl08fwBlyy69FF9vDA_2UHeeTNPKZTGzjpD8V_Tuc5e3SSWS5sVoumRFJ-mi4KDLlj-_8Iib5ja4awDX3hx2FsH-YfoaWSlvM6GfBWLVaer6kpMDYj-YjbPrEMKyJwzYw4GxAIskqenSUrT3CZnCnbSP4bFHerAw-Kve8iM/s965/Moral%20Matrix.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="581" data-original-width="965" height="241" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjIkYpLsbzrAoPxeePLxb1PHl08fwBlyy69FF9vDA_2UHeeTNPKZTGzjpD8V_Tuc5e3SSWS5sVoumRFJ-mi4KDLlj-_8Iib5ja4awDX3hx2FsH-YfoaWSlvM6GfBWLVaer6kpMDYj-YjbPrEMKyJwzYw4GxAIskqenSUrT3CZnCnbSP4bFHerAw-Kve8iM/w400-h241/Moral%20Matrix.jpg" width="400" /></a></div><p class="MsoNormal">The divergence has profound implications, as indicated in my
2017 blog post, <a href="https://www.libertytakeseffort.com/2017/03/brotherhood-and-borders.html#more" target="_blank">Brotherhoodand Borders</a>. That post emphasized that both caring for individual
immigrants and ensuring responsibility to protect the common good through
appropriate immigration policy are essential, rejecting an either-or
proposition.</p><o:p></o:p><p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Very liberal individuals prioritize immigrant care,
emphasizing the unfairness immigrants face compared to the abundance in the
United States. They may overlook border control, the rule of law, and the
potential harmful incentives their focus may create. On the other end, very
conservative individuals value immigrant humanity but focus on border security
and law enforcement, sometimes advocating for an end to all immigration without
recognizing its economic significance. In the center are those who advocate for
orderly immigration, a secure border, and humane treatment of migrants.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Understanding these psychological underpinnings helps us
appreciate the intractable nature of political polarization. It is not just
about policy disagreements; it's about fundamentally different worldviews
shaped by our neurological wiring and environment. This realization calls for
approaching political discourse with newfound empathy, recognizing that the
moral priorities of our counterparts are inherent in their cognitive makeup.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Recognizing the interconnectedness of moral foundations and
cognitive processes does not imply one side is inherently superior to the
other. Both liberal and conservative-leaning perspectives contribute valuable
insights to the societal dialogue. Liberal-leaning individuals bring attention
to issues of social justice and equality, pushing for a more inclusive and
compassionate society. Meanwhile, conservative-leaning individuals share those
values but also emphasize the importance of tradition, order, and authority in
maintaining a stable and cohesive community.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Haidt established that liberals and conservatives have
different sets of moral foundations that are a spectrum with individuals having
diverse mixtures of each of the six specific moral foundations. This is a
strength in human social development when these moral foundations are in
harmony societally. <o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Iaian McGhilcrist’s studies provide insight into the
competing nature of the two hemispheres of the brain. The left hemisphere has a
limited view of the world. It organizes and categorizes, focusing on detail and
analysis, while the right hemisphere is creative, intuitive, and holistic. The
dominance of the left hemisphere, both in individuals and societies, can lead
to destructive outcomes.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Applying this insight to contemporary politics, a hypothesis
emerges: Extreme liberal and conservative individuals, dominated by
left-brained societal tendencies, may veer toward totalitarianism. <o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Bureaucracy, totalitarianism, and mechanistic emphasis are
the extension of the left brain’s modeling, categorizing, and controlling at
the societal level. In the ancient world, the written language and money were
the technologies that enabled Greece and Rome to flourish and create empires.
These technologies served as tools of command, communication, and trade. Think
of how these technologies served the Roman Empire’s administrative bureaucracy
to conduct a census of conquered lands or impose taxes. In time, the left brain
is refining and extending the bureaucracy and its control as it does with the
individual. Eventually, both the individual and society fall subject to the
excess of the left hemisphere and bureaucracy to their detriment.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">McGilchrist provides as a cautionary tale, urging vigilance
against the potential pitfalls of unchecked dominance of left brain tendencies
in the activism and leadership of both liberals and conservatives. Both sides
are equally vulnerable to these forces, and a Marxist or fascist totalitarian
regime is equally undesirable.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">In a time where political discourse often descends into
acrimony, understanding the biological and psychological roots of our division
offers a pathway to constructive engagement. Recognizing that our differences
are deeply rooted in our cognitive architectures is crucial. Bridging the gap
requires appreciating the validity of alternative moral perspectives and
acknowledging that a harmonious society must balance the values encapsulated in
both liberal and conservative-leaning worldviews.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">If you are interested in learning more about your own
personality and hemispheric tendencies, you can take the following self-tests: <a href="https://www.idrlabs.com/morality/6/test.php" target="_blank">Moral Foundations Test</a><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><a href="https://www.wikihow.com/Right-Brain-vs-Left-Brain-Test" target="_blank">Left – RightBrain Test</a><o:p></o:p></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; line-height: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;"><i><span style="color: #656565; font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 10.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">DISCLAIMER: The entire
content of this website and newsletter are based solely upon the opinions and
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the reader.</span></i><span style="color: #656565; font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 10.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><br /><br /><br /><br />Liberty Takes Efforthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13398225334133635697noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8054521671768779399.post-33110908574321202312023-11-07T12:19:00.004-05:002024-01-09T17:14:44.933-05:00The opportunity after the Gaza War<p>The brutal attack by Hamas on Israel on October 7, 2023,
presents a challenging situation. However, it may have unforeseen consequences,
such as weakening Iran's influence, potentially leading to a change in
leadership in Gaza, and creating a more favorable political environment for
peace and prosperity in the region, including for Palestinians.</p><p class="MsoNormal"><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Hamas's attack on Israel can be seen as an attempt by Iran,
using one of its proxies, to disrupt the progress and success of the Abraham
Accords. These Accords offer modernization, economic prosperity, and peace to a
region that has been plagued by bitter conflicts with no hope of resolution for
decades.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Iran's opposition to the Accords is driven by its desire for
regional hegemony. Iran is a theocracy governed by totalitarian mullahs,
leading a population of 90 million people with the intent to remove the U.S. presence from the Middle East and dominate its Sunni Muslim neighbors. Their leaders
aspire to “<a href="https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/R/R44017" target="_blank">restore a sense of “greatness” reminiscent of ancient Persian empires</a>.” Iran uses
proxies across the region to pursue its strategic goals with plausible
deniability.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Contrary to the outcry from Hamas supporters worldwide and
distorted intersectional views on U.S. college campuses, the attack was not about
a continuing cycle of violence or a righteous anti-colonial struggle of the
oppressed. Its purpose was to prevent the Abraham Accords from uniting Israel
and Sunni Muslim states in the Middle East.<o:p></o:p></p><span><a name='more'></a></span><p class="MsoNormal">Iran employs proxies throughout the Middle East to <a href="https://www.wilsoncenter.org/article/irans-islamist-proxies" target="_blank">challenge local and neighboring governments</a>. These militias and parties receive
support from Iran's Revolutionary Guards and Quds Force in Bahrain, Iraq,
Lebanon, the Palestinian Territories, Syria, and Yemen. This allows Iran to
pursue its strategic objectives while maintaining plausible deniability, as
seen in incidents such as the 1983 bombing of the U.S. Marine Barracks in
Beirut and the recent attack on Israel.</p><p class="MsoNormal"><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Hamas had been planning its attack on Israel for over a
year, with <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2023/10/09/iran-support-hamas-training-weapons-israel/" target="_blank">key support from Iranian allies</a>. Iran's backing of Hamas has increased in
recent years, with funding rising from $100 million to $700 million in 2022.
Training, arms, logistical support, and technical guidance on weapons
manufacturing have also increased. Although it seems unusual for Sunni Hamas
leaders to align themselves with Shiite Iran, their shared interests in the
destruction of Israel and substantial Iranian support forged this alliance.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Reports from The Wall Street Journal suggest that the
Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corp <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/why-its-obvious-iran-approved-hamas-attack-khamenei-nuclear-deal-f394c477" target="_blank">met with Hamas in Beirut</a> to approve the attack on Israel. While the U.S.
government claims it lacks direct evidence of an Iranian role in the attack,
substantial evidence points to Iran's involvement, which some choose to deny in
order to avoid direct confrontation with Iran.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">The Biden Administration's policy changes, including a more
conciliatory approach to Iran to restore nuclear negotiations, have <a href="https://www.fdd.org/analysis/2023/10/10/us-policy-emboldened-iran-and-hamas-its-time-to-fight-back/">emboldened
the Iranian government</a>. These changes have allowed Iran to earn
significantly more from crude oil sales. Additionally, the release of $10
billion in frozen funds in Iraq in July and another $6 billion in frozen funds
in Korea in September has provided the Iranian government with ample resources
to pursue its objectives.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">The <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Abraham_Accords" target="_blank">Abraham Accords</a><span class="MsoHyperlink"> </span>pose a challenge to Iran's
ambitions. These agreements between Israel and several Arab states expand upon
previous peace agreements with Egypt and Jordan. As of now, the United Arab
Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan have joined the Accords.</p>
<p class="MsoNormal"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi6BvP4O1waa14qQY64Y_kDgf5U2vihS60zArcPBttEYS1D8uLcp9yB4euBp6s7mb35OwV3M5076ucijYsaWei90IGog-lS_LHjFNtSTUMlw7SP6IJpSNY99mw4-iNi0IfythyPGxPTWnSlq7IniHrFVolQOKeVZntb4jdmINq0dhwaDiyClqlAzPEDyVk/s800/Abraham%20Accords%20Signing.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="533" data-original-width="800" height="213" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi6BvP4O1waa14qQY64Y_kDgf5U2vihS60zArcPBttEYS1D8uLcp9yB4euBp6s7mb35OwV3M5076ucijYsaWei90IGog-lS_LHjFNtSTUMlw7SP6IJpSNY99mw4-iNi0IfythyPGxPTWnSlq7IniHrFVolQOKeVZntb4jdmINq0dhwaDiyClqlAzPEDyVk/s320/Abraham%20Accords%20Signing.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div>The Abraham process, initiated by the Trump Administration,
emerged from frustration with the failure of the <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><a href="https://history.state.gov/milestones/1993-2000/oslo" target="_blank">1993 Oslo Accord process</a><span class="MsoHyperlink"> </span>to achieve final agreements between
Israel and the Palestinians. Two attempts in 2000 and 2008 failed due to the
refusal of Palestinian leaders <a href="https://www.heritage.org/middle-east/commentary/yasser-arafats-disastrous-legacy" target="_blank">Yasir Arafat</a> and <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-palestinians-israel/palestinians-reject-proposal-by-israeli-pm-idUSLC6231820080812" target="_blank">Mahmoud Abbas</a>. The Abraham process
shifts the focus to the religious connection between all Abrahamic peoples.
Abraham was the father of Isaac and Ishmael from whom the Jewish and Arab
peoples descend respectively. <a href="https://www.science.org/content/article/jews-and-arabs-share-recent-ancestry#:~:text=Clashing%20groups%20are%20Y%20chromosome%20cousins&text=More%20than%2070%25%20of%20Jewish,the%20last%20few%20thousand%20years." target="_blank">Genetic studies</a> affirm the Biblical connections of the two peoples.<o:p></o:p><p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">The Accords document states, “Recognizing that the Arab and
Jewish peoples are descendants of a common ancestor, Abraham, and inspired, in
that spirit, to foster in the Middle East a reality in which Muslims, Jews,
Christians and peoples of all faiths, denominations, beliefs and nationalities
live in, and are committed to, a spirit of coexistence, mutual understanding
and mutual respect… [AND] committed to working together to realize a negotiated
solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict that meets the legitimate needs
and aspirations of both peoples.”<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Talk of expanding the Accords to include Saudi Arabia may
have been too much for Iran to tolerate. The announcement of the <a href="https://www.internationalaffairs.org.au/australianoutlook/the-india-middle-east-europe-economic-corridor-promises-and-challenges/" target="_blank">India-MiddleEast-Europe Corridor</a><span class="MsoHyperlink"> </span>initiative at the G20
Summit in India in September likely raised further concerns, not only for Iran
but also for China and Russia. This corridor envisions a multi-faceted economic
and energy route from India to Europe through Saudi Arabia and Israel.</p><blockquote style="border: none; margin: 0px 0px 0px 40px; padding: 0px;"><blockquote style="border: none; margin: 0px 0px 0px 40px; padding: 0px;"><blockquote style="border: none; margin: 0px 0px 0px 40px; padding: 0px;"><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEie9jBySKxdKwU-yxanhgRYXHC08wiaBvrJfuxU10rpANYFlPWXCCE74pGk1c7TosHzh7_wUP6dzvK0iQxMT-XVNdiZExgfNMtaG9Zm5aLAQjA-kKsMFXTtu0TfT_F4pHA07X1XQCFHN1S8KNHncdcqyJX8kXJlw16-j-nx0FwACgjSt1SJPJ8mWKmVYdg/s672/Abraham%20Map.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em; text-align: center;"><img border="0" data-original-height="400" data-original-width="672" height="190" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEie9jBySKxdKwU-yxanhgRYXHC08wiaBvrJfuxU10rpANYFlPWXCCE74pGk1c7TosHzh7_wUP6dzvK0iQxMT-XVNdiZExgfNMtaG9Zm5aLAQjA-kKsMFXTtu0TfT_F4pHA07X1XQCFHN1S8KNHncdcqyJX8kXJlw16-j-nx0FwACgjSt1SJPJ8mWKmVYdg/s320/Abraham%20Map.jpg" width="320" /></a></p></blockquote></blockquote></blockquote><p class="MsoNormal">The opportunity lies in the possibility that Iran may have
overplayed its hand, confirming to the Abraham Accords participants that their
perception of Iran as a source of violence and instability in the region is
accurate. Forward-thinking leaders in Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Bahrain are
not deceived by this attempt to undermine their vision for the future. They may
express concern for the welfare of the Palestinian people publicly, but they
are likely to welcome the destruction of Hamas. Once the dust settles after the
conflict, they will likely resume their efforts with renewed determination and
a sense of urgency.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Israel, which stands to benefit the most from regional
peace, has been compelled to take unwelcome military action to defend its
people and restore conditions for further advancing the Abraham Accords. It
cannot tolerate Hamas as the leadership in Gaza, as it risks a repeat of the
horrors of October 7th with potentially even more devastating consequences.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Israel, the United States, and the Abraham Accords states
must now work on setting the conditions for progress after Israel completes its military
action. This includes establishing new leadership in Gaza committed to peace
and willing to shift the culture and political narrative among Palestinians
from an absolutist "from the river to the sea" chant that calls for the elimination of Israel to one that
accepts that compromise is in their best interest.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Simultaneously, the United States must abandon its misguided
efforts to pursue détente with Iran and restore the Trump Administration's
"maximum pressure" policy. It should lead an international effort to
reduce the power of Iran's mullahs and dismantle their proxies in the Middle
East. The participants in the Abraham process should join this effort as
advocates for peace and prosperity in the region.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">In the words of Jesus, "Blessed are the peacemakers,
for they will be called children of God" (Matt 5:9). Iran's actions have
demonstrated it is a source of violence and instability in the
Middle East. Those who seek peace and prosperity through the Abraham Accords
are the true peacemakers. Their positive trajectory was disrupted by Iran and
Hamas, causing the current violence. It is essential to recognize the difference
between the two struggling parties and support those who seek peace.<o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="background-color: white; color: #656565; font-family: "Times New Roman", Times, FreeSerif, serif; font-size: 13.2px;"><i>*****<o:p></o:p></i></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="background-color: white; color: #656565; font-family: "Times New Roman", Times, FreeSerif, serif; font-size: 13.2px;"><i>SHARING: Please consider sharing these blog posts via social media or email if you find them interesting by providing a link to either <a href="https://www.libertytakeseffort.com/" style="color: #2288bb; text-decoration-line: none;">https://www.libertytakeseffort.com/</a> or <a href="https://libertytakeseffort.substack.com/" style="color: #2288bb; text-decoration-line: none;">https://libertytakeseffort.substack.com/</a> <o:p></o:p></i></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="background-color: white; color: #656565; font-family: "Times New Roman", Times, FreeSerif, serif; font-size: 13.2px;"><i>DISTRIBUTION: Liberty Takes Effort shifted its distribution from social media to email delivery via Substack as a Newsletter. If you would like to receive distribution please email me at libertytakeseffort@gmail.com To see archived blog posts since 2014 visit <a href="http://www.libertytakeseffort.com/" style="color: #2288bb; text-decoration-line: none;">www.libertytakeseffort.com</a>.<o:p></o:p></i></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="background-color: white; color: #656565; font-family: "Times New Roman", Times, FreeSerif, serif; font-size: 13.2px;"><i>DISCLAIMER: The entire content of this website and newsletter are based solely upon the opinions and thoughts of the author unless otherwise noted. It is not considered advice for action by readers in any realm of human activity. Its purpose is to stimulate discussion on topics of interest to readers to further inform the public square. Use of any information on this site is at the sole choice and risk of the reader.</i></p><br /><br /><br /><br />Liberty Takes Efforthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13398225334133635697noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8054521671768779399.post-79062918532713479712023-10-27T13:03:00.002-04:002024-01-09T17:15:20.001-05:00A Republican Unity Ticket to Challenge Trump<p>Former President Donald Trump currently
holds a commanding lead as the frontrunner for the Republican nomination in the
2024 Presidential Election. His lead has consistently grown despite facing
several indictments. None of his opponents has managed to surpass the
20% mark in national polls or in early caucus/primary states since July. To
disrupt this trend and challenge Trump more effectively, a major shift in
strategy is required by his challengers.</p><p class="MsoNormal">One potential approach is for the competing candidates to
cease vying for second place and instead form a team. This team would identify
a president-vice president partnership from within their ranks and select
cabinet members from the remaining candidates. The goal would be to work
together as a cohesive unit focused on unseating Trump as the primary
front-runner.<o:p></o:p></p><span><a name='more'></a></span><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgVhFXQOzd6XbohxKT1D7UvM4gXEhDwienYFDnqtKV6XPmbNuf_Y6E_vTtujs1_eWqpyItD_U3QDdjUCHRYKivLaKZDv-VnPrFGrwSey7NIjM-uvT1Zo3KO966VpxVwNl7MeUQRA0XJALAPqfDEE7ZJg9a5RSqjVo06Zu5ImduNEIDl7hSCzVzomjjZo1w/s700/Primary%20Debate%20Pic.jpg" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><br /><img border="0" data-original-height="394" data-original-width="700" height="180" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgVhFXQOzd6XbohxKT1D7UvM4gXEhDwienYFDnqtKV6XPmbNuf_Y6E_vTtujs1_eWqpyItD_U3QDdjUCHRYKivLaKZDv-VnPrFGrwSey7NIjM-uvT1Zo3KO966VpxVwNl7MeUQRA0XJALAPqfDEE7ZJg9a5RSqjVo06Zu5ImduNEIDl7hSCzVzomjjZo1w/s320/Primary%20Debate%20Pic.jpg" width="320" /></a></div>The strategy necessitates a willingness on the part of the
challengers to act unselfishly and boldly. Together, they stand a better chance
of defeating Trump, as opposed to going it alone. Combining campaign, media,
and financial resources would be a more efficient and effective approach. <o:p></o:p>This unified approach may help them get closer to Trump and build momentum.<p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">The Wall Street Journal reports in <a href="https://www.wsj.com/politics/elections/trump-challengers-are-begging-for-money-big-donors-arent-giving-it-e2a3d380" target="_blank">“Trump’s Challengers Beg for Donations”</a> (Oct. 18) that large donors are taking to the sidelines until
the field of candidates shrinks. A consolidation of the field into a team may
unleash that funding stream once again. In addition, combining the cash on hand
and small donor bases of the candidates would bring strength. Recent <a href="https://www.fec.gov/" target="_blank">Federal Election Commission</a> reports show that the combined cash on hand of the challengers exceeds $45
million, surpassing Trump’s $32 million. <o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Following the third <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-election/third-republican-presidential-debate-set-nov-8-miami-rcna116978" target="_blank">Republican debate</a> on November 8th in
Miami, the candidates pursuing this plan would announce a joint president-vice
president campaign before the New Year. They would also identify potential
cabinet members from within their group. <o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">The primary consideration in selecting candidates for these
positions should be their potential to win the primary and general election. All the
challengers possess interesting backgrounds and valuable experience in
government and the private sector. Some have proven better fund raisers than
others and that may influence which president-vice president team may emerge,
but the key question is which combination is most likely to secure a general
election victory. The strongest combination appears to be Haley/DeSantis based
on polling.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Nikki Haley, the former South Carolina Governor, and U.S.
Ambassador to the United Nations, appears to be a strong candidate for the
president position in the primary. National polling averages from <a href="https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/" target="_blank">538</a> and <a href="https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2024/president/us/2024_republican_presidential_nomination-7548.html" target="_blank">Real Clear Politics</a> show DeSantis has plateaued in second place with Haley gaining
momentum and challenging him for that slot. In the early primary/caucus states of New Hampshire and South Carolina Haley is edging out DeSantis
for second place behind Trump.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Haley appears weaker among populists, pro-life, and strong
traditional values segments of the Republican Party. In this context, Florida
Governor Ron DeSantis could serve as an ideal vice-presidential candidate to
shore up support among these voters. DeSantis has proven himself as a winner
with a convincing victory in the 2022 election. He is also willing to tackle
cultural issues head-on and has a history of success in reversing trends
objectionable to traditionalist conservatives.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">The remaining third-tier challengers can play vital roles in
the team as likely cabinet members in the Haley/DeSantis partnership. For
instance, South Carolina Senator Tim Scott could take on the role of Secretary
of Housing and Urban Development to lead efforts in implementing an equality
and opportunity agenda. Former New Jersey Governor Chris Christie could serve
as Attorney General to rebuild trust in the justice system. Former Vice
President Mike Pence, if he wishes to continue serving, could be considered for
Secretary of Defense or State. His experience would be welcome, and he has a
personal stake in national security decisions with a son and son-in-law serving
as military pilots. Vivek Ramaswamy’s energy and intellect could be focused to
revamp U.S. education policy as Secretary of Education. North Dakota Governor
Doug Burgum could serve as Secretary of Energy to implement a comprehensive and
balanced energy policy. Former Arkansas Governor Asa Hutchinson might take on
the role of Secretary of Homeland Security having had several related positions in
the past.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Another potentially dramatic cabinet offer could be made to
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. He left the Democratic Party and began an independent
campaign. He is polling above 20% against Biden and Trump in some polls.
Kennedy would be asked to join this team with a promise to be nominated for
Secretary of Health and Human Services and the opportunity to transform the
institution and break the stranglehold he perceives the pharmaceutical industry has on it.</p>
<p class="MsoNormal">It is worth noting that a significant majority of Americans,
across the political spectrum, have indicated in polling that they do not want
a Biden/Trump rematch. The Democratic Party has shut down challenges to President Biden. The Republican Party is fortunate to
have a deep bench of high-quality candidates seeking to replace former President
Trump. Alone, none of them are likely to unseat President Trump, but by working
together, they stand a better chance of achieving this goal.<o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal">There is also the opportunity for non-Republicans to express their dissatisfaction with the Trump/Biden match up. <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/which-states-have-open-or-closed-democratic-primaries-2019-11" target="_blank">Thirty-one states</a> do not have party registration or allow registered independents to vote in any party's primary. If a Unity Ticket were formed it could expand its outreach to independents and even moderate Democrats to support their ticket. This could make the difference in accumulating a majority of delegates in the 31 states.</p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhQ4p4OqYmNvMwpuWEzqlQ-Uhxl3R2WuPFBo9A8MJMmLHR7oDwnv-crZ7PteSXGDR-7LQDfJdwBueoKPO4HhW1Ou5mbvQVWXHAhic3jgxPY-N5-YWJNPfGgxz9UAo-y3lCWb2ekTjVon9a5npNcJj4XNFvxXyMe9m29Uao_QDBDgJ1NE1IU1m2yboFTRJ0/s647/Open%20Primaries.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="472" data-original-width="647" height="233" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhQ4p4OqYmNvMwpuWEzqlQ-Uhxl3R2WuPFBo9A8MJMmLHR7oDwnv-crZ7PteSXGDR-7LQDfJdwBueoKPO4HhW1Ou5mbvQVWXHAhic3jgxPY-N5-YWJNPfGgxz9UAo-y3lCWb2ekTjVon9a5npNcJj4XNFvxXyMe9m29Uao_QDBDgJ1NE1IU1m2yboFTRJ0/s320/Open%20Primaries.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><br /><p class="MsoNormal"><br /></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><i>*****<o:p></o:p></i></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><i>SHARING:<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Please
consider sharing these blog posts via social media or email if you find them
interesting by providing a link to either
<a href="https://www.libertytakeseffort.com/">https://www.libertytakeseffort.com/</a><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>or<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span><a href="https://libertytakeseffort.substack.com/">https://libertytakeseffort.substack.com/</a> <o:p></o:p></i></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><i>DISTRIBUTION:<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Liberty
Takes Effort shifted its distribution from social media to email delivery via
Substack as a Newsletter.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>If you would
like to receive distribution please email me at
libertytakeseffort@gmail.com<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>To see
archived blog posts since 2014 visit <a href="http://www.libertytakeseffort.com">www.libertytakeseffort.com</a>.<o:p></o:p></i></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><i>DISCLAIMER: The entire content of this website and
newsletter are based solely upon the opinions and thoughts of the author unless
otherwise noted. It is not considered advice for action by readers in any realm
of human activity. Its purpose is to stimulate discussion on topics of interest
to readers to further inform the public square. Use of any information on this
site is at the sole choice and risk of the reader.</i><o:p></o:p></p>Liberty Takes Efforthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13398225334133635697noreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8054521671768779399.post-71396498178198523802022-07-07T08:38:00.003-04:002023-11-07T07:39:27.008-05:00Red Flag failure - laws mean nothing if not implemented<p><span style="background-color: white; color: #656565; font-size: 10pt;">The 4</span><sup style="background-color: white; color: #656565;">th</sup><span style="background-color: white; color: #656565; font-size: 10pt;">
of July mass public shooting of parade goers in Illinois is yet one more tragedy
sparking calls for new gun control laws.</span><span style="background-color: white; color: #656565; font-size: 10pt;">
</span><span style="background-color: white; color: #656565; font-size: 10pt;">As in the Buffalo shopping center mass public shooting, this event occurred in a state with
some of the most stringent gun control laws in the country.</span><span style="background-color: white; color: #656565; font-size: 10pt;"> </span><span style="background-color: white; color: #656565; font-size: 10pt;">Only </span><a href="https://giffords.org/lawcenter/resources/scorecard/" style="background-color: white; font-size: 10pt;">seven states are
ranked A-</a><span style="background-color: white; color: #656565; font-size: 10pt;"> or better, including Illinois and New York, by the Giffords Law Center to Prevent Gun Violence.</span><span style="background-color: white; color: #656565; font-size: 10pt;"> </span><span style="background-color: white; color: #656565; font-size: 10pt;">Both states also have Red Flag Laws in place
that if properly resourced, prioritized, and enforced could have prevented both
events.</span><span style="background-color: white; color: #656565; font-size: 10pt;"> </span></p>
<p style="background: white;"><span style="color: #656565; font-size: 10pt;">In a
previous blog post, “<a href="https://www.libertytakeseffort.com/2022/05/mourning-with-uvalde-what-can-we-do.html">Mourning
with Uvalde – what can we do?</a>” this blog recommended several actions for
readers and law makers to make changes that could be realistically achieved and
might make a difference.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Another blog
post, “<a href="https://www.libertytakeseffort.com/2022/06/a-victory-for-respectful-bipartisan.html">A
victory for respectful bipartisan collaboration</a>,” described some legislative success at
the federal level.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>One of
the outcomes was to support states in creating and implementing Red Flag
laws.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style="background: white;"><span style="color: #656565; font-size: 10pt;">As I
have written before, there are now 19 states with Emergency Risk Protection Order
(ERPO) laws commonly called Red Flag laws. These laws are <a href="https://rockinst.org/blog/what-does-the-research-say-about-extreme-risk-protection-orders-erpo/" target="_blank"><span style="color: #2288bb; text-decoration: none; text-underline: none;">essential to successful intervention</span></a> at the intersection
of dangerousness and firearm access. They typically create a
process for the removal of guns from the possession of an individual who
demonstrates they are dangerous to themselves or others. Having a
Red Flag law in place is essential as a first step in this effort.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style="background: white;"><span></span></p><a name='more'></a><span style="color: #656565; font-size: 10pt;"><br /></span><p></p><p style="background: white;"><span style="color: #656565; font-size: 10pt;">But I
warned in that original blog:<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><b>Do not
assume that because your state has passed a law that it is being implementing
properly! <o:p></o:p></b></span></p>
<p style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background: white; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: start; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;"><span style="color: #656565; font-size: 10pt;">Passing a law is
not the final answer, only the enabling part. Government representatives always
focus on passing new laws so that they can say they “did something.”
Passing a law is just the beginning of a process to create institutions
and resources to use the law successfully to its intended purpose. We are
not good at this and failure to enforce existing laws creates resistance to
passing new laws. It is essential that <a href="https://ctb.ku.edu/en/table-of-contents/advocacy/direct-action/policy-enforcement/main" target="_blank"><span style="color: #2288bb; text-decoration: none; text-underline: none;">citizens hold their leaders to account on the enforcement of laws</span></a>.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style="background: white;"><span style="color: #656565; font-size: 10pt;">Unfortunately,
it appears the effectiveness of implementing Red Flag laws varies dramatically by
state. One <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/gun-law-allowing-police-to-seize-weapons-from-potential-shooters-often-isnt-used-11636984981" target="_blank"><span style="color: #2288bb; text-decoration: none; text-underline: none;">recent report</span></a> indicated Florida used their Red Flag law “2,355 times
to temporarily remove guns last year, nearly half the national total.”
New York, with a comparable population to Florida only used its law 255
times. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style="background: white;"><span style="color: #656565; font-size: 10pt;">In <a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/news/red-flag-laws-states-implementation/">another
report</a>, the Buffalo grocery store mass public shooting was identified as a
specific failure of a state to implement existing law.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The murderer made many prior statements and
underwent psychiatric examination that should have triggered New York’s Red
Flag law when he tried to purchase weapons.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>"Buffalo was a textbook case. It was not the failure of the law. It
was the failure of the implementation of the law," said John Feinblatt of
Everytown for Gun Safety.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style="background: white;"><span style="color: #656565; font-size: 10pt;">In
Illinois, there is today an effort to <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/after-highland-park-shooting-illinois-officials-call-for-more-use-of-red-flag-law-11657141524">strengthen
its Red Flag</a> law with one legislator saying, “There’s alot we can do, and loopholes
in the law which we need to fill.”<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>It
may well be that there are loopholes to fix and lessons to better the law.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>But Illinois is an abject failure at
implementing the existing law.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style="background: white;"><span style="color: #656565; font-size: 10pt;">Despite
several mass public shootings in that state, CBS News reports court records “indicate
only 51 emergency orders issued statewide in 2020 and 37 of them in 2021.”<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>State Rep. Denyse Stoneback said of Illinois’
record, "When the red flag law was first enacted, there was no structure
put in place to inform residents or law enforcement about its passage or
implementation."<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style="background: white;"><span style="color: #656565; font-size: 10pt;">The
point here is to tell readers once again, you must hold officials
accountable.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Do you have a Red Flag law
in your state?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Is it funded properly?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>How is the public educated about how to use
it?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>What specific coordination and
procedures have been created in your community between police and schools to
detect dangerous persons?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>What kind of
culture exists in your community to report a suspected dangerous person in your
home, school, or community?<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style="background: white;"><span style="color: #656565; font-size: 10pt;">Again,
we can pass laws all day long, but if we do not implement, resource, and
enforce them properly they are useless.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>If you
think your state is immune, think again.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>CBS News reported Massachusetts, another A- rated gun control state, has
only dozens of actions using its Red Flag law. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>How is it possible that Florida can have nearly
9,000 since its implementation in comparison?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Ask some questions.<o:p></o:p></span></p>Liberty Takes Efforthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13398225334133635697noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8054521671768779399.post-41560734726296903102022-06-27T08:23:00.004-04:002022-07-07T08:27:58.799-04:00A victory for respectful bipartisan collaboration post Uvalde<p class="MsoNormal">The <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bipartisan_Safer_Communities_Act">Bipartisan
Safer Communities Act</a> was signed into law on June 25, 2022.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>It was a major achievement for the Congress
to pull together the Bill in a bipartisan manner and approve legislation that may
not make anyone at the extremes of the left and right divide happy.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>But for the 60+% in the middle, it showed
that people of good will, respecting the opinions of others, can get something
done to impact a problem of concern to the public.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">The law provides support to improve mental health services
for communities and schools; expands background checks for those under 21 to
include juvenile records; funds assistance to states to implement Red Flag laws;
closes the “boyfriend loophole;” clarifies trafficking to include “straw
purchases;” and funds school safety programs.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Credit for the law goes first to Arizona Senator Kyrsten
Sinema (D) who vowed business as usual would not pass muster after the Uvalde
mass murder.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>She approached Senate
Minority Leader Mitch McConnel (R) of Kentucky and asked for negotiating
partners on the Republican side.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>McConnell
identified Texas Senator John Cornyn (R) and Senator Thom Tillis (R) of North
Carolina.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The two promptly agreed to
meet with Sinema the next day along with Senator Chris Murphy (D) of
Connecticut.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span></span></p><a name='more'></a>Credit also goes to McConnel and Senator Chuck Schumer of
New York for allowing the bipartisan negotiation process to go forth.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Both risked pushback from within their
parties.<o:p></o:p><p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Reading the Bipartisan Safer Communities Act there is a lot
included that was recommended for national leaders in this blog’s post, “<a href="https://www.libertytakeseffort.com/2022/05/mourning-with-uvalde-what-can-we-do.html">Mourning
with Uvalde – what can be done</a>?”<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Great.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>That blog post also called for action from my readers.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>For those that took the time and made the
effort to call or write governmental leaders – Thank you!<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>You are part of the solution.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Beyond the specific achievements of the legislation, it is
important to appreciate that this was a victory for moderation and problem
solving.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>As I said in Mourning with Uvalde,
“Progress comes only through consistent long-term focus and collaboration among
the many Americans, both those who do and do not own firearms, who in good
faith want solutions to this issue.”<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Take courage from this success to do more.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>There is much to do in many states and in
your local community and schools.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">This success shows that trying to impose views not shared in
other communities is wrong and only leads to stalemates and anger.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>What is acceptable in one region or state may
not be acceptable in another.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Find areas
of agreement where national standards and policies make sense within the
constraints of the law.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Lasting and
substantial change comes from the consensus of a broad majority of the governed
- not by edict.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Again, thank you to all who took the time and made the
effort to reach out to others to achieve one small goal on this specific issue –
it will kindle further trust and cooperation.<o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal">*****</p><p style="background: white; color: #656565; font-family: "Times New Roman", Times, FreeSerif, serif; font-size: 13.2px;"><em><span style="font-size: 10pt;">SHARING: Please consider sharing these blog posts via social media or email if you find them interesting by providing a link to either </span></em><span style="color: black;"><a href="https://www.libertytakeseffort.com/" style="color: #2288bb; text-decoration-line: none;"><span style="font-size: 10pt;">https://www.libertytakeseffort.com/</span></a></span><em><span style="font-size: 10pt;"> or </span></em><span style="color: black;"><a href="https://libertytakeseffort.substack.com/" style="color: #2288bb; text-decoration-line: none;"><span style="font-size: 10pt;">https://libertytakeseffort.substack.com/</span></a></span><em><span style="font-size: 10pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></em></p><p style="background: white; color: #656565; font-family: "Times New Roman", Times, FreeSerif, serif; font-size: 13.2px;"><em><span style="font-size: 10pt;">DISTRIBUTION: Liberty Takes Effort shifted its distribution from social media to email delivery via </span></em><span style="color: black;"><a href="https://substack.com/" style="color: #2288bb; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank"><em><span style="font-size: 10pt;">Substack</span></em></a></span><em><span style="font-size: 10pt;"> as a Newsletter. If you would like to receive distribution please email me at </span></em><span style="color: black;"><a href="mailto:libertytakeseffort@gmail.com" style="color: #2288bb; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank"><em><span style="color: #33aaff; font-size: 10pt;">libertytakeseffort@gmail.com</span></em></a></span><em><span style="font-size: 10pt;"> To see archived blog posts since 2014 visit </span></em><span style="color: black;"><a href="http://www.libertytakeseffort.com/" style="color: #2288bb; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank"><em><span style="font-size: 10pt;">www.libertytakeseffort.com</span></em></a></span><span style="font-size: 10pt;">.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="background: white; color: #656565; font-family: "Times New Roman", Times, FreeSerif, serif; font-size: 13.2px;"><em><span style="font-size: 10pt;">DISCLAIMER: The entire contents of this website and newsletter are based solely upon the opinions and thoughts of the author unless otherwise noted. It is not considered advice for action by readers in any realm of human activity. Its purpose is to stimulate discussion on topics of interest to readers to further inform the public square. Use of any information in this site is at the sole choice and risk of the reader.</span></em></p>Liberty Takes Efforthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13398225334133635697noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8054521671768779399.post-10830320412795600192022-06-25T08:05:00.001-04:002022-07-07T08:28:28.845-04:00Is our partisan political division biological?<p><span style="font-family: inherit;">Stephen Stills wrote a song in 1966 for the group Buffalo
Springfield titled “<a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=80_39eAx3z8"><span style="color: #0563c1;">For What It’s Worth</span></a>.”
It became an anti-war protest anthem of sorts in the 1960’s. The song seems
more broadly applicable today than in 1966. Parsing the lyrics: </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 11.65pt; margin-bottom: 8pt;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><i><span style="color: black;">There's battle lines bein' drawn. Nobody's right if
everybody's wrong. A thousand people in the street. Singin' songs
and a-carryin' signs. Mostly sayin' hooray for our side. </span></i><span style="color: black;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 11.65pt; margin-bottom: 8pt;"><span style="color: black;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">In the responding chorus, Stills gives good counsel
singing, <i>“It’s time we stop children, what’s that sound, everybody look
what’s goin’ down.”</i><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 11.65pt; margin-bottom: 8pt;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="color: black;">Western countries are increasingly divided in partisan
political animosity that is personal and intense - the U.S. most
acutely. </span><a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2022/05/us-democrat-republican-partisan-polarization/629925/"><span style="color: #0563c1;">Mutually antagonistic political groupings</span></a><span style="color: black;"> cast their political identity like an umbrella over
personal and professional relationships. </span><a href="https://www.universityofcalifornia.edu/news/when-it-comes-politics-youre-not-rational-you-think">Irrational
allegiance</a><span style="color: black;"> to political identity and </span><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Confirmation_bias">confirmation bias</a><span style="color: black;"> are at play, not opinion. Shared opinions on specific
issues and policies flourish across the dividing lines. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Many people hold political identities that are
largely inconsistent with many of their expressed opinions and policy preferences. </span><a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7201237/"><span style="color: #0563c1;">Much is written about the divide</span></a><span style="color: black;"> - when it started; how it gets worse with time; that
it may cause the breakup of the U.S. or even a </span><a href="https://www.npr.org/2022/01/11/1071082955/imagine-another-american-civil-war-but-this-time-in-every-state"><span style="color: #0563c1;">civil war</span></a><span style="color: black;">. <o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 11.65pt; margin-bottom: 8pt;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><a href="https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-hatred-negative-partisanship-came-to-dominate-american-politics/"><span style="color: #0563c1;">Both sides of the divide</span></a><span style="color: black;"> seek to impose their values through control of
government, particularly national government, and through cultural and economic
entities. On the one side, the goal is to restore a nostalgic, almost
mythical past, and stop change that is often essential to the renewal of
institutions and culture. On the other side, the goal is to transform
society to an unattainable political and cultural utopia that necessitates the
destruction of the social institutions that bind society and undergird
civilization.<o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 11.65pt; margin-bottom: 8pt;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="color: black;"><span></span></span></span></p><a name='more'></a><span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="color: black;">The United States is a country of 330 million people with a
range of diverse personalities, interests, and ideas. Its success is
largely determined by how much its people can cooperate, not by obtaining and
imposing power to intimidate others to comply with a particular view. We
need each other. Dr. Jordan Peterson, in in an </span><a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0Wsi6d1k1hI"><span style="color: #0563c1;">interview
about Rule #1</span></a><span style="color: black;"> of his book “</span><a href="https://www.amazon.com/Beyond-Order-More-Rules-Life/dp/B08P3R4CKJ/ref=sr_1_1?keywords=beyond+order&qid=1655210467&sr=8-1"><span style="color: #0563c1;">Beyond Order</span></a><span style="color: black;">,”
passionately calls for people to recognize that the one side “cannot denigrate
social institutions haphazardly, nor can the other side deny the need for
necessary change through creative achievement.”<o:p></o:p></span></span><p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 11.65pt; margin-bottom: 8pt;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="color: black;">Bringing together a center-based coalition from </span><a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2021/11/09/beyond-red-vs-blue-the-political-typology-2/"><span style="color: #0563c1;">within our many views</span></a><span style="color: black;"> seems
the obvious pathway to progress. Yet, in the current climate, it seems
impossible to come together as the extremes of partisanship harden and
coarsen. The United States has faced many very difficult obstacles and
periods of fierce partisan acrimony in its past and overcome them.
It can be done again; but it will take a great deal of soul searching. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>That soul searching begins by looking in the
mirror.<o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 11.65pt; margin-bottom: 8pt;"></p><div style="text-align: left;"><a href="http://www.wychwoodcircle.org/2015/06/" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;" target="_blank"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><img alt="The Divided Brain" border="0" data-original-height="320" data-original-width="302" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiDaSEEjJrvI7aWJPUhmO6vs-Fr0iavZV2OnhM8dfhOJRYeXWVkwzdOISXqjsbCc8lCFt38kUsjKrGQlkwG-uZtlEEFWMxYyAbksx3S7vNmFmbignCLOvcWJiJQZ2fO0iVEWDLkcPbA_CHnFMciIuNdHSL8oULXw1OEWj9TjFa4h0rbJGqO6kRwTbb6/w302-h320/Divided%20BRAIN.jpg" title="The Divided Brain" width="302" /></span></a><span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="clear: right; margin-bottom: 1em;"></span></span></div><span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="color: black;">I recently read a book that has helped to better understand
the biological and psychological basis of my own perceptions and behavior: “</span><a href="https://www.amazon.com/s?k=the+master+and+his+emissary&crid=3Q6EZ0LI2HPII&sprefix=the+master+and+his+emissary%2Caps%2C326&ref=nb_sb_noss_1"><b>The
Master and his Emissary: The Divided Brain and the Making of the Western World</b></a><span style="color: black;">,” by Oxford scholar and psychiatrist </span><a href="https://channelmcgilchrist.com/about/">Iain McGilchrist</a><span style="color: black;">. The book is an extensive analysis of the divided
two-hemisphere brain from a medical, philosophical, and cultural
perspective. </span></span><p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 11.65pt; margin-bottom: 8pt;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="color: black;"></span>All invertebrates have a divided two-hemisphere
brain. According to McGilchrist, this division exists for a reason.
Survival depends on the ability of our brains to focus attention in two
different ways simultaneously. The left and right hemispheres pay
attention differently. At its most basic, that attention is split between
the detailed focus of the left hemisphere to find and grasp food and prey, and
the right hemisphere’s attention to the broader world to detect predators and
threats. He uses the example of a bird that is both detecting,
distinguishing, and collecting small seeds in the sand of a beach, using its
left hemisphere while simultaneously using its right hemisphere to keep watch
on the entire surrounding area for threats.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 11.65pt; margin-bottom: 8pt;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><i><span style="color: black;">To understand more fully the basic ideas of the book, I
recommend that interested readers watch this short </span></i><a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dFs9WO2B8uI"><i><span style="color: #0563c1;">animated
summary</span></i></a><i><span style="color: black;"> of McGilchrist’s basic
hypothesis on the divided brain. <o:p></o:p></span></i></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 11.65pt; margin-bottom: 8pt;"><span style="color: black;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">The two hemispheres are at the same time involved in
everything that we do but contribute in different and distinct ways. The
left hemisphere seeks order and control, with a focus on detail and
categorization of what it knows. The right hemisphere experiences the
world as it is without preconception. These mutually reliant, yet divided
hemispheres, struggle for dominance to shape human perception of the world.<o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 11.65pt; margin-bottom: 8pt;"><span style="color: black;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">McGilchrist contends the right hemisphere (the Master) and
left hemisphere (the Emissary) of the brain have evolved in their relationship
over the millennia. He hypothesizes an imbalance has developed between
the hemispheres: the left should be the servant of the right, but it is now
somewhat dominant. <o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 11.65pt; margin-bottom: 8pt;"><span style="color: black;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">Left hemisphere dominance disrupts an essential balance
necessary to fully perceive and engage the world. The imbalance results
in the individual focusing too much on the left hemisphere’s categorizing and
organizing, and reducing everything to choices to bring order, and control the
world. Left hemisphere perceptions are restricted to what it knows;
and, thus, opinions and judgments that rely on it are not fully informed. It
lacks and needs the broad, open, and fuller intuitive and contextual input of a
universe of possibilities and experience that only the right hemisphere can
provide.<o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 11.65pt; margin-bottom: 8pt;"><span style="color: black;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">The left hemisphere plays a large role in grasping things,
accumulating things, and exploiting things, but it lacks the ability of the
right hemisphere to appreciate things or understand their meaning.
In other words, for the left brain, the pecking of seeds is no different than
the accumulation of “stuff” in our modern lives through exploitation of our
environment, rather than appreciation of our surroundings and experiences.
<o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 11.65pt; margin-bottom: 8pt;"><span style="color: black;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">This grasping is not isolated to the physical. In
language, we say, “she <b>grasps</b> the idea.” The left brain is trying
to isolate all things, physical and intangible, from context. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>It focuses on a particular aspect to model,
categorize, and control it; and, thus, have power over it. The
expression, “can’t see the forest for the trees,” seems apt.<o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 11.65pt; margin-bottom: 8pt;"><span style="color: black;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">The dominance of the left hemisphere in the individual
further extends to the macro level of the broader society and
civilization. McGilchrist contends at times in history the two
hemispheres were in harmony to produce some of the most flourishing periods in
Western Civilization – the “richness of thought and expression” in early Greece
and Rome, and most of the Renaissance period. In contrast, he contends
left hemisphere dominance destroyed the Greek and Roman Empires. He says,
the Roman Republic and early Roman Empire flourished up until the 2<sup>nd</sup> Century
A.D. when “bureaucracy, totalitarianism, and mechanistic emphasis arose to eventually
contribute to the destruction of the Empire.” <o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 11.65pt; margin-bottom: 8pt;"><span style="color: black;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">Note that this discussion is exclusively about the Western
World. McGilchrist explains that Oriental cultures have a more balanced
view of the world. It is not that there are significant differences
in the brains of Eastern and Western people, but that there are “differences in
the way they use them to view the world.” We shape culture and culture
shapes us, so there are differences East to West. That said, it
seems obvious Oriental peoples are adopting Western “cultural ideas so fast
that they are in danger of becoming a parody of the worst aspects of our own
culture.”<o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 11.65pt; margin-bottom: 8pt;"><span style="color: black;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">Bureaucracy, totalitarianism, and mechanistic emphasis are
the extension of the left brain’s modeling, categorizing, and controlling at
the societal level. In the ancient world, the written language and
money were the technologies that enabled Greece and Rome to flourish and create
empires. These technologies served as the tools of command, communication, and
trade. Think of how these technologies served the Roman Empire’s
administrative bureaucracy to conduct a census of conquered lands or impose
taxes. In time, the left brain is refining and extending the
bureaucracy and its control as it does with the individual.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Eventually, both the individual and the
society fall subject to the excess of the left hemisphere and bureaucracy to
their detriment.<o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 11.65pt; margin-bottom: 8pt;"><span style="color: black;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">Today, technology permits the monitoring, manipulation, and
control of every aspect of human life by government and private corporations –
the left hemisphere’s utopia. The political identity groups seek power
through these technologies to bring control and order consistent with the
values and narratives they espouse.<o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 11.65pt; margin-bottom: 8pt;"><span style="color: black;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">The societal impact of left hemisphere dominance, and the
power to subjugate through technology, are a threat to Western democracies.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>They can consume and weaken themselves in
internal conflict fighting for control.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>In the vacuum of their distraction competing civilizations rise.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 11.65pt; margin-bottom: 8pt;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="color: black;">In addition to the immense threat to Western societies and
civilization, if McGilchrist’s hypothesis is correct, there is also the
negative impact on the individual. Left hemisphere dominance diminishes
our ability to seek happiness. Despite the material abundance and
connectivity of our modern lives, we have never been so </span><a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/politics-news/americans-are-unhappiest-they-ve-been-50-years-poll-finds-n1231153"><span style="color: #0563c1;">unhappy</span></a><span style="color: black;">, resentful,
unfulfilled, and disconnected. We have gained power, but lost
wisdom. To change the direction of the society and increase happiness
will require change at the individual level. <o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 11.65pt; margin-bottom: 8pt;"><span style="color: black;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">McGilchrist recommends that individuals work on
themselves. Because the left brain is dominant does not mean we cannot
recognize it and take conscious action to resist its tendencies.<o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 11.65pt; margin-bottom: 8pt;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="color: black;">In </span><a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4W8JYiqUZYQ"><span style="color: #0563c1;">a
recent interview</span></a><span style="color: black;">, McGilchrist was asked,
“What makes life worth living?” He responded (again paraphrasing) it is
in our social relationships that we find fulfillment, happiness, health, and
purpose. We have done our best to destroy social cohesiveness,
vandalize and subdue nature, and dismiss the possibility of the divine.
Better to work in the flow of life in a creative way to nourish deep
relationships with other people, nature, and the divine than struggle with the
mechanism of life.<o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 11.65pt; margin-bottom: 8pt;"><span style="color: black;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">The left hemisphere thinks it knows what it knows and does
not need to know any more. The right hemisphere is constantly questioning
it – are you sure...here is some contrary information...here is some context
that better explains. Both sides essential, but the right hemisphere
should be the Master and the left hemisphere the Emissary.On a personal level I
recognized that I must be aware of this struggle between the brain hemispheres and
give the right hemisphere its due.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 11.65pt; margin-bottom: 8pt;"><span style="color: black;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">Thinking about practical ways I can resist what may be a biological
struggle within the brain I committed to choose to nourish deep relationships
with other people, nature and the divine more.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>To temper the left hemisphere’s inclination to order and control and
power. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>To expose myself more to the
unfamiliar.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>To take time off from the
chatter. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>To be humble; to listen more;
and be more open minded; to admit I could be wrong in my process and conclusions.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>To ask if I have adequately sought out
knowledge and truth to support a position or opinion or simply applied group identity
allegiance. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 11.65pt; margin-bottom: 8pt;"><span style="color: black;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">We need both sides of our brains, and we need each other to
be our best.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 11.65pt; margin-bottom: 8pt;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><i><span style="color: black;">P.S.: Much of what we know about the two hemispheres is
from the study of people with brain injuries.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>For those interested in this topic there is a </span></i><a href="https://www.ted.com/talks/jill_bolte_taylor_my_stroke_of_insight"><i>TED
Talk by Jill Taylor</i></a></span><i><span style="color: black;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"> who was a brain
researcher when she had a massive stroke that destroyed her left hemisphere.</span><o:p></o:p></span></i></p>
<p style="background: white;"><em><span style="color: #656565; font-size: 10pt;">*****</span></em><span style="color: #656565; font-size: 10pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style="background: white;"><em><span style="color: #656565; font-size: 10pt;">SHARING:<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Please consider sharing these blog posts via
social media or email if you find them interesting by providing a link to
either </span></em><span style="color: black; mso-color-alt: windowtext;"><a href="https://www.libertytakeseffort.com/"><span style="font-size: 10pt;">https://www.libertytakeseffort.com/</span></a></span><em><span style="color: #656565; font-size: 10pt;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>or<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span></em><span style="color: black; mso-color-alt: windowtext;"><a href="https://libertytakeseffort.substack.com/"><span style="font-size: 10pt;">https://libertytakeseffort.substack.com/</span></a></span><em><span style="color: #656565; font-size: 10pt;"> <o:p></o:p></span></em></p>
<p style="background: white;"><em><span style="color: #656565; font-size: 10pt;">DISTRIBUTION:
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The entire contents of this website and newsletter are based solely upon the
opinions and thoughts of the author unless otherwise noted. It is not
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choice and risk of the reader.</span></em><span style="color: #656565; font-size: 10pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>Liberty Takes Efforthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13398225334133635697noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8054521671768779399.post-50465666916024621832022-05-31T07:29:00.001-04:002022-06-25T07:31:02.127-04:00Mourning with Uvalde – what can we do?<p> <em>After the </em><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stoneman_Douglas_High_School_shooting" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" target="_blank"><em>Parkland murders</em></a><em> occurred, and again after the </em><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Santa_Fe_High_School_shooting" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" target="_blank"><em>Santa Fe murders</em></a><em> I asked my readers to take action. I ask you again to please take individual action within your own sphere of influence. Please, also communicate with school and governmental leaders. Hold them accountable and demand that they implement solutions. Do not assume that your schools are safe. Demand testing, practice, and exercise protocols be instituted.</em></p><p>Once again America mourns the loss of innocent children. How horrible for the people of Uvalde to suffer such a loss of innocent life. That such things can happen seems unimaginable, but we know them all too well. May each of these families, and the community of Uvalde, find peace and healing after their immense loss. May their loss and God’s love inspire our nation to gain the understanding and wisdom needed to come together with humility in a cooperative manner to prevent such horror in other communities.<span></span></p><a name='more'></a><p></p><p>The death, sorrow, and anger generated by events like those in <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Robb_Elementary_School_shooting" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" target="_blank">Uvalde</a>, <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Santa_Fe_High_School_shooting" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" target="_blank">Santa Fe</a>, <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stoneman_Douglas_High_School_shooting" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" target="_blank">Parkland</a>, and <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sandy_Hook_Elementary_School_shooting" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" target="_blank">Sandy Hook</a>, are often seen as catalysts for change. In our sorrow, anger, and frustration a collective cry of “Do Something!” rings out. But the strong emotion soon subsides for those not directly impacted. The media quickly moves on to new issues and events. Politicians attempt to score as many points as they can expressing outrage, and condemnation of their opponents while accomplishing little or nothing. The public moves on to daily life and its many distractions of technology, entertainment, and sport. The nation’s attention span is short – little is accomplished that might make a difference in preventing additional horrors in the next community. Thus, we end up back here in this terrible place.</p><p>There is no easy answer to stop these horrible events. Reducing their likelihood is difficult and complex. Progress comes only through consistent long-term focus and collaboration among the many Americans, both those who do and do not own firearms, who in good faith want solutions to this issue. There is plenty of room to work on effective and achievable immediate and short-term goals that can build trust and confidence for longer-term research to support additional effective solutions.</p><p>After the Parkland murders, I wrote a series of blog posts to better understand the issues of firearm rights and realities to encourage effective change. For context and insight into the constraints of the real world I recommend those blog posts again.</p><p><a href="https://www.libertytakeseffort.com/2018/03/post-parkland-constitutional.html" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" target="_blank">Post Parkland – Constitutional constraints to action</a> described the context and constraints on firearm laws. The Second Amendment is not going to be repealed in our lifetimes. Wishing it away will achieve nothing. Better to understand its constraints and create achievable solutions within the law.</p><p><a href="https://www.libertytakeseffort.com/2018/03/post-parkland-fire-arms-inventories.html" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" target="_blank">Post Parkland: Firearms – Inventories, statistics, and definitions </a> provided information about the extent of gun ownership in the U.S. About 40% of households have guns; NICS firearm background checks increased 55% from 2017 to 2020 and remain at that level through 2022; there are nearly 400 million guns in circulation; 15 million are added every year; about 20 million are AR-15 type. Wishing them away will achieve nothing.</p><p><a href="https://www.libertytakeseffort.com/2018/04/post-parkland-dangerousness-and-fire.html" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" target="_blank">Post Parkland – dangerousness and firearm access</a> addressed the issues of the perpetrator’s mental health and motivations. There is near universal agreement that dangerous people should not have access to firearms. How can these individuals be identified, what are the risk indicators, what are the legal constraints to intervening in their right to own a firearm?</p><p><a href="https://www.libertytakeseffort.com/2018/05/post-parkland-and-now-santa-fe-call-to.html" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" target="_blank">Post Parkland (and now Santa Fe) - Call to action</a> was a call to action following both Parkland and Santa Fe. This post contained templates for letters that readers could edit to their individual perspective and send to every government official from their School Superintendent to the White House.</p><p>Success is needed in taking steps to prevent or mitigate mass public shootings. This will require Immediate, Short-term, and Long-term action. I am a firm believer that <a href="https://act.represent.us/sign/does-calling-congress-really-work" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" target="_blank">individual communication of concern</a> and demands to leaders is an effective way to bring about that action. Below are some suggestions for readers to consider in their communication and advocacy that have considerable support among both gun owners and non-gun owners.</p><p><strong>IMMEDIATE ACTION: assess and improve physical security at schools and improve the ability of schools and communities to detect dangerous persons and intervene effectively.</strong></p><p>The immediate safety and security of children in school is far more dependent on what is done locally than nationally. There has been progress in improving physical security at schools in recent years. However, it is clearly not enough. The Uvalde school district reported it had a comprehensive school safety program. It did not work. It is reported the <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/uvalde-residents-voice-frustration-over-shooting-response-11653588161" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" target="_blank">assailant was firing a weapon on or near school grounds</a> for twelve minutes before entering the building through a door propped open by a teacher. Public safety leadership failed in their onsite decision-making.</p><p>Every school district and community should be asking why Uvalde failed and ask hard questions of themselves. Leaving this to community leaders is not sufficient. The broader community must be more fully engaged.</p><p>Parents, grandparents, teachers, first responders, and other community members need to come together to collectively ensure that their schools are as safe as required to prevent or mitigate the actions of a mass public shooter. As a first step, demand a community meeting at the local high school auditorium to increase knowledge and begin an assessment for actions to be taken. </p><p>At the meeting, school administrators and public safety officials should provide a presentation to the community on what actions they have taken and what actions and resources are needed to improve school safety. The meeting should be open to all and primarily be an opportunity to inform the public, but also for leaders to hear the concerns and ideas of the public. Additional meetings to develop plans, seek volunteers, and act would follow.</p><p>There are several resources for a community to read in preparation for such a meeting. <a href="http://www.fdle.state.fl.us/MSDHS/MSD-Report-2-Public-Version.pdf" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" target="_blank">The Marjory Stoneman Douglas High School Public Safety Commission Report</a> provided a comprehensive assessment of lessons learned at Parkland and other mass shooting events. The federal government issued <a href="https://www2.ed.gov/documents/school-safety/school-safety-report.pdf" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" target="_blank">The Final Report of the Federal Commission on School Safety</a> in 2018. There are many other resources at the <a href="https://cops.usdoj.gov/html/dispatch/08-2019/safety_planning.html" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" target="_blank">Department of Justice</a> for safety planning and at <a href="https://www.schoolsafety.gov/" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" target="_blank">SchoolSafety.gov </a>.</p><p>A specific request should be made to determine what policies, procedures and technologies are in place to <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/education/2021/12/09/stopping-school-mass-shootings-oxford-michigan/" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" target="_blank">detect potentially dangerous students</a> and community members. Too often after an event there is a plethora of information that these perpetrators were clearly dangerous. Why isn’t this <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/massacre-data-artifical-intelligence-buffalo-shooter-tops-supermarket-payton-gendron-name-11652817738" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" target="_blank">information detected before</a> the event? Are there technology answers? Are there cultural issues in the community that suppress people from speaking up? </p><p><em>Talk with friends, family and colleagues in your community. Call or write your town or city leaders, school committee, and police chief and ask them to call a community meeting. The public cannot simply leave this in their hands and assume every possible effort has been made. The risk is too great. The cost too high</em>.</p><p><strong>SHORT TERM ACTION: Pass Extreme Risk Protection Order (ERPO) legislation in every state; ensure states that have ERPO have in place policies, procedures, and resources to use the law effectively; pass federal legislation to aid states in passing and resourcing ERPO laws; pass federal legislation requiring universal background checks.</strong></p><p>Following the Parkland murders, Florida passed <a href="https://www.fldoe.org/safe-schools/msdhs-psa.stml" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" target="_blank">comprehensive laws</a> to try and stop future such events. One of its major achievements was the passage of an <a href="https://www.justice.gov/doj/reducing-gun-violence/commentary-extreme-risk-protection-order-model-legislation" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" target="_blank">Extreme Risk Protection Order</a> law (aka Red Flag law). Many <a href="https://americanhealth.jhu.edu/implementERPO" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" target="_blank">other states</a> followed and there are now 19 states with ERPO laws.</p><p><em>States with ERPO Laws: California, Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware, District of Columbia, Florida, Hawaii, Illinois, Indiana, Maryland, Massachusetts, Nevada, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, Oregon, Rhode Island, Vermont, Virginia, Washington.</em></p><p>These laws are <a href="https://rockinst.org/blog/what-does-the-research-say-about-extreme-risk-protection-orders-erpo/" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" target="_blank">essential to successful intervention</a> at the intersection of dangerousness and firearm access. They typically create a process for the removal of guns from the possession of an individual who demonstrates they are dangerous to themselves or others. </p><p>Do not assume that because your state has passed a law that it is being implementing properly! </p><p>Unfortunately, it appears the effectiveness of implementing the laws varies dramatically by state. One <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/gun-law-allowing-police-to-seize-weapons-from-potential-shooters-often-isnt-used-11636984981" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" target="_blank">recent report</a> indicated Florida used the law “2,355 times to temporarily remove guns last year, nearly half the national total.” New York, with a comparable population to Florida only used its law 255 times. </p><p>Passing a law is not the final answer, only the enabling part. Government representatives always focus on passing new laws so that they can say they “did something.” Passing a law is just the beginning of a process to create institutions and resources to use the law successfully to its intended purpose. We are not good at this and failure to enforce existing laws creates resistance to passing new laws. It is essential that <a href="https://ctb.ku.edu/en/table-of-contents/advocacy/direct-action/policy-enforcement/main" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" target="_blank">citizens hold their leaders to account on the enforcement of laws</a>.</p><p>The federal government should aid states in establishing ERPO laws and help with resources in implementing ERPO laws effectively. Statistics on ERPO actions should be collected nationally and reported by state and county. A clearinghouse of best practices and protection of rights should be established to share with states and localities.</p><p>Communities should develop proactive programs to encourage anonymous reporting of potentially dangerous people. But it is essential to build in guardrails to ensure it does not become a place to report the local “weirdo” who’s lifestyle is different or for personal vendettas. </p><p>A bipartisan bill was introduced in the Senate in 2018 titled <a href="https://www.congress.gov/bill/117th-congress/senate-bill/292/text" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" target="_blank">The Extreme Risk Protection and Violence Protection Act</a> yet it still is not passed and signed into law. Passing this Act would be an easy first step for the federal government to act.</p><p>The federal government should also codify a clearinghouse of resources and information available to improve school safety. The bipartisan <a href="https://www.congress.gov/bill/117th-congress/senate-bill/111" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" target="_blank">School Safety Clearinghouse Act</a> was introduced in 2019. After Uvalde, Senators brought the Act to the Senate floor for approval but the <a href="https://www.newsweek.com/chuck-schumer-blocks-school-safety-bill-named-after-parkland-victims-1710469" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" target="_blank">Senate Leader would not allow a vote</a>. Why is this so hard?</p><p>There is also an opportunity to pass a federal safe storage law that sets certain minimum requirements for manufacturers, dealers, and buyers with more options at the state level. </p><p>The federal government is more highly constrained in taking decisive action because health and safety is the domain of state and local governments. There are things it can do, but it is simply too hard to gain agreement among the diverse national interests. It can play an affirmative role by passing those two bipartisan non-controversial acts on School Safety and ERPO and additionally pass - <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Universal_background_check" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" target="_blank">Universal Background Checks</a>. </p><p>Twenty-two states and D.C. have various <a href="https://everytownresearch.org/solution/background-checks/" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" target="_blank">private sale reporting</a> requirements. A national law is needed to allow the <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Instant_Criminal_Background_Check_System" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" target="_blank">National Instant Criminal Background Check System</a> to track all gun sales and transfers. About one quarter of gun sales are conducted privately and not subject to a background check. There is tremendous public support for universal checks with polling support exceeding 80%. The National Rifle Association (NRA) has in the past agreed that all sales at gun shows should be subject to a background check. </p><p>Passing a Universal Background Check law would help to reduce illegal trafficking of guns, and in conjunction with ERPO Laws, provide a more comprehensive method of preventing dangerous people from gaining access to firearms. </p><p>Passing such laws would also show that our national legislators can work together to get something done on this issue. The nation needs to see success from their legislators in consensus laws on these issues. Not bills rammed through that pass with 51% votes, but with overwhelming bipartisan support. It would build trust and confidence to do more in the future.</p><p><em>Call, email, or write a letter to your STATE and LOCAL leaders demanding an Extreme Risk Law in your state if you do not have one. If you do have one, demand to know how the Law is being implemented, resourced, and institutionalized. Demand to know the status of safe storage laws in your state and what is being done to improve safety in that regard. </em></p><p><em>Call, email, or write (particularly if you are a firearm owner) your federal Representative and Senators and tell them that you want them to pass a common sense Universal Background Check law and the </em><a href="https://www.congress.gov/bill/117th-congress/senate-bill/292/text" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" target="_blank"><em>Extreme Risk Protection Order and Violence Protection Act</em></a><em>, and the </em><a href="https://www.congress.gov/bill/117th-congress/senate-bill/111" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" target="_blank"><em>School Safety Clearinghouse Act</em></a><em>.</em></p><p><strong>LONGER TERM: Find a new consensus approach forward to reduce the likelihood of future such events; Focus on collaboration and implementation of effective solutions within the constraints of law; Create serious and expansive research efforts to understand and intervene in a society that creates broken boys and men that choose to kill children.</strong></p><p>Our past approach has not worked - a mass shooting occurs; one political party calls for gun control; the other resists the proposals as ineffective and compromising of rights; another mass shooting; repeat. A different approach is needed.</p><p>To my friends that call for repeal of the Second Amendment and confiscation of firearms – please reconsider. Amending the Constitution requires a 2/3rd majority of both the House of Representatives and the Senate. They can barely pass anything with higher than 51% majorities. It must also be approved by 3/4ths of the states. The Constitution is by design difficult to change and the likelihood of repeal of the 2nd Amendment is close to nil for the foreseeable future.</p><p>Demanding repeal of the 2nd Amendment and confiscation of firearms is counterproductive. It hardens the resistance of firearm owners and prevents any meaningful action because they perceive every inch given as a step toward confiscation. These types of demands also cause people who do not own guns to buy them and those who do to buy more. </p><p>Gun sale <a href="https://www.fbi.gov/file-repository/nics_firearm_checks_-_month_year.pdf/view" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" target="_blank">background checks set records</a> during the Obama Administration, rising from 13 million to 27 million between 2009 and 2016. Those records were shattered in 2020 in response to riots and diminishment of law enforcement. Background checks have not subsided since 2020, rather, they have remained at record levels since the Biden Administration took office. Aggressive national gun control proposals have only led to sky rocketing gun sales.</p><p>To my friends that own firearms and think the only approach is to resist any change – please reconsider. Responsibility comes with rights. Resisting at all costs is not acceptable. Since 1989 there have <a href="https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/what-we-know-about-mass-school-shootings-mdash-and-shooters-mdash-in-the-u-s/" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" target="_blank">been thirteen mass shootings at schools</a> . With more than half of those (7) occurring in the past decade they are becoming more frequent and more deadly. Firearm owners must participate in developing effective responses to slow and stop this carnage at our schools. Firearm owners have a moral obligation and responsibility to lead in developing sensible and effective firearm safety policies and practices.</p><p>The focus of this blog post is mass public shootings at schools, but there is a broader issue that nearly 25,000 people in the U.S. committed suicide and 20,000 were murdered with firearms in 2020. Over 500 died in accidents involving firearms. This is unacceptable. The accessibility of firearms plays a role in these deaths. Curbing access by creating systems of background checks, eligibility restrictions on ownership, interventions to remove firearms from dangerous hands, comprehensive training requirements, and safe storage laws are not going to impinge on 2nd Amendment rights if firearms owners and their representatives work with others to create effective tools within the constraints of law.</p><p>The conversation among all concerned needs to shift from “gun control” to “firearm safety.” Changing the conversation in this manner can allow for actions that both protect the right of the public to own firearms and reduce firearm deaths. </p><p>All firearms are not the same and should be treated differently. A bolt action .22 rifle or a two-chamber shotgun are a far cry from an <a href="https://www.wsj.com/podcasts/the-journal/the-fight-over-banning-the-ar-15/02b82dd5-7847-4b60-aa29-decf197a88d6" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" target="_blank">AR-15-style semi-automatic rifle</a> with multi-round magazines. They should not be treated the same. Effective firearm safety policies and laws are more likely to be developed if this fact is accepted by all. </p><p>Eligibility for purchase of firearms may vary by type of firearm purchased. For example, an eighteen-year-old, or a person with a minor criminal background, or a person with mild and managed mental illness may be eligible to purchase a .22 caliber bolt action rifle to hunt or shoot varmints around their farm, but may not be able to buy a semi-automatic weapon or a handgun.</p><p>Requirements for purchase may also vary based on the type of firearm purchased. In addition to a basic NISC background check for all firearms, there may be longer wait periods for semi-automatic weapons and large ammunition purchases, and additional training and storage requirements. </p><p>I will say it again - what we have been doing is not working. It is time to change our approach on firearms. The first step is to acknowledge that we all want fewer deaths involving firearms. The second is to acknowledge the differences in culture that exist in our country from region to region and state to state. Urban and suburban people in safe communities think differently about firearms than those in rural areas or high crime neighborhoods. These are all legitimate viewpoints. </p><p>Trying to impose views not shared in other communities is wrong and only leads to stalemates and anger. What is acceptable in one region or state may not be acceptable in another. Find areas of agreement where national standards and policies make sense within the constraints of the law. If one thinks more robust policies and standards are needed within one’s home state or community work toward that. Lasting and substantial change comes from the consensus of a broad majority of the governed - not by edict. </p><p>Finally, this is not all about firearms - something is very wrong in our culture that young men choose to murder children in our schools. The overall level of violence that sees <a href="https://news.wttw.com/2022/04/25/police-42-people-shot-8-killed-over-weekend-chicago" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" target="_blank">eight people killed in Chicago</a> in a weekend, or <a href="https://abcnews.go.com/US/wireStory/judge-decide-wisconsin-parade-suspect-stand-trial-82258860" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" target="_blank">six people killed</a> by a man running them down at a Christmas parade is horrendous. The <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Suicide_in_the_United_States#:~:text=On%20average%2C%20adjusted%20for%20age,in%20more%20than%2030%20years." rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" target="_blank">suicide rate rose 30%</a> from 2000 to 2020. <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/mm7024e1.htm" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" target="_blank">Suicide attempts</a> among young girls rose over 50% in 2020. </p><p>There is <a href="https://www.hhs.gov/about/news/2021/12/07/us-surgeon-general-issues-advisory-on-youth-mental-health-crisis-further-exposed-by-covid-19-pandemic.html" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" target="_blank">a mental health crisis among young people</a> in America and it is getting worse according to the U.S. Surgeon General. He reports that even before the Covid-19 pandemic, “up to 1 in 5 children ages 3 to 17 in the U.S. having a mental, emotional, developmental, or behavioral disorder.” </p><p>Is it the <a href="https://www.aacap.org/AACAP/Families_and_Youth/Facts_for_Families/FFF-Guide/Children-And-Watching-TV-054.aspx#:~:text=Screen%20Time%20and%20Children&text=Children%20and%20adolescents%20spend%20a,spend%20up%20to%209%20hours." rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" target="_blank">constant presence of technology</a> in our lives? Is technology and <a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/internet/2018/05/31/teens-social-media-technology-2018/" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" target="_blank">social media</a> altering the development and personalities of children? Is it the total organization of children’s lives at the expense of <a href="https://www.unicef.org/sites/default/files/2018-12/UNICEF-Lego-Foundation-Learning-through-Play.pdf" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" target="_blank">initiative and imagination</a>? Is it the <a href="https://www.beyondintractability.org/bksum/putnam-bowling" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" target="_blank">destruction of community institutions</a> that provided guidance, guardrails, and social engagement? Is it the rapid decline in <a href="https://news.gallup.com/poll/341963/church-membership-falls-below-majority-first-time.aspx#:~:text=U.S.%20church%20membership%20was%2073,2010%20and%2047%25%20in%202020." rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" target="_blank">church membership</a> and participation since 2000? Is America’s <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/09c2c1e4-ad05-11e8-8253-48106866cd8a" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" target="_blank">obsession with identity groups</a> damaging the national identity and sense of belonging? Is it the prescribing of <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6154488/" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" target="_blank">psychotropic drugs to 10% of our children</a>? Is it the <a href="https://www.manhattan-institute.org/nation-dying-in-despair-and-family-breakdown-is-part-of-the-problem" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" target="_blank">breakdown of the family</a>? </p><p>I do not have the answers, but I know we need to get serious about asking the questions, begin an open national discussion, and demand that our government fund the study of these issues to support that discussion.</p><p><em>Call, email, or write your federal Representative and Senators and tell them how you feel about the need to shift the discussion from “gun control” to “gun safety” and your desires for action around issues of culture and cohesion in our country. </em></p><p><em>*****</em></p><p><em>DISTRIBUTION: Liberty Takes Effort shifted its distribution from social media to email delivery via </em><a href="https://substack.com/" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" target="_blank"><em>Substack</em></a><em> as a Newsletter. If you would like to receive distribution please email me at </em><a href="mailto:libertytakeseffort@gmail.com" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" target="_blank"><em>libertytakeseffort@gmail.com</em></a><em> To see archived blog posts since 2014 visit </em><a href="http://www.libertytakeseffort.com" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" target="_blank"><em>www.libertytakeseffort.com</em></a><em>,</em></p><p><em>DISCLAIMER: The entire contents of this website and newsletter are based solely upon the opinions and thoughts of the author unless otherwise noted. It is not considered advice for action by readers in any realm of human activity. Its purpose is to stimulate discussion on topics of interest to readers to further inform the public square. Use of any information in this site is at the sole choice and risk of the reader.</em></p>Liberty Takes Efforthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13398225334133635697noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8054521671768779399.post-75649143327152405082022-05-08T07:11:00.002-04:002022-05-31T07:22:35.820-04:00My House Price is Inflated – Should I Sell?<p><span style="background-color: white;">Average U.S. national house prices have increased to record levels.
</span> <span style="background-color: white;">Homeowners may view the current market
as an excellent opportunity to sell. </span> <span style="background-color: white;">While the market is high, there are also
indications that a correction may occur within the next few years.</span> <span style="background-color: white;">Selling near peak and waiting out a
correction to buy at a lower price is a potentially profitable option. </span> <span style="background-color: white;">In pursuing such action, it is important to
distinguish assumptions from facts in decision-making.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="background: white; color: black; mso-color-alt: windowtext;">In my last blog post, <a name="_Hlk101443425">“</a></span><span style="mso-bookmark: _Hlk101443425;"></span><a href="https://www.libertytakeseffort.com/2022/04/real-estate-and-first-time-buyer.html"><span style="mso-bookmark: _Hlk101443425;"><span style="background: white;">Real Estate
and the First Time Buyer</span></span></a><span style="mso-bookmark: _Hlk101443425;"></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span style="background: white;">,</span></span><span style="background: white; color: black; mso-color-alt: windowtext;">” I provided an assessment
of how the housing market arrived at its present state and explored possible
outcomes in the market in the coming two years.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>It was written for the benefit of the first-time buyer.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>This
post builds upon that analysis and explores options for the high equity owner
thinking of selling.</span><span style="background: white;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">There are many reasons to consider selling in the current
market.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>For example, one’s financial
portfolio may be disproportionately allocated to real estate due to the rise in
prices.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Or one might be at the limit of
the real estate capital gain tax exclusion ($250,000 single or $500,00 couple).<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Selling now would restart the two-year
exemption timeline on the next house and save significant taxation.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Maybe there were already plans to downsize or
retire or move to another job or make a vacation home or rental property into a
permanent residence.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">There are too many scenarios to assess in this limited space.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The
context of people’s lives and regional housing market conditions vary
considerably. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>So, the remainder of this
post will explore a single case study that can provide broad insight in many
scenarios.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span></span></p><a name='more'></a>For this analysis, assume the strategy is to sell in
anticipation of a significant market decline, and to then reenter the market
when a price correction occurs.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>This is
a <a href="https://www.investopedia.com/terms/m/markettiming.asp">market timing</a>
scenario.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>To successfully accomplish
this market timing strategy requires occupying temporary housing for up to two
years awaiting the market correction.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>In
an ideal situation the seller may own a vacation home or a vacant rental
property they can occupy full time for the necessary period while they extract
themselves from the market.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Those
without must rent and account for temporary housing costs while sitting out the
market.<o:p></o:p><p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">This strategy anticipates a significant housing market price
correction will occur in the coming two years.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>There is debate among experts over whether a correction will occur,
when, and to what extent; however, there are <a href="https://www.dallasfed.org/research/economics/2022/0329">increasing
numbers of reports</a> pointing in that direction. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Most do not anticipate a severe collapse such
as occurred in 2008; however, there is a <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/housing-crash-unlikely-but-correction-is-probable-2022-5">growing
body of opinion</a> that a significant correction may occur.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Any national correction is expected to have
broad regional variation. <o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">There is reason for concern that the U.S. economy is <a href="https://youtu.be/9ZyHaTtbTXE">facing serious headwinds</a>.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Inflation and interest rates are on the rise
and many experts think the Federal Reserve is not handling these issues
well.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><a href="https://fortune.com/2022/04/14/larry-summers-recession-likely-interest-rates-unemployment/">Concerns
a recession</a> is within two years are increasing.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The Ukraine War and the Chinese Covid
lockdown are exacerbating supply chain issues.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>The stock market is in <a href="https://www.schwab.com/resource-center/insights/content/market-correction-what-does-it-mean">correction
territory</a> (down over 10%) and may potentially extend declines to Bear
Market territory (down over 20%).<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>These
conditions may influence the housing market negatively but realize that
predicting the future is very risky.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Proceed with caution. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Mitigate
risk by knowing your circumstance and regional market well.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Selling one’s home is a major undertaking.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>It has many implications for a family.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="background: white; color: black; mso-color-alt: windowtext;">The analysis here is financially focused, but the intangible
things – disruption of lifestyle and stress – may be more important and deserve
full consideration.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Ultimately, the
decision will come to, “Is the potential gain of selling worth the risk and personal
disruption and stress of the process.”</span><span style="background: white;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Moving is considered one of the most stressful events in
life.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Some folks have a lot of
experience with multiple home sales in their lifetime.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>They have developed a knack for organizing an
efficient moving cycle process.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>They
have reduced their inventory of “stuff” to be carted from place to place. They
know how to efficiently perform renovations and improvements, and their
experience in this activity has proven profitable in the past.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>They view the process as a creative
adventure. They enjoy new places and transforming houses.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">At the other end of the spectrum are folks who have had one
or two homes in the past 30 years.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>They
may be recent empty nesters looking toward retirement or already have retired.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Maybe their home needs updating, and they
have accumulated “stuff” throughout their house, garage, and maybe even a
rented storage unit.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>To them, selling may
seem a daunting task.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>But the record
market prices may represent the best opportunity in a lifetime to transition. <o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">First, know that simply selling a home at a peak and buying
another equivalent home in the same market may be a losing proposition.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>That house down the street or across town is
also inflated. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The <a href="https://www.investopedia.com/costs-of-selling-home-5210656">transaction
costs</a> (e.g. agent fees, taxes and other closing costs) for the house you
are selling may be seven percent or more of the sale price.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>There will be moving, storage, and temporary
housing costs.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The house you buy will
have closing costs, updating, and furnishing requirements.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>If financing, there will be mortgage fees
and points.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>These new house transaction costs
may represent an additional five percent or more of the purchase price –
ensuring a loss.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">The remainder of this post will use a case study of a
hypothetical house in Florida to analyze the financial implications.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="background: white; color: black; mso-color-alt: windowtext;">In this case, the hypothetical house is in the Naples market.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The region has a high concentration of
retirees.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Over 50% of houses are </span><a href="https://www.redfin.com/news/all-cash-home-purchases-2021/"><span style="background: white;">bought with cash</span></a><span style="background: white; color: black; mso-color-alt: windowtext;">.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Much of the housing stock is seasonal second and third home
accommodation.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Despite a robust new home
builder presence, inventory is not keeping pace with demand.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">A national <a href="https://www.corelogic.com/intelligence/u-s-home-price-insights/">moderation
of the market</a> can result in much broader and more severe regional impact
based on circumstance and market type.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/id/wbna44091488">CNBC reported</a> on CoreLogic
data in 2011 that the Naples market suffered a 55% decline in prices following
the 2008 housing collapse.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Is this
likely again?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Probably not, but whatever
national average price correction occurs - it will likely be significantly
amplified in Florida – particularly if there is a recession and stock market
decline.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">A conservative approach will be taken here and use three
scenarios for analysis: 1) A minor moderation of prices; 2) a 10% regional
average price decline; and 3) a 20% regional average price decline. <o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="background: white; color: black; mso-color-alt: windowtext;">The first step is to determine accurately the </span><a href="https://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/060313/what-determines-your-cost-basis.asp"><span style="background: white;">Cost Basis</span></a><span style="background: white; color: black; mso-color-alt: windowtext;"> of the house to be sold.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Knowing this number is essential to
calculating capital gain tax implications.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Start with the sale price.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>In
this hypothetical case it is $400,000.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Then add expenses for fees and closing costs and improvements allowed by
the </span><a href="https://www.irs.gov/pub/irs-pdf/p523.pdf"><span style="background: white;">Internal Revenue Service</span></a><span style="background: white; color: black; mso-color-alt: windowtext;">.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Any costs of repairs or maintenance that are
necessary to keep your home in good condition but don’t add to its value or
prolong its life are not allowed.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>As
shown in the adjacent table “House Selling Cost Basis,” the Cost Basis of the
house rises to $437,000.</span> <span style="background: white;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjFOplAsCf2jlp9c1m_JJK6gn_x-NgykaXO1Yil7vLYBbVv7iemDlqcpEW6aeIRn0SdpE4g-lCGuXaDhCV8OqWZO6ILhKg-tHWwreQ0R-qQWHgSb07AlUpY6zF3INL3SUm3jX7rPO_0ZwNU2nQs50yak_8_hJk0WXgquSS3hsepgsHscUHMA6Mk-78H/s313/Cost%20Basis.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="263" data-original-width="313" height="263" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjFOplAsCf2jlp9c1m_JJK6gn_x-NgykaXO1Yil7vLYBbVv7iemDlqcpEW6aeIRn0SdpE4g-lCGuXaDhCV8OqWZO6ILhKg-tHWwreQ0R-qQWHgSb07AlUpY6zF3INL3SUm3jX7rPO_0ZwNU2nQs50yak_8_hJk0WXgquSS3hsepgsHscUHMA6Mk-78H/s1600/Cost%20Basis.jpg" width="313" /></a></div><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: justify;"><span style="text-align: left;">The second step is to
estimate the return on the sale of the current home. </span><span style="text-align: left;">An agent commission of 5-6% is typical if a
real estate agent is used.</span><span style="text-align: left;"> </span><span style="text-align: left;">According to
the National Association of Realtors 89% of sales are through a realtor.</span><span style="text-align: left;"> </span><span style="text-align: left;">There are also closing cost fees and
charges.</span><span style="text-align: left;"> </span><span style="text-align: left;">As indicated in the adjacent
table, “House Selling Peak Sale Price Return,” in the current market the owner
is expecting a $750,000 sale price.</span><span style="text-align: left;"> </span><span style="text-align: left;">This
results in net proceeds of $707,150, a net profit of $270,150, and a return on
investment of 62%.</span><span style="text-align: left;"> </span><span style="text-align: left;">Not bad!</span></div><p></p><p class="MsoNormal"><o:p></o:p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjvtW9BPR-0aLto6dCZm8T1ipiJQ8ITR1Tif9LwNTm4O3Gu9yNtjqUov88_70-QQ_XUf3SxxF8UNr4EbhwOeITW2ac77VfGxo_Lq9od093AFmaU7KZJElo39GYVu3qadCy19VMwS8LpDw9GzNwDW1B7zF2p-cl5odEADxB0P0cp7_vcozM8x8CniwM7/s310/House%20Sale%20Profit.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="263" data-original-width="310" height="263" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjvtW9BPR-0aLto6dCZm8T1ipiJQ8ITR1Tif9LwNTm4O3Gu9yNtjqUov88_70-QQ_XUf3SxxF8UNr4EbhwOeITW2ac77VfGxo_Lq9od093AFmaU7KZJElo39GYVu3qadCy19VMwS8LpDw9GzNwDW1B7zF2p-cl5odEADxB0P0cp7_vcozM8x8CniwM7/s1600/House%20Sale%20Profit.jpg" width="310" /></a></div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: justify;"><span style="text-align: left;">The third step is to estimate the transaction costs associated with purchasing the
new home.</span><span style="text-align: left;"> </span><span style="text-align: left;">Estimated closing costs are $7,000
and repairs and improvements are estimated at $35,000.</span><span style="text-align: left;"> </span><span style="text-align: left;">Rarely is a house purchased that is in
perfect condition.</span><span style="text-align: left;"> </span><span style="text-align: left;">It will have some
typical costs such as new flooring, painting, minor repairs, appliances, and
decoration.</span><span style="text-align: left;"> </span><span style="text-align: left;">This is a basic cosmetic
uplift budget.</span><span style="text-align: left;"> </span><span style="text-align: left;">A thorough examination of
a home for additional work such as roof or replacement windows may increase
those costs.</span></div><p class="MsoNormal">The fourth step is
to estimate the moving, storage, and temporary housing costs shown in the
tables below.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Again, if one owns a
vacation home or vacant rental property that can be used for temporary lodging
while waiting for a market correction all the better both for convenience and
financial outcomes.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>But many folks will
need to rent an apartment or house for the waiting period.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The table reflects a two-year temporary
housing period.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Shorter periods may have
lower costs.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiFjZLvdQrjf3S5Y1SMElmQEvwJXNG8Lhj8sXBvDRyuE16mJk3cNXdKT__eJVPLxsh_BzYyB6XI6St5t1k5dF2MuDlXQxjEqjMqiRotR5NM3DhVFwZbqPOp67OV6etJ80r9gHCfdu0kazffSv812QT7RLvOm9jqQr_yex3KUsOQihBBpQolfOdr0Lql/s313/Temporary%20Housing.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="83" data-original-width="313" height="83" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiFjZLvdQrjf3S5Y1SMElmQEvwJXNG8Lhj8sXBvDRyuE16mJk3cNXdKT__eJVPLxsh_BzYyB6XI6St5t1k5dF2MuDlXQxjEqjMqiRotR5NM3DhVFwZbqPOp67OV6etJ80r9gHCfdu0kazffSv812QT7RLvOm9jqQr_yex3KUsOQihBBpQolfOdr0Lql/s1600/Temporary%20Housing.jpg" width="313" /></a></div><o:p><div style="text-align: center;"> <div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi66rk03NAy_SkAPOgXmRjf1ZNhGZE6lUROSO4ujYGGL-MkPQzXObca_FBjI4IK463wy09phblAslPBMTUHbV_Olo9DjGmF4sDblLnHT9IFlLAACUogQkDeDlXf8rVzbLLub1CHbmLoRiHuD7x5bMUQGQ2jsIYsEJky1iLvyLXVQeDaQreW_eisqRLT/s310/Moving%20Storage.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="82" data-original-width="310" height="82" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi66rk03NAy_SkAPOgXmRjf1ZNhGZE6lUROSO4ujYGGL-MkPQzXObca_FBjI4IK463wy09phblAslPBMTUHbV_Olo9DjGmF4sDblLnHT9IFlLAACUogQkDeDlXf8rVzbLLub1CHbmLoRiHuD7x5bMUQGQ2jsIYsEJky1iLvyLXVQeDaQreW_eisqRLT/s1600/Moving%20Storage.jpg" width="310" /></a></div></div></o:p><p></p><p class="MsoNormal">The fifth step is to estimate the savings that arise from
selling the original home.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Operating a
home can be costly - particularly if there are high property taxes in the area
and if the home is part of a Homeowners
Association.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The adjacent table, “House
Operating Costs Saved,” provides the estimated savings for a full two years.<o:p></o:p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhTbGLVxWkuxn6gtyRpzKUZdlfPTUXozDMVjlDgZrly7ANCJszpIMwQRf178uItcjrYPrs6k0li7TTcAPE4YIjiYvDZcUN44W36XQIewWuOtlpR_TUb9tvWo0mVg-HzTmrFGnG3PnJRVPrcXh1ODrcoRtmqN35aM7Nr-ZSvzh74a6ZwDFW0jElZ855c/s313/Operating%20Costs%20Saved.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="143" data-original-width="313" height="143" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhTbGLVxWkuxn6gtyRpzKUZdlfPTUXozDMVjlDgZrly7ANCJszpIMwQRf178uItcjrYPrs6k0li7TTcAPE4YIjiYvDZcUN44W36XQIewWuOtlpR_TUb9tvWo0mVg-HzTmrFGnG3PnJRVPrcXh1ODrcoRtmqN35aM7Nr-ZSvzh74a6ZwDFW0jElZ855c/s1600/Operating%20Costs%20Saved.jpg" width="313" /></a></div><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="text-align: left;">The sixth step is to estimate the earnings from investing
the proceeds of the sale of the house during the two-year waiting period.</span><span style="text-align: left;"> </span><span style="text-align: left;">Given that the funds will be needed to
purchase the new home within two years they will have to be invested in very
conservative and liquid vehicles.</span><span style="text-align: left;"> </span><span style="text-align: left;">The
stock market is not a good place for these funds.</span><span style="text-align: left;"> </span><span style="text-align: left;">It is best to deposit them in money market funds
and short-term certificates of deposit. </span><span style="text-align: left;"> </span><span style="text-align: left;">Rates in these accounts are on the rise, but
for now can only be estimated at one percent return.</span><span style="text-align: left;"> </span><span style="text-align: left;">Such a low return is disappointing, but the
funds cannot be risked in the stock market and need to be available immediately
when the market correction occurs, and a new house becomes available.</span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Having the detailed estimates of all costs of executing this
market correction strategy it is possible to project outcomes.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>To fully understand the implications of this
activity it is better to look at a ten-year time horizon.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The table below shows three sale scenarios on
the left-hand column and three potential market outcomes across the top row
over a ten-year period.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">To understand what the table, please look at the Market Slow
Down column.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Under the No Sale scenario
in which we take no action and keep the original house for ten years that house
is projected to be worth $1,031,004.70 with low annual price increases going
forward over the next ten years.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>In the
next scenario where the original house is sold and the seller sits out the
market for six months, the projected value of the new house and any
savings/earnings from invested funds over ten years is $1,060.895.90 for a gain
of $29,891.20 over the period.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>In the
next scenario, where the original house is sold and the seller sits out the
market for two years, the projected value of the new house and savings/earnings
from invested funds over ten years is $1,076,207.40 for a gain of $45,202.70. <o:p></o:p></p>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjZYZDnPhFPcRLpf24qPiu4HanyS2ltbWb8hhwnKEbBJiDOBvjDJ4WS-dIdNmliRwV7a2Rtfm9_xfTHf8vAsQPxlHkbV3Qohfmezh-pcFOEeFddSeqR411HnXKRm9lN6V3GJ3y2qeVi6ldWo3fhWAAtqmIiH2P1Gn2F-SO8vEqUneNS2AL-k32PWrjE/s599/Sell%20and%20Buy%20Return%20Summary.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="232" data-original-width="599" height="155" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjZYZDnPhFPcRLpf24qPiu4HanyS2ltbWb8hhwnKEbBJiDOBvjDJ4WS-dIdNmliRwV7a2Rtfm9_xfTHf8vAsQPxlHkbV3Qohfmezh-pcFOEeFddSeqR411HnXKRm9lN6V3GJ3y2qeVi6ldWo3fhWAAtqmIiH2P1Gn2F-SO8vEqUneNS2AL-k32PWrjE/w400-h155/Sell%20and%20Buy%20Return%20Summary.jpg" width="400" /></a></div><br /><div style="text-align: justify;"><span style="text-align: left;">Notice the gain rises with the 10% Market Drop and 20%
Market Drop.</span><span style="text-align: left;"> </span><span style="text-align: left;">In these scenarios the
market timing has worked.</span><span style="text-align: left;"> </span><span style="text-align: left;">The original
house was sold near peak market, a correction occurred of 10% or 20%, and a new
home was purchased in that new pricing market.</span><span style="text-align: left;">
</span><span style="text-align: left;">The net remaining funds were invested in the stock market for the
remainder of the ten-year window with a conservative return of 5%.</span><span style="text-align: left;"> </span><span style="text-align: left;">As can be seen, under this scenario the gain
could be more than $200,000 over ten years.</span></div><p class="MsoNormal"><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">What is driving these returns?<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">First, the model assumes that the market correction is timed
right.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The seller gets the maximum price
for sale of their existing home, sits out of the market to catch the
correction, and reenters to buy a house up to 20% less than it was previously valued.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>But
even if there is just a market slow down there is still a modest gain of $29,891.20
sitting out the market for six months and $45,202.70 sitting out for two years.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Some of the gain is largely driven by capital gains tax
savings.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>It is very important to <a href="https://www.investopedia.com/taxes/capital-gains-tax-101/">understand
capital gains taxes</a> on both real estate and investments.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>When a house is sold, the seller is liable
for capital gains taxes on the proceeds.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>There is an exemption of up to $250,000 if single and $500,000 if a
couple when <a href="https://www.investopedia.com/taxes/capital-gains-tax-101/">selling
real estate</a>.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The home must be your permanent residence and
you must have lived in it for two years.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>In the case study, one can see that if the owner decides to stay in the
house for another ten years and then sell, the gain on the house exceeds the
$500,000 exemption.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Capital gains taxes
will be due on that excess.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Capital
gains taxes are typically 15% or 20% of the gain (see table adjacent).<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>By selling the house now, the gain is less
than $500,000 and is fully exempt from tax. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Again, have a complete understanding of
capital gains taxes if engaged in this activity.<o:p></o:p></p>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiuKP-wES_drm5MEgUTGoejQZWxXkF4g0MXK5FvRExFGk61oAOFvQYR_2dZxwg7q11RNgw0Jhdq2wC63iiUqnngl_BdRDqm3ffrk7b1ZcWplhv0VcSdEOZ42fgboGNbx4liwOwe9pqAgmR-cKw9X1YJgBMBtQf1jrTxEFe4uVocg7_sc3YsbeiERQ4F/s476/Long%20Term%20Cap%20Gain.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="123" data-original-width="476" height="104" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiuKP-wES_drm5MEgUTGoejQZWxXkF4g0MXK5FvRExFGk61oAOFvQYR_2dZxwg7q11RNgw0Jhdq2wC63iiUqnngl_BdRDqm3ffrk7b1ZcWplhv0VcSdEOZ42fgboGNbx4liwOwe9pqAgmR-cKw9X1YJgBMBtQf1jrTxEFe4uVocg7_sc3YsbeiERQ4F/w400-h104/Long%20Term%20Cap%20Gain.jpg" width="400" /></a></div><br /><div style="text-align: justify;"><span style="text-align: left;">There is also gain from the investment of the funds that
remain after the discounted house is purchased.</span><span style="text-align: left;">
</span><span style="text-align: left;">In this case study the original house was sold for $750,000.</span><span style="text-align: left;"> </span><span style="text-align: left;">In the 20% correction scenario the new house
is purchased for much less, leaving a balance of about $150,000 to be
invested.</span><span style="text-align: left;"> </span><span style="text-align: left;">In this case study we estimate
a 5% return on the investment annually and a 15% tax on any capital gains
generated by the investment. </span><span style="text-align: left;"> </span><span style="text-align: left;">These
returns have a positive impact over the ten years and beyond.</span></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><span style="text-align: left;"><br /></span></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><span style="text-align: left;"><p class="MsoNormal" style="background-color: white; color: #656565; font-family: "Times New Roman", Times, FreeSerif, serif; font-size: 13.2px;"><i>DISTRIBUTION: Liberty Takes Effort shifted its distribution from social media to email delivery via Substack as a Newsletter. If you would like to receive distribution please email me at libertytakeseffort@gmail.com</i></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="background-color: white; color: #656565; font-family: "Times New Roman", Times, FreeSerif, serif; font-size: 13.2px;"><i>DISCLAIMER: The entire contents of this website are based solely upon the opinions and thoughts of the author unless otherwise noted. It is not considered advice for action by readers in any realm of human activity. Its purpose is to stimulate discussion on topics of interest to readers to further inform the public square. Use of any information in this site is at the sole choice and risk of the reader.</i></p></span></div><p class="MsoNormal"><o:p></o:p></p><br /><br />Liberty Takes Efforthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13398225334133635697noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8054521671768779399.post-38195056240430339862022-04-12T10:17:00.004-04:002022-05-31T07:22:09.614-04:00Real Estate and the First Time Buyer<p>Home ownership is the key to wealth development in the
United States. Record high home prices are distorting the
real estate market such that many first-time buyers are unable to buy a home. A national average housing price correction
of 10-20% may be in the offing, but inflation and rising interest rates will
more than offset the benefit of lower prices to make housing more
unaffordable. Potential first time
buyers will need to be sophisticated, agile, and disciplined to position
themselves for opportunities that may arise in what will likely be a volatile
market in the next few years.</p><p class="MsoNormal"><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Home prices are high by nearly all measures, but there is
wide regional variation.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The CoreLogic
Home Price Index (HPI) posted the highest year-over-year growth in its <a href="https://www.corelogic.com/intelligence/u-s-home-prices-and-inflation/">44-year
history</a> by the end of 2021. CoreLogic last week reported 65 percent of
regional U.S. housing <a href="https://fortune.com/2022/04/06/overvalued-housing-markets-home-prices-mortgage-rates-corelogic/">markets
are overvalued</a> based on earnings to price ratios.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><a href="https://www.zillow.com/research/million-dollar-cities-2021-30655/">Zillow
reported</a> in February, 2022 that 481 cities nationwide have a typical home
value of at least $1 million and 49 more may join the list this year. <o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><u>How Did We Get Here?<o:p></o:p></u></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span></span></p><a name='more'></a>A perfect storm of decreased housing supply and increased demand
was underway in 2020.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The U.S. had a systemic housing supply <a href="https://www.npr.org/2022/03/29/1089174630/housing-shortage-new-home-construction-supply-chain#:~:text=By%20one%20estimate%2C%20the%20U.S.,cost%20to%20the%20typical%20house.">shortfall
of approximately 3 million homes</a> caused by ten years of under production; <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>homeowners
<a href="https://mortgageorb.com/homeowners-staying-in-homes-longer-in-current-market-redfin-finds">held
their houses</a> longer – 13.5 years in 2020, up from approximately 10 years
before the housing collapse of 2008;<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Millennials,
the largest generation by population, entered their prime home purchasing years
in that timeframe and accounted for <a href="https://www.fool.com/the-ascent/research/millennial-homebuying/#:~:text=Older%20millennials%20were%20responsible%20for,years%20of%20their%20mid%2D30s.">37%
of home purchases in 2020</a>. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>At the
same time, mortgage interest rates were historically low in the 4% range
following the 2008 market collapse.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Enter the Covid-19 pandemic and associated governmental policies to
further intensify the underlying issues of housing supply and demand. <o:p></o:p><p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span></span></p><!--more-->When Covid struck a systemic housing supply shortage was
exacerbated by labor and material shortages.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Remote work policies incentivized people to flee dense and locked-down
urban housing markets to airy suburban first or second homes.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The Federal Reserve lowered interest rates
further - resulting in sub-3% mortgage rates. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>This further incentivized Millennials to buy
their first home, and many others in the market to buy second or third homes. Investors
shifted into high gear. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>According to the
National Association of Realtors <a href="https://www.npr.org/2022/02/18/1081751190/first-time-homebuyers-are-getting-squeezed-out-by-investors">investors
purchased 22%</a> of homes in January 2022, up from 15% the previous year.<o:p></o:p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh8cli930Y5Uc8Fv8ce6uxcdEll01zAOgLxMZ68296Qv4EaZW0Zf2OcTasoxm5C6ZHFE3V-6lMcxOG_WsfRgOS4g3weafjxSwxM_fV9-bRvWGoBAb-rX6te9N6ge_HJ1zvS1GikY3XT-0D3arBnczylvDiXtV68ThimW4nSzitvzNmOZ6MhuAPrW_29/s618/Housing%20Cycle.jpg" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="372" data-original-width="618" height="241" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh8cli930Y5Uc8Fv8ce6uxcdEll01zAOgLxMZ68296Qv4EaZW0Zf2OcTasoxm5C6ZHFE3V-6lMcxOG_WsfRgOS4g3weafjxSwxM_fV9-bRvWGoBAb-rX6te9N6ge_HJ1zvS1GikY3XT-0D3arBnczylvDiXtV68ThimW4nSzitvzNmOZ6MhuAPrW_29/w400-h241/Housing%20Cycle.jpg" width="400" /></a></div><p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">There is scholarly work back to the
1800’s describing a 16 year <a href="https://extension.harvard.edu/blog/how-to-use-real-estate-trends-to-predict-the-next-housing-bubble/">housing
market cycle</a> captured in the adjacent illustration.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></p><p class="MsoNormal">Fundamentally, the cycle revolves around rising population
demand for housing and the new construction that must provide that
housing. The disconnect between these
two from 2006 to 2016 was the systemic problem that underpinned rising prices.</p><p class="MsoNormal"><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">The U.S. has a systemic housing supply and affordability
problem that will take long term efforts to rectify.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><a href="https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/housing-starts">Housing starts</a>
rise and fall between low rates of about one million and high rates of about 2
million.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>An annual rate of about 1.2
million is required to just sustain the demand of increased household growth
and life-cycle replacement of aging homes.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Housing starts dropped precipitously between 2006-2009 to about .5
million and did not attain replacement rate until 2016. This ten-year low rate
of housing construction created a shortfall of about 3 million homes that we
are still dealing with today.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">The latest housing reports in February, 2022 indicate a housing
start seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 1.769 million in February of 2022,
the highest since June of 2006.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>High
material costs are hindering further growth and building permits dropped 1.9%
in February.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>This may indicate a
stabilization in housing construction.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>It is essential that housing construction significantly exceed
replacement rate levels of 1.2 million to make up for the 2006-2016
shortfall.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">A sustained housing start rate of 1.75 million homes for six
years is required to address the housing supply shortfall.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Policy makers need to support sustained
housing construction and a broad portfolio of affordability, but that is a
topic for another day.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>If interested in
this topic watch a <a href="https://youtu.be/ZmVu6a5oQHM">video presented by
Harvard Extension</a> for some basic ideas on the issue.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">First time homebuyers, essential to the housing market, were
hit hardest in this hyper-inflated market.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>In 2021, According to the National Association of Realtors, sales to
first-time homebuyers fell from traditional levels of <a href="https://www.npr.org/2022/02/18/1081751190/first-time-homebuyers-are-getting-squeezed-out-by-investors">40%
to 27%</a> in January, 2022.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><u>Who Are First Time Buyers?<o:p></o:p></u></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">The median household income of sixty percent of America is less
than $85,000. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Households at that level
of income are highly challenged to purchase a home in the current market. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>In high-cost areas of the East and West Cost
many households in the top 20% of median income earners, with incomes exceeding
$141,000, are challenged to afford a home.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjryARGllgEDKiN1tMEyfEuJqQZ3s3d1sx9HfL_AStsq6YHG6-Q0OomY_dFWlc6ZjJjgr8fl-Q2qFYpT5NsUQAVZaSzFlm83bFSa43BWmUJvhF2sFPvHGaMQEyTbzWd0LcMZHtyICqYtZGK4HnzTxCOeS3-qxOpvWo8DV2HWgHyZk1-8bJgzIr4pvZ1/s735/Income%20Quintile.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="81" data-original-width="735" height="44" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjryARGllgEDKiN1tMEyfEuJqQZ3s3d1sx9HfL_AStsq6YHG6-Q0OomY_dFWlc6ZjJjgr8fl-Q2qFYpT5NsUQAVZaSzFlm83bFSa43BWmUJvhF2sFPvHGaMQEyTbzWd0LcMZHtyICqYtZGK4HnzTxCOeS3-qxOpvWo8DV2HWgHyZk1-8bJgzIr4pvZ1/w400-h44/Income%20Quintile.jpg" width="400" /></a></div><p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">The bottom fifty percent of households in America earn less
than $60,000 per year. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>A tried-and-true
rule of thumb for households buying a home is to spend about 30% of gross
income on housing.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Assuming a $60,000
household income about $18,000 per year can be allocated to Principle,
Interest, Taxes, and Insurance (PITI), and HOA fees.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Insurance and taxes vary by region but let us
assume the allocation of about $1,250 per month to principal and interest.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>This results in a maximum home purchase price
of about $300,000 at 4% interest.</p><p class="MsoNormal"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh18eTxblXamofaeFuYajr2-zjEfSX8eso7uC7bLijn7fj_KOzUwZRfxUsA5WNECd7w0FMXwzGA0wTyOeXsIPJaiDqs03YyFaVcqRCvxGbeXJfDM_-YTxS6ruE2ZA27H0yCRDopD_eyq7ZUDoHDlM5ZduJLIMJohmcJmnn7IJGrEMolsOghwUsu4IBG/s627/Current%20Cost.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em; text-align: center;"><img border="0" data-original-height="81" data-original-width="627" height="51" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh18eTxblXamofaeFuYajr2-zjEfSX8eso7uC7bLijn7fj_KOzUwZRfxUsA5WNECd7w0FMXwzGA0wTyOeXsIPJaiDqs03YyFaVcqRCvxGbeXJfDM_-YTxS6ruE2ZA27H0yCRDopD_eyq7ZUDoHDlM5ZduJLIMJohmcJmnn7IJGrEMolsOghwUsu4IBG/w400-h51/Current%20Cost.jpg" width="400" /></a></div><p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><u>How Will Rising Interest Rates Impact the First Time
Buyer?<o:p></o:p></u></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">The price challenge is not the only battle the first-time
buyer is facing.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Affordability is
dramatically impacted by mortgage interest rates.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Those rates are rising rapidly.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">The Federal Reserve (FED) is raising interest rates to tame
exploding inflation that hit 40 year highs in <a href="https://www.bls.gov/opub/ted/2022/consumer-prices-for-food-up-7-9-percent-for-year-ended-february-2022.htm">February
at 7.9%. </a><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/government-spending-fuels-inflation-covid-relief-pandemic-debt-federal-reserve-stimulus-powell-biden-stagflation-11645202057">FED’s
own policies and federal fiscal policy</a> exacerbated pandemic social and
economic disruption to create inflationary high demand.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2022/04/04/jamie-dimon-says-inflation-ukraine-war-may-dramatically-increase-risks-for-us.html">war
in Ukraine</a> only exacerbates the situation. The FED is trying to raise rates
in a manner that will achieve a soft landing out of inflation, but there is growing
concern their actions <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/recession-risk-is-rising-economists-say-11649592002?st=2niurolypqb1q8k&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink">may
result in a recession</a>. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">The FED began <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/government-spending-fuels-inflation-covid-relief-pandemic-debt-federal-reserve-stimulus-powell-biden-stagflation-11645202057">increasing
its prime lending rate</a> in quarter percent increments in March and will
likely further raise rates .25 to .5 percent at each of its six remaining
meetings this year.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>This will not stop
inflation from rising.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The sentiment of
many is that inflation will get worse before it gets better, and rate increases
may be needed into 2024. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/petercohan/2022/04/01/3-powerful-economic-insights-from-larry-summers/?sh=303553d33b1b">Larry
Summers</a>, former Clinton Administration Treasury Secretary and Obama
Administration key economic advisor says, “To beat inflation, the Fed has to
raise interest rates higher than the rate of inflation,” as was required in the
1980’s under FED Chairman Paul Volker. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgWQIz9a3vTqhnLkBCBqqvrpoUShl5hBFTeLmuboH3E4bBiXCvI5D9IU3guaVbaq6tGdXkXa0H8kwVwTlKNHPLFIt3-VP1mGVna6caLT5ycinLGs87X0dzlo-qxZxg32CWI5X6Q-t1e3l40i5TU7mg2xeu2OIR7YYWcyfSxY634TzhK-uFGIZHW7Fc7/s346/Buying%20Power.jpg" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="211" data-original-width="346" height="195" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgWQIz9a3vTqhnLkBCBqqvrpoUShl5hBFTeLmuboH3E4bBiXCvI5D9IU3guaVbaq6tGdXkXa0H8kwVwTlKNHPLFIt3-VP1mGVna6caLT5ycinLGs87X0dzlo-qxZxg32CWI5X6Q-t1e3l40i5TU7mg2xeu2OIR7YYWcyfSxY634TzhK-uFGIZHW7Fc7/w320-h195/Buying%20Power.jpg" width="320" /></a></div>In response to the
FED’s actions, mortgage rates have quickly climbed to a <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/mortgage-rates-continue-to-rise-11649343097">national
average of 4.72%. </a><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>They appear to be
on their way toward more <a href="https://themortgagereports.com/61853/30-year-mortgage-rates-chart">historical
average levels</a> in the 6-8% range (the historical average is 7.81%).<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p><p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Increased mortgage rates decrease purchasing power dramatically.
<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Assuming a consistent $1,250 per month
allocation of gross income to principal and interest the adjacent chart shows how
powerful interest rate rises can be.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> <br /> </span><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><u>Will A Housing Price Correction Help?<o:p></o:p></u></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">If prices dropped 10% rising interest rates would offset any
benefit to make housing less affordable. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>See the table below for the impact of rising
rates on mortgage payment and total interest paid over 30 years. </p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgihGLR7-T1xMYgPMoYK7-w64Lc5k4wi6oS_wRZ8xx04u05tIIJZ0BMUv7CWwghK3dXog0ESYMSmKiwZTY_L5MguY_3a3QzTuiGn839NnnMcuekurL6d37bC3PuJpvyDlbnxhmGsVlRokRqhMTw6BAVsMS6p7QSfYAQNCWIoEgouoAH6sQ40MBHNBMn/s627/Mortgage%20Payment.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="162" data-original-width="627" height="104" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgihGLR7-T1xMYgPMoYK7-w64Lc5k4wi6oS_wRZ8xx04u05tIIJZ0BMUv7CWwghK3dXog0ESYMSmKiwZTY_L5MguY_3a3QzTuiGn839NnnMcuekurL6d37bC3PuJpvyDlbnxhmGsVlRokRqhMTw6BAVsMS6p7QSfYAQNCWIoEgouoAH6sQ40MBHNBMn/w400-h104/Mortgage%20Payment.jpg" width="400" /></a></div><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p><p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><u>Will There Be A Price Correction?<o:p></o:p></u></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">The housing price spike is inconsistent with historical
norms.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Home prices from <a href="https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MSPUS">1979 to 2019</a> appreciated at
an average annual rate of about 4.25% from $62,600 to $327,100.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Of course, there were peaks and troughs in
that period.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The <a href="https://www.corelogic.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/4/2021/06/report-special-report-evaluating-the-housing-market-since-the-great-recession.pdf">2008
housing collapse</a> saw a 33% decrease in the CoreLogic Home Price Index.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Any correction in the present will not
likely be as extreme, but when compared with historical appreciation, a
national average correction of up to 20% is possible with dramatic state
variation.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Housing markets are regional and local, rural to urban.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The national average price decline in the
2008 collapse was widely varied among states with a range from -2% in South
Dakota to -60% in Nevada.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>There was also
a timing variation from peak-to-trough of three years from September, 2005 to
September, 2008.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>All markets will not
slow or depreciate at the same time or at the same pace.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>There are specific market characteristics
that indicate the risk of price decline is higher in the Northeast, South, and
Southwest <a href="https://www.corelogic.com/intelligence/potential-risks-of-price-declines-in-the-real-estate-market/">according
to CoreLogic</a>. <o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><u>What about the first-time buyer?<o:p></o:p></u></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">The first-time buyer is likely renting and regrets not
building equity in a home.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>They see
inflation pushing rents up rapidly.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>They see prices and buyer competition remaining high.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>They suspect prices may fall at some
point.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>They get conflicting advice on
whether to get in the market now before rates increase further or wait until
prices drop (assuming they do).<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The situation is complex, there is no crystal
ball, only estimates of what is to come.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Most of it is out of the first-time buyer’s control.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Try to resist the fear of missing out (FOMO) emotion and
stick to as much as possible to hard facts.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Apply solid rules of thumb on how much of your income should go to
housing.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Continue to look for houses
but evaluate them very critically to ensure value is real.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Avoid worry about that which is beyond your control
and instead focus on what you can control:<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>get your house in order, continue to look, critically assess properties,
watch your local market closely, and be prepared for the opportunity that comes
your way.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Prices may decline; however, as indicated in this paper,
price declines would have to be much more than 10% to offset rising interest
rates.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>This can be calculated as
discussed earlier.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Regardless of how
deep it goes, it will have an impact on the purchasing climate of multiple
offers, cash buyers, and above asking price offers.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Houses will begin to remain on the market
longer.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Less competition will increase
seller uncertainty and increase flexibility. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>It may just be enough to find an opportunity.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">There are ways to battle rising interest rates and make
yourself a better borrower.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Though the
national average interest rate is 4.72%, you can obtain a mortgage at a lower
rate.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Join a credit union.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Credit unions are often the lowest cost
lenders.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>For example, Navy Federal
Credit Union offers a conventional loan rate as low as 3.75% today – nearly a
full percent lower than the average.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Work on improving your credit score.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>If prices decrease enough and you save a little more, maybe you can get
to a 20% down payment and avoid Private Mortgage Insurance (PMI) and get a better
rate.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Know the difference between the <a href="https://www.consumerfinance.gov/ask-cfpb/what-is-the-difference-between-a-mortgage-interest-rate-and-an-apr-en-135/#:~:text=An%20annual%20percentage%20rate%20(APR)%20is%20a%20broader%20measure%20of,higher%20than%20your%20interest%20rate.">Interest
Rate and Annual Percentage Rate</a> (APR) and shop for best APR.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Increase your income and savings rate for a larger down
payment.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Seek out the promotion now, get the new job
now, take the second job now, always raise your hand for the overtime. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Get your house in order and cut
expenses.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Get a roommate, get married,
meet at a friend’s house instead of the new brewery, make your coffee and lunch
at home, etc.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Frugality is a key
component to the building of wealth. <o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Refine your search area and become an expert on everything
real estate in the market you desire.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Have
a good relationship with a Buyer’s Agent that works that area.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Build spreadsheets on sales in the local
area.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Watch for lengthening time on market.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Do a comparable home analysis on each home
you think you will bid on.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Be an
expert!<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Consider a move to another market that is not inflated but is
growing and may be a better place to buy a first home while the market
transitions. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Particularly for remote
workers there is a great opportunity to explore other markets for a few
years.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Make it an adventure.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>A move does not have to be permanent.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>After
the housing market works itself out you could always move again to a more ideal
location that suits your personal desires. <o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">There are two types of appreciation – natural and
forced.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Natural appreciation is the
growth in the market.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>If there is a
price decline in the market of 10-20%, there will be greater opportunity for
natural appreciation when the market returns to normal.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>This will increase equity more quickly and
offer better opportunities when lower rates offer refinancing
opportunities.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Forced appreciation
reflects the equity you create in property by the improvements you make.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Look at houses for what you can make them
with your own effort rather than looking for the HGTV perfect house that some
flipper has renovated.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Look for the worst
house in the best neighborhood.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Consider unconventional methods.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>One option is to find an off-market house and
convince the owner to make a sale.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Your Buyer’s
Agent may be willing to use their mass mailing resources to send mailers to a
neighborhood of interest to you in the hopes of finding a potential seller
thinking about selling.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>They could avoid
the hassles of listing on the open market and both the buyer and seller could
benefit from reduced transaction costs.</p><p class="MsoNormal" style="background-color: white; color: #656565; font-family: "Times New Roman", Times, FreeSerif, serif; font-size: 13.2px;"><i>DISTRIBUTION: Liberty Takes Effort shifted its distribution from social media to email delivery via Substack as a Newsletter. If you would like to receive distribution please email me at libertytakeseffort@gmail.com</i></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="background-color: white; color: #656565; font-family: "Times New Roman", Times, FreeSerif, serif; font-size: 13.2px;"><i>DISCLAIMER: The entire contents of this website are based solely upon the opinions and thoughts of the author unless otherwise noted. It is not considered advice for action by readers in any realm of human activity. Its purpose is to stimulate discussion on topics of interest to readers to further inform the public square. Use of any information in this site is at the sole choice and risk of the reader.</i></p>Liberty Takes Efforthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13398225334133635697noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8054521671768779399.post-54822301272893052292022-03-21T09:11:00.004-04:002022-05-08T06:27:36.299-04:00Russia's Illegal War Upon Ukraine<p> <i>Author Note: I have been on hiatus for several months due
to travel and simply being too busy in retirement with other priorities. I
still intend to blog but not as frequently.
The war in Ukraine, filled with unspeakable horror and sorrow weighs on
many people as they confront video of the suffering of the Ukrainian people. Some folks have asked for my opinion on the
war and its implications. I offer my thoughts here for your consideration.</i></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">A settlement of the Russia-Ukraine War will likely be agreed
in the coming weeks as Russia’s military objectives move further from reach and
Western solidarity and support of Ukraine intensify.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>In this fourth week of battle the outcome is
coming into focus.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Russian President
Vladimir <a href="https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/ukrainealert/inside-vladimir-putins-criminal-plan-to-purge-and-partition-ukraine/">Putin’s
original plan</a> to quickly take control of the Ukrainian capital at Kyiv,
install a puppet government, and establish a compliant Belarus-type satellite
state failed.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>It appears Russia is now preparing
the groundwork for a best possible negotiated outcome, though Putin will likely
continue to take escalatory steps to weaken Ukrainian will and intimidate its
Western supporters until a final settlement is reached.<o:p></o:p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEiFQoslPdKn6w1lGLPCNzY1twZZbiGT3uZEvN8i-U4hgnk0vqZBzEVc1uClD_15NXl1Psbzm-B-EKT6pyyupZ3XkeMRhJfxXGPfePmuoY6QYI7S8emdVoNUc7D6P5WwfAWazVRPWotjiOcfjH_0-wIPjXqjO9Xm-wYfKT4ccwRg1CgKqp-TC7u7La-0=s1280" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;" target="_blank"><img border="0" data-original-height="1052" data-original-width="1280" height="263" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEiFQoslPdKn6w1lGLPCNzY1twZZbiGT3uZEvN8i-U4hgnk0vqZBzEVc1uClD_15NXl1Psbzm-B-EKT6pyyupZ3XkeMRhJfxXGPfePmuoY6QYI7S8emdVoNUc7D6P5WwfAWazVRPWotjiOcfjH_0-wIPjXqjO9Xm-wYfKT4ccwRg1CgKqp-TC7u7La-0=s320" width="320" /></a></div><p class="MsoNormal"><span></span></p><a name='more'></a>Russia incorrectly assessed the unity, resolve, and <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/ukraine-russia-military-comparison-1.6365115">capabilities
of Ukraine</a>. It overestimated its own
<a href="https://www.newsweek.com/russia-has-failed-ukraine-initial-military-campaign-think-tank-1689797">military
capabilities</a> as its air forces proved <a href="https://rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentary/mysterious-case-missing-russian-air-force">incapable
of establishing essential air superiority</a> and <a href="https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-march-11">ground
forces are bogged down</a> in subpar equipment, with inadequate logistics. Russian ground force soldiers are largely <a href="https://www.hrw.org/reports/2002/russia/russia1102-01.htm">conscripts</a>
(draftees) that are both misinformed and untrained, and seemingly unable to perform basic formation tactics. The Pentagon estimates <a href="https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/us-officials-estimate-7000-russian-troops-dead-in-ukraine/">7,000
of them have lost their lives</a> as a result.<p></p><p class="MsoNormal"><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Leadership in the field is highly concentrated at the top with
officers holding tactical knowledge and decision-making authority (unlike the
U.S. where professional NCOs act and maneuver in response to changing
situations.)<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/ukraine-russian-officer-elite-decimated-9-who-were-killed-in-combat-2022-3">Thirteen
senior commanders</a> have reportedly been killed on the battlefield, including
five general officers. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The loss of
leadership and a combined casualty rate of dead and wounded estimated at over
25,000 approaches a level that the force can no longer fight.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>A casualty rate of ten percent in a single
unit is sufficient to make the unit ineffective.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Putin also incorrectly assumed that two decades of Western complacency
in response to Russian provocations would continue. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>In addition to extensive economic sanctions, the
U.S., NATO, and other democracies are <a href="https://time.com/6155330/ukraine-invasion-us-military-support/">supplying
the Ukrainians</a> with lethal and effective equipment, and probably
intelligence. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Calls for more expansive military
aid (e.g. Polish MiG-29s and No Fly Zones) have been rejected.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The Biden Administration and other
contributors are walking a fine line of supporting Ukraine, while simultaneously
avoiding a misstep that leads to direct confrontation with the largest nuclear
armed country in the world.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Seeing the suffering and horror every day evokes
an emotional response to answer affirmatively every request for help.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>But Western leaders must judge how much might
be too much and provoke an escalatory, even nuclear response.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>That is tough and critics
should should be thoughtful in criticizing these difficult
decisions.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">In the coming weeks, Putin will likely continue pressuring
his military to hang on as long as possible to give him leverage in
negotiations - but time works against him.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>He will likely continue, and maybe expand, terrorizing the Ukrainian
civilian population with missile attacks to weaken the will of their government
to continue fighting and instead to strike a deal.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>European governments will probably be
pressured by strikes in Western Ukraine to slow the flow of materiel and
intelligence support to the Ukrainians.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Domestically, Putin will probably prepare his country for
the failure and divert blame from himself by: <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>using his propaganda apparatus to place him as
the sole defender of Mother Russia; <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><a href="https://www.timesofisrael.com/putin-said-to-be-conducting-internal-purge-of-military-generals-intel-personnel/">blaming
his intelligence community for misleading him and his generals for being
incompetent</a>; accusing his industrial <a href="https://www.politico.eu/article/russia-military-corruption-quagmire/">oligarchs
of stealing money from military industry</a>; and declare independent media and
<a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/news/putin-opponents-scum-traitors-repression/">opposition
leaders as traitors</a>.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Simultaneously, he will use his long-time foreign minister
Sergie Lavrov to <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/8c235262-265e-4318-a925-bc167b83cc3e">negotiate
a settlement</a>, through the good offices of Turkey and Israel, that meets many
of Putin’s objectives. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Ukraine will
probably agree to a form of neutrality, in exchange for Russian withdrawal, that includes not pursuing European Union or NATO membership.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Europe and the U.S. have given Zelensky every
indication it will neither be offered nor approved anyway.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>He likely also agree to the incorporation of
Crimea into Russia and the sovereignty of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions in
Eastern Ukraine, but insist on further detailed negotiation of the precise borders
to absorb largely ethnic Ukrainian cities into Ukraine.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">The immediate crisis of conflict in Ukraine that has
produced millions of refugees; over $100 billion in destruction to property;
and the collapse of the Ukrainian economy could be over and Russian forces
withdrawn from Ukraine within a few months.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Ukrainian President Zelensky will then, by necessity, focus on restoring
his country.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Putin will walk with a bloody nose and a diminished military prestige, but with most of what he
wanted. He will continue to pursue his geostrategic goals by other means. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Putin is not insane - he is the authoritarian
leader of a nuclear armed kleptocracy. He perceives himself as an historic
leader of a nation that is not European or Asian, but unique to itself and
deserving of an elevated placement in the world order.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>He believes that greatness has been denied
Russia by a hostile West.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>His purpose is
to <a href="https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3167918/grand-narrative-driving-putins-vision-strong-and-spiritually-pure">restore
Russia to its “proper place.” </a><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>He has
been consolidating power internally and maneuvering externally to restore Greater
Russia for over two decades.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>His actions
went largely unpunished by a complacent West.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Hence, he mistakenly thought he could go further with the absorption of
Ukraine.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Russia’s aggression against Ukraine laid bare Russia’s authoritarian
expansionist intent.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>It also illuminated
a global synergy of authoritarianism that represents a larger and longer-term
threat to democracies.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Putin will not give up his goals
and dreams.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>He will <a href="https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2022-03-18/russias-illusions-about-the-west-are-over-lavrov-says">adjust
to achieve them in a different way</a> – in coordination with China and under
China’s leadership. More on that in my next blog post – “Wake Up America!”<o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal"><br /></p><p class="MsoNormal"><i>DISTRIBUTION: Liberty Takes Effort shifted its distribution from social media to email delivery. Please share with your friends and family via email or social media if you think these posts would interest them. It will soon experiment with using Substack for distribution as a Newsletter.</i></p><p class="MsoNormal"><i>DISCLAIMER: The entire contents of this website are based solely upon the opinions and thoughts of the author unless otherwise noted. It is not considered advice for action by readers in any realm of human activity. Its purpose is to stimulate discussion on topics of interest to readers to further inform the public square. Use of any information in this site is at the sole choice and risk of the reader.</i></p>Liberty Takes Efforthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13398225334133635697noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8054521671768779399.post-15736175000542555092021-05-31T12:37:00.006-04:002022-05-29T10:59:15.934-04:00 Memorial Day – what happened to the parades and walks in cemeteries?<p> I vividly recall from my childhood the prominence of
Memorial Day among the pantheon of holidays. It was one of the two big civic holidays. The other being the Fourth of July. At a young age I could sense the difference between the two – one celebratory and one solemn. Memorial Day is larger in my memory. The holiday was specifically to remember the
dead of war, but the event was broader in that it was also an opportunity to visit
and reflect more generally on relatives and friends who had passed. It also related to the continuation of a tradition that
emerged in the mid-1800s that made cemeteries places for peaceful meditation with
nature’s beauty and communing with one’s family and friends – both living and
dead. As can be said of many traditions –
times have changed.</p><p class="MsoNormal"><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">After the Civil War ended many communities began to hold spring
memorial gatherings to remember the war dead. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>In 1868, a Northern veteran organization, the
<a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Grand_Army_of_the_Republic" target="_blank">Grand Army of the Republic</a>, formalized and spread the growing tradition by
calling for “<a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Memorial_Day" target="_blank">Decoration Day</a>” to be a national day of remembrance. Each spring
communities would gather for the purpose of “strewing with flowers, or
otherwise decorating the graves of comrades who died in defense of their
country during the late rebellion.”<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></p><span><a name='more'></a></span><p class="MsoNormal">Later, the immensity
of losing another half million people in two World Wars, and conflicts in both
Korea and Vietnam in the 20<sup>th</sup> Century inculcated the holiday into
the national psyche.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgJC0a6kLwpm1v5HJjOPgrz1mXEvwgLxByb_XBC9hfOXpRLCZmnhRDMtPQ01vQopIJ3qQBkfNEtzrZmqJPljJpBSigkTrMnr9LipB5LiV7Vl0sp9fdgwPMszmJV3mq-E2KSJiUyHZAOYf0/s720/GAR+small.jpg" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="540" data-original-width="720" height="240" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgJC0a6kLwpm1v5HJjOPgrz1mXEvwgLxByb_XBC9hfOXpRLCZmnhRDMtPQ01vQopIJ3qQBkfNEtzrZmqJPljJpBSigkTrMnr9LipB5LiV7Vl0sp9fdgwPMszmJV3mq-E2KSJiUyHZAOYf0/w320-h240/GAR+small.jpg" width="320" /></a></div>In 1971, the <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Uniform_Monday_Holiday_Act" target="_blank">Uniform Monday Holiday Act</a> created Columbus Day
and renamed Decoration Day to Memorial Day.
These holidays would hence forth occur on Mondays. Washington’s Birthday and Labor Day were also
moved to Mondays. This was the start of
the three-day mini-vacation weekend in the United States.<p></p><p class="MsoNormal"><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">My hometown of Randolph, Massachusetts grew substantially
after World War II from a small community of shoe manufacturing, farming, and
ice harvesting to a commuter suburb of Boston.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>The Greatest Generation of World War II and their Baby Boom children
established neighborhoods of modest ranches and Cape style homes in the town. The
population of about 10,000 in 1950 exploded to 28,000 in 1970. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Simultaneously, the faith community was
growing and diversifying. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>[ I wrote a
detailed piece about the town in <a href="https://www.libertytakeseffort.com/2019/04/the-recent-creation-of-facebook-group.html" target="_blank">Hometown Nostalgia</a> ] <o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">The Protestant faith dominated the town through most of its
history with protestant denominations dominating the center of town with
classic New England steepled churches.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The
Central Cemetery was the final resting place when Protestants died.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>In 1845, the growing Roman
Catholic Community purchased land to build St. Mary’s Church and another parcel
to create its cemetery.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The Jewish
population in town exploded during the baby boom years to become 25% of the
population by 1970.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>That growing faith
community established Temple Beth Am and a memorial cemetery commonly known as
Lindwood Memorial Park. <o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">A generation shaped by war and strong religious observance
led and shaped the community. <o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Veterans’ posts were commonplace socialization venues for
World War II and Korea veterans, but they also provided child and youth
development activities.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>They sponsored
Little League teams and other activities. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The American Veterans (Amvets) Post in town
organized and financially supported three Drum and Bugle Corps for the town’s
children.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">The Amvets, Veterans of Foreign Wars (VFW), and American
Legion joined with social organizations like the Elks and Rotary Clubs in town
to organize and sponsor two parades each year.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>The Memorial Day and Fourth of July parades were powerful
traditions.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Each could stretch a mile
in length along a three-mile route lined with people four deep.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The Amvets Post had a color guard of
uniformed veterans with shiny silver helmets to lead the parade. The towns drum
and bugle corps, high school and junior high school bands, cheerleaders and
twirlers, Boy Scouts, Girl Scouts, and Police and Fire Departments all
participated. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Children rode along the
parade route with wheels decorated with baseball card flappers and crepe paper
streamers.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Even as a child I could sense the difference between the two
holidays and their associated parades.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The
Fourth of July parade was celebratory while the Memorial Day parade was more
solemn.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The Fourth of July parade ended
with cook outs and fireworks.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The
Memorial Day Parade ended with visits to the three large religious cemeteries
of the Jewish, Protestant, and Roman Catholic faiths.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>A
religious invocation would be heard, the Star-Spangled Banner played, the Pledge
of Allegiance recited by hundreds in attendance, town officials would speak, a
poem honoring veterans killed in war would be read, and taps played at the
conclusion. These traditions reinforced the bonds of community.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>They exposed children to solemn traditions as
a shared experience of community. <o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">What was once attended by thousands is lucky to draw a few
dozen observers, beyond the participants, in a much-abbreviated march directly
from town center to the cemeteries today.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>I appreciate those that make the effort to continue honoring the sacrifice
of our war dead.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>I cannot help but
wonder what the cost will be for our wholesale abandonment of traditions like
these in a single generation.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">After the conclusion of the Memorial Day parade and
ceremonies, the observance of the holiday would continue at a more personal
level for many families.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Families would
walk about the cemeteries to visit the graves of relatives, but also to
reminisce and pass on to children and grandchildren memories of family, friends,
neighbors, and community members whose graves they passed during the walk.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>As a child this shaped my mind toward an
appreciation of both genealogy and cemeteries.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></p><p class="MsoNormal">Cemeteries have evolved over time.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>According to Keith Eggener, author of <i><u>Cemeteries</u></i>,
up until about the 1830s burials were largely conducted on family land, in churchyards,
or municipal plots or potters fields for the poor.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Transcendentalism" target="_blank">Transcendentalism</a>, which we associate with
authors like Ralph Waldo Emerson and Henry David Thoreau, changed the way we
looked at cemeteries.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Large tracts,
often with grand entry gates to mark the transition from one world to another
were prominent.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Winding roads, planted
with magnificent greenery, and decorated with works of art and highly
decorative tombstones became places of escape and meditation and gathering.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><a href="https://mountauburn.org/?cache" target="_blank">Mount Auburn Cemetery</a> in Cambridge, MA was
the first of these and remains one of its most beautiful with sculptural art to
challenge a museum and a collection of trees and greenery to challenge any
botanical garden.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>I recommend it for a
day trip.</p><p class="MsoNormal"><o:p></o:p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgEMTIKu06-SKqrWfKuDF027wGaC1cG1peRPTphPf-qUOdej8MCV05boshdjnxlofseXPAYkkTN3XSvqPm_ZMYKFOB3PvVTvof1oUuiZXIUflStaox9cxS2QuTDCb0XQ1ti2QQwOJ9Vz84/s2048/mount+auburn.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1365" data-original-width="2048" height="266" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgEMTIKu06-SKqrWfKuDF027wGaC1cG1peRPTphPf-qUOdej8MCV05boshdjnxlofseXPAYkkTN3XSvqPm_ZMYKFOB3PvVTvof1oUuiZXIUflStaox9cxS2QuTDCb0XQ1ti2QQwOJ9Vz84/w400-h266/mount+auburn.jpg" width="400" /></a></div><br /><p class="MsoNormal"><br /></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Cemeteries of that time and later were deliberately placed
outside of the center of a city or town in more rural areas.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The cost of land was cheaper, but as
important was a desire to escape the trappings of mortal life in the city or
town center.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Life was brutal in that time
- cities in particular were filthy and odors and dirty air reflected the condition
of the humanity dwelling there.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The
cemeteries of my hometown were not of the grand scale of a Mount Auburn, but
there are similarities.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>They were placed
out of the town center, and each has narrow roads crisscrossing varied terrain
with large maple and oak trees providing shade and beauty throughout.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The sculpture is not as ornate, but early
family plots have impressive stonework.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">In the late 1800s and well into the 20<sup>th</sup> Century,
in part because of the Transcendentalist movement, cemeteries became
destinations for families to visit. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>My
father, a World War II veteran, said that when he was a boy his family would
regularly make day trips on weekends to cemeteries where family members were buried.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The entire family would board trolleys and
trains to make the trip.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>His mother would pack a lunch as it was a full
day event.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>His sisters and he would play
among the gravestones while the adults sat on benches or blankets and
talked.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Many other families would be
present, and they would often strike up conversations with acquaintances of the
past.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>It was an all-day affair. <o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">My father’s generation carried this tradition forward to
their Baby Boom families.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>It was not as
prominent, but it lingered, and the Baby Boom generation received this linkage
to cemeteries as a place of comfort, peace, connection with the past, and
community.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>This linkage expressed
itself most on Memorial Day in my lifetime when after the Memorial Day Parade,
families would wander the three cemeteries in my hometown. <o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Following the conclusion of the Memorial Day Parade
ceremonies at the Roman Catholic cemetery my family, like many others, would visit the graves
of family that had passed.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Parents,
children, aunts and uncles, and cousins all came first.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>We would say a prayer at each and talk of
them fondly.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Stories would come forth
of all variety.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>But there was also an
instructive nature.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Older family
members would provide explanation to younger ones of who the person was, how
they were connected to us, and answer questions the younger ones would invariably
have about the person.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Along the way, we would pass many graves to which one family
member or another would point and say, “There is so and so.”<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>It might be a neighbor, or a young friend or
classmate lost too early to war, accident, disease or misfortune.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>A story would follow to bring everyone up to
speed on who the person was, what happened, and the sorrow of their loss.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">It was an annual ritual.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Walking about.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Making the
connections to our family and community once again.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Passing down the knowledge of who these
people were beyond just the gravestones.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>My generation of our family has tried to continue this tradition over
the years to the present.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>It gets harder
and harder to accomplish.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Distance
separates in this modern world.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Time and
commitments, and even weather and disease, can be prohibitive.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>But some always manage to make it.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Occasionally, they might bump into a kindred
spirit from another family doing the same thing on Memorial Day.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">The younger generations sometimes find it boring listening
to the older generation tell the same old stories.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>That changes with age as they become more
curious about that which made them.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>In the hustle and bustle of our technology
driven life of isolation it is hard to convince young people of the value of
cutting out time to separate from the patterns of modern life and step back a
bit to tradition.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>But some have taken a shine to it and brought
even the next generation of children in the family along with them.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">It makes me happy that they do.<o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal">Maybe this year could be "Return to Randolph Memorial Day" or "Return to Your Hometown Memorial Day?" Visit your hometown cemetery and maybe strike up a conversation with an old friend you might bump into from the past. </p><p class="MsoNormal">Do you have a story of your Memorial Day tradition you would like to share here? Could be from the past, or maybe a more recently established tradition in your family. Post in comments or send to me by email and I can post it for you.</p><p class="MsoNormal"><br /></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="background-color: white; color: #656565; font-family: "Times New Roman", Times, FreeSerif, serif; font-size: 13.2px;">DISTRIBUTION: <i>Liberty Takes Effort shifted its distribution from social media to email delivery. Please share with your friends and family via email or social media if you think these posts would interest them.</i></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="background-color: white; color: #656565; font-family: "Times New Roman", Times, FreeSerif, serif; font-size: 13.2px;"><i>DISCLAIMER: The entire contents of this website are based solely upon the opinions and thoughts of the author unless otherwise noted. It is not considered advice for action by readers in any realm of human activity. Its purpose is to stimulate discussion on topics of interest to readers to further inform the public square. Use of any information in this site is at the sole choice and risk of the reader.</i></p>Liberty Takes Efforthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13398225334133635697noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8054521671768779399.post-14716604265014285762021-02-18T19:34:00.004-05:002021-05-31T12:39:10.928-04:00The “Summer of 2021” – looking good<p>I am more optimistic than government officials about the pace and extent to which COVID-19 related deaths and hospitalizations will decline and herd immunity be achieved in the U.S. Vaccine producers are ramping up production to meet demand; states are working out kinks in vaccine administration; the emphasis on vaccinating elders directly addresses the most vulnerable population; and up to one third of the population may already carry natural immunities from infection. These factors combined will likely result in dramatic change in spread, hospitalization, and deaths before summer.</p><span><a name='more'></a></span><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiESfDmOn91eFgK5-qFPg6Ke-7qvvjElLThLnMPcUWbKLsCxlQiqN-wNkJAukq0YROg4CWaFhQ8O1dB0ly3XlcM0IlxjUtCK-qWKoBz0i0PR9RBxl5avjocD72uNaE5rSecz4VcF2p7tU4/s730/5-Covid-Vaccine-Pine-Bluff-730x457.jpg" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><br /><img border="0" data-original-height="457" data-original-width="730" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiESfDmOn91eFgK5-qFPg6Ke-7qvvjElLThLnMPcUWbKLsCxlQiqN-wNkJAukq0YROg4CWaFhQ8O1dB0ly3XlcM0IlxjUtCK-qWKoBz0i0PR9RBxl5avjocD72uNaE5rSecz4VcF2p7tU4/s320/5-Covid-Vaccine-Pine-Bluff-730x457.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><p><b>POLITICS - the Biden Administration is attempting to keep expectations low.</b></p><p>President Joseph <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/speeches-remarks/2021/01/22/remarks-by-president-biden-on-the-american-rescue-plan-and-signing-of-executive-orders/" target="_blank">Biden said</a> on January 22nd, “there is nothing we can do to change the trajectory of the pandemic in the next several months.” He was criticized for that comment from all directions, but he was largely correct. The final-stage trajectory of the pandemic was set months ago when <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Warp_Speed" target="_blank">Operation Warp Speed</a> successfully produced two effective vaccines from <a href="https://www.pfizer.com/" target="_blank">Pfizer</a>-<a href="https://biontech.de/" target="_blank">BioNTech</a> and <a href="https://www.modernatx.com/" target="_blank">Moderna</a> - with more on the way. The President was acknowledging that he could only impact the outcome of the pandemic on the margins. </p><p>The Biden Administration, like administrations before, is attempting to manage expectations. Some legitimate caution is warranted. Producing, distributing, and administering the vaccines is a complex process and there are risks. Too quickly abandoning safe behaviors, allowing opportunity for new variants to take hold, and significant hesitance in the population to get the vaccine, are real risks that can threaten success against the virus. This week's <a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/news/covid-19-vaccine-distribution-winter-storms-cdc/" target="_blank">severe weather</a> slowed vaccine distribution. </p><p>Politics are also playing a role. Politicians often <a href="https://apnews.com/article/joe-biden-donald-trump-pandemics-coronavirus-pandemic-financial-markets-87c4ff1c863c8c37162255915cde7de9" target="_blank">manage expectations</a> down. The Biden Administration is no different. Setting low expectations to avoid blame in failing to meet more aggressive goals is common. The flip side to lowering expectations to avoid blame is the opportunity to claim credit when expectations are exceeded. </p><p>There are also policy implications that demand managing expectations downward. If public opinion becomes optimistic that the pandemic is waning and will soon end it could derail Biden's <a href="https://www.politifact.com/article/2021/jan/15/whats-joe-bidens-19-trillion-american-rescue-plan/" target="_blank">American Rescue Plan</a>. The Biden Administration says, "<a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-usa-congress/we-cant-wait-biden-administration-fights-for-1-9-trillion-covid-19-relief-plan-idUSKBN29T0LO" target="_blank">we can't wait</a>" to deliver an enormous infusion of 1.9 trillion dollars through a fully partisan <a href="https://www.tampabay.com/news/nation-world/2021/02/09/what-you-need-to-know-about-the-budget-reconciliation-process-politifact/" target="_blank">legislative maneuver</a> in the budget process. A crisis is needed to justify and advance massive transformative legislation along partisan lines. If there is no crisis the task is much more difficult. Expectation diminishing narratives will continue as the budget resolution is expedited through Congress. After it is passed the narrative will likely switch to a much more positive outlook. </p><p><b>GOALS - we have lost track of our goals in the pandemic</b></p><p>It is important to think about what we are trying to achieve. It seems that as the pandemic dragged on goals were distorted, changed, and made unclear. Are we now trying to vaccinate 100 percent of the population and reduce risk from the virus to zero? Both are unattainable goals. </p><p>The immediate goal is to reduce serious illness and death from the virus to a level more akin to the common cold. The follow-on near term goal is to manage COVID-19 as the <a href="https://science.sciencemag.org/content/371/6530/741" target="_blank">endemic disease</a> it will likely become. It will be essential to establish and maintain herd immunity, conduct virus <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/variant-surveillance.html" target="_blank">variant monitoring</a>, and support agile vaccine research and <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-vaccines-variants/pfizer-says-south-african-variant-could-significantly-reduce-protective-antibodies-idUSKBN2AH2VG" target="_blank">booster development</a> to address dangerous variants that may emerge. In the long term, the goal is to reduce vaccine spread and presence worldwide in order to reduce the potential for a more dangerous variant to develop through mutations. Achieving <a href="https://www.eiu.com/n/85-poor-countries-will-not-have-access-to-coronavirus-vaccines/" target="_blank">worldwide herd immunity</a> may not be achievable until 2023 - though early success in the U.S. could quicken that pace. </p><p><b>VACCINATION - production, distribution, and administration will meet the need</b></p><p>There were delays and missteps in the early administration of vaccines by states. But with time and experience there is continuing improvement. By mid-January some <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2021/01/19/health/covid-19-vaccine-demand-outpacing-supply/index.html" target="_blank">states were complaining</a> that there was insufficient distribution of vaccines to address demand and their growing capacity to administer vaccinations. More than <a href="https://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/537462-astrazeneca-approvals-abroad-fuel-debate-over-speeding-us-process" target="_blank">thirty-five states</a> have now administered over 75 percent of the vaccine doses they have received. The remaining states are not far behind. All are making progress.</p><p>Of the 72 million vaccine doses delivered thus far nearly <a href="https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations" target="_blank">56 million</a> or 78% have been administered. Next week, approximately <a href="https://data.cdc.gov/Vaccinations/COVID-19-Vaccine-Distribution-Allocations-by-Juris/saz5-9hgg" target="_blank"> 6.8 million Pfizer</a> and <a href="https://data.cdc.gov/Vaccinations/COVID-19-Vaccine-Distribution-Allocations-by-Juris/b7pe-5nws" target="_blank">6.7 million Moderna</a> vaccines are scheduled for delivery to states, U.S. territories, and some federal departments such as the Department of Defense and the Veterans Administration. The states and organizations administering vaccines are delivering over a seven day average <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/covid-19-vaccine-doses.html" target="_blank">1.66 million doses daily</a> Though this is impressive the current pace is not sufficient to meet the contractual obligations of these companies to the U.S. </p><p>Expect vaccine deliveries to increase weekly. There are indications that increased vaccine production capacity will soon result in <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2021/02/17/briefing/winter-storm-texas-blackout-afghanistan-latifa.html" target="_blank">three million doses per day</a>. Pfizer <a href="https://www.novartis.com/news/media-releases/novartis-signs-initial-agreement-provide-manufacturing-capacity-pfizer-biontech-covid-19-vaccine" target="_blank">struck agreements with other pharmaceutical companies</a> to use their production facilities. Its company representatives <a href="https://wwmt.com/news/local/pfizer-two-months-ahead-of-schedule-on-additional-100-million-doses-of-vaccine" target="_blank">testified before a Michigan state legislativebody</a> that they are ahead of schedule on the delivery.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><a href="https://investors.modernatx.com/news-releases/news-release-details/moderna-provides-us-covid-19-vaccine-supply-update" target="_blank">Moderna has stated it is on track to meet its obligations</a>. </p><p>Over the coming months production of approved vaccines will increase and additional vaccines are likely to be authorized for use in the U.S. In the long term many more vaccines may be approved. There are nearly <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/science/coronavirus-vaccine-tracker.html" target="_blank">90 vaccines currently in human trials</a> around the world. The U.S. government has struck contracts with several promising vaccine manufacturers.</p><p><a href="https://www.defense.gov/Explore/Spotlight/Coronavirus/Operation-Warp-Speed/" target="_blank">Operation Warp Speed</a> <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>placed contracts with <a href="https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/IN/IN11560" target="_blank">six companies</a> to purchase one billion vaccine doses (Pfizer-BioNTech, Moderna, Johnson&Johnson, AstraZeneca-Oxford, Novavax, and Sanofi-GlaxoSmithKline) with options for an additional two billion doses. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>These are options that can be exercised when additional vaccines prove promising or production increases materialize.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></p><p><a href="https://www.hhs.gov/about/news/2020/07/22/us-government-engages-pfizer-produce-millions-doses-covid-19-vaccine.html" target="_blank">Pfizer-BioNTech</a> and <a href="https://investors.modernatx.com/news-releases/news-release-details/moderna-announces-supply-agreement-us-government-initial-100" target="_blank">Moderna</a> initially contracted with the U.S. government to deliver a total of 200 million vaccine doses by March 31st and 170 million more by June 30th, 2021. Both vaccines require a two-dose regimen. This would result in approximately 100 million vaccinated adults by the end of March and a total of approximately 185 million by the end of June.</p><p class="MsoNormal">President <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/speeches-remarks/2021/02/11/remarks-by-president-biden-to-national-institutes-of-health-staff/" target="_blank">Biden said last week</a> at the National Institutes of Health that both companies have agreed to speed up delivery on these initial contracts from June 30th to May 31st. Contracts are not publicly available to confirm this timeline, but Biden said, "we’re now contractually obligated — to expedite delivery of 100 million doses, that were promised by the end of June, to deliver them by the end of May."</p><blockquote style="border: none; margin: 0px 0px 0px 40px; padding: 0px;"><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><i><b>The sum of these early contractual obligations will result in 370 million doses from both companies by the end of May vaccinating some 185 million adults or 73 percent of the 255 million adult population.</b></i></p></blockquote>
<p class="MsoNormal">It gets better.</p><p class="MsoNormal">The Biden Administration announced last month its <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/26/biden-administration-orders-additional-200-million-doses-of-vaccine.html" target="_blank">intention to exercise options</a> obtained last summer by Operation Warp Speed to purchase an additional 200 million doses of the vaccine. Agreements were reached last week for 100 million additional doses from <a href="https://www.pfizer.com/news/press-release/press-release-detail/pfizer-and-biontech-supply-united-states-100-million" target="_blank">Pfizer-BioNtech</a> and 100 million from <a href="https://investors.modernatx.com/news-releases/news-release-details/us-government-purchases-additional-100-million-doses-modernas" target="_blank">Moderna</a>. This raises the total obligation of these companies to 600 million doses. Contracts with these two companies would supply sufficient doses to vaccinate nearly the entire U.S. population and far exceeds the requirements for 2<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">55 million adults. </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> The companies are obligated to deliver the <a href="https://www.hhs.gov/about/news/2021/02/11/biden-administration-purchases-additional-doses-covid-19-vaccines-from-pfizer-and-moderna.html" target="_blank">additional doses</a> by the end of July. </span></p><p class="MsoNormal">Other companies will introduce vaccines in the coming
months.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><a href="https://www.jnj.com/johnson-johnson-announces-submission-of-application-to-the-u-s-fda-for-emergency-use-authorization-of-its-investigational-single-shot-janssen-covid-19-vaccine-candidate" target="_blank">Johnson & Johnson</a> submitted an emergency use application to the Federal Drug Administration (FDA) last week for their single dose vaccine. The FDA will <a href="https://www.fda.gov/news-events/press-announcements/coronavirus-covid-19-update-fda-announces-advisory-committee-meeting-discuss-janssen-biotech-incs" target="_blank">hold a meeting</a> to consider the application on February 26th. Upon approval J&J is expected to deliver about <a href="https://www.cnn.com/world/live-news/coronavirus-pandemic-vaccine-updates-02-16-21/h_165807caa8ab3e89328e165268e58d3f" target="_blank">20 million doses by April</a> and 80 million additional doses by the end of June.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><a href="https://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/537462-astrazeneca-approvals-abroad-fuel-debate-over-speeding-us-process" target="_blank">AstraZeneca</a> and <a href="https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2021/02/04/2170335/0/en/Novavax-Announces-Start-of-Rolling-Review-by-Multiple-Regulatory-Authorities-for-COVID-19-Vaccine-Authorization.html" target="_blank">Novavax</a> could also begin the FDA approval phase this
spring.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The U.S. has an option for 300
million doses of AstraZeneca and 110 million of Novavax.</p><blockquote style="border: none; margin: 0px 0px 0px 40px; padding: 0px;"><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><b><i>By the end of the summer there will likely be a large excess of vaccines available.</i></b> </p></blockquote><p class="MsoNormal"><b>IMPACT on goals to reduce severe illness and death</b></p><p class="MsoNormal">It is only through natural immunity from infection and/or vaccination that the COVID-19 pandemic will end. Victory comes through offense - not defense. The offensive phase of our battle began in December. There is building evidence that by the beginning of the summer the <a href="https://www.mckinsey.com/industries/healthcare-systems-and-services/our-insights/when-will-the-covid-19-pandemic-end#" target="_blank">vaccination rate, and natural immunity from infection</a>, will combine to reduce COVID-19 spread markedly. Prioritizing immunization distribution by age will enhance the impact by addressing the population most susceptible to severe illness and death.</p><p class="MsoNormal">The original contracts with Pfizer-BioNtech and Moderna to deliver 370 million doses, if
fulfilled as President Biden said by the end of May, will vaccinate 185 million people, or 56 percent of the 328 million U.S. population. But the goal is not to vaccinate the entire population. Children cannot yet recieve the vaccine. The goal is to vaccinate the adult population of 255 million. When one looks at it from that perspective over 70 percent of the U.S. adult population will be vaccinated by the end of May.</p>
<p class="MsoNormal">The prioritization of older adults enhances
the ability of vaccination to reduce death and severe illness in the most
vulnerable population.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Age is the major
discriminating factor in COVID deaths.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span><a href="https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid_weekly/index.htm#SexAndAge" target="_blank">Adults are far more vulnerable</a> - and vulnerability escalates with age. Those
over 65 make up only 12 percent of the population yet represent over 80 percent of
COVID related deaths.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Distributing vaccines to those most advanced in age is the most effective
way to quickly reduce deaths and hospitalizations.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">Age should remain the primary factor in the allocation of vaccine doses. After those aged 65 and older have received the opportunity to be vaccinated the age should be lowered to 55 and then to 45. Adults over the age of 55 </span>represent 93 percent of
COVID related deaths. Adults over the age of 45 represent 97.5 percent of COVID related deaths.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">There is insufficient data to discern precisely what
percentage of vaccinations are going to which priority groups nationally.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/vaccines/recommendations.html" target="_blank">CDC guidance</a><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>for vaccine distribution prioritizes
health-care workers and long term care facility residents followed by Phase 1b
frontline essential workers, people aged 75 years and older, people aged 65-74
years, and then people aged 16-64 with underlying medical conditions.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> S</span>tates are generally following these
guidelines but there is <a href="https://www.kff.org/other/state-indicator/state-covid-19-vaccine-priority-populations/?currentTimeframe=0&sortModel=%7B%22colId%22:%22Location%22,%22sort%22:%22asc%22%7D" target="_blank">tremendous variety in state execution</a>.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> Florida is a good example.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><a href="https://www.flgov.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/EO_20-315.pdf" target="_blank">Florida</a> made all persons 65 years of age and older a top priority. Over <a href="http://ww11.doh.state.fl.us/comm/_partners/covid19_report_archive/vaccine/vaccine_report_latest.pdf" target="_blank">75 percent of vaccinations</a> in
Florida thus far were to those 65 and older.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Approximately 1.75 million of an estimated population of 4.5 million over
65 (nearly 40 percent) have thus far received the vaccine.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> Florida is scheduled to receive 420,000 vaccine doses next week. At that rate of delivery Florida could have every adult over 65 vaccinated by mid-June. But the rate of delivery will not be static. It is likely to climb by as much as 50 percent in coming weeks. This would result in all 4.5 million over 65 having the opportunity to be vaccinated by early May. This strategy could rapidly decrease hospitalizations and deaths. This will be observable and a measurable performance indicator.</span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">Other states are not pursuing the same strategy as Florida. For example, Massachusetts has different priorities than Florida. It has only delivered 35 percent of its vaccine doses to adults over 65 compared with Florida's 75 percent. This could have significant consequences for Massachusetts and other states that are chosing to direct vaccine doses away from the age demographic that is by far the most likely to be hospitalized and die from COVID-19.</span></p><p class="MsoNormal">Vaccination is only one component of herd immunity.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Natural immunity from past infection also
plays a role.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>According to the Centers
for Disease Control (CDC) a <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/burden.html" target="_blank">third of the U.S. population may have been infected</a> by COVID-19 and carry antibodies.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The CDC has been gathering serological data from laboratories and other sources about <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/serology-surveillance/index.html" target="_blank">antibodies present in blood samples</a> throughout
the population.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Modeling those sample
results, the CDC estimates that only one in 4.6 infections are confirmed and reported.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The current <a href="https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#datatracker-home" target="_blank">27 million cases confirmed</a> and reported
may represent 100-125 million natural infections within the
population today.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Combining the 185 million to be vaccinated by the end of May with 100 million carrying antibodies
from natural infection, approximately 285 million people, or 87 percent of the U.S. population, likely will carry some level of immunity to COVID-19 by the beginning of
summer. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>This is approaching the highest
levels estimated required to achieve herd immunity.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></p><p class="MsoNormal">Of course, there will be some overlap of adults getting
vaccines who were also infected naturally. However, the CDC estimates that natural infections are occuring largely in younger people. Those over 65 represent only about 11 percent of the estimated natural infections. More than 70 percent of natural infections are estimated to occur in those under 50 years of age. </p><blockquote style="border: none; margin: 0px 0px 0px 40px; padding: 0px;"><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><b><i>The result is herd immunity distributed largely by vaccination in older populations and natural immunity from infection in younger populations by late May.</i></b></p></blockquote><p class="MsoNormal"><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><b>THREATS to this optimistic projection</b><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Viruses mutate frequently. Most <a href="https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/the-most-worrying-mutations-in-five-emerging-coronavirus-variants/" target="_blank">mutations</a> are minor and either cause the death of the virus or have no impact on its potential or behavior. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> But some mutations or combination of mutations can alter the virus behavior significantly enough to be called a <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-55404988" target="_blank">variant</a> of the original. </span>A few, such as the <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/transmission/variant.html" target="_blank">U.K., South Africa, and Brazil variants </a>, have raised concerns. The South Africa variant in particular may reduce protective antibodies against the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine, but it was <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-vaccines-variants/pfizer-says-south-african-variant-could-significantly-reduce-protective-antibodies-idUSKBN2AH2VG" target="_blank">still able to neutralize the virus</a>. All three vaccine variants are being tested against several vaccines. Testing is not concluded; however, the vaccines are expected to <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/radio/whitecoat/how-the-vaccines-we-have-and-the-ones-coming-next-stack-up-against-covid-19-variants-1.5905708#:~:text=The%20company%20said%20early%20findings,per%20cent%20effective%20against%20B1351." target="_blank">provide immune response</a>, though somewhat less effectively.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The best
defense against these and other mutations is to stop the virus from spreading by
vaccinating as many people as possible as quickly as possible. <o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">This raises a related issue of concern – those who are not
willing to take the vaccine.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> According to the <a href="https://www.census.gov/library/stories/2021/01/around-half-of-unvaccinated-americans-indicate-they-will-definitely-get-covid-19-vaccine.html" target="_blank">U.S. Census Bureau</a> a recent survey indicates 14 percent of adults probably will not and 10 percent definitely will not get the vaccine. </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">The <a href="https://www.kff.org/coronavirus-covid-19/report/kff-covid-19-vaccine-monitor-december-2020/" target="_blank">Kaiser Family Foundation</a> reported that over 25 percent of the population is vaccine reluctant. </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">There were </span>reports this week of lackluster vaccination participation among <a href="https://www.wgbh.org/news/local-news/2021/02/08/more-than-half-of-mass-corrections-workers-have-refused-covid-vaccine" target="_blank">correctional workers</a>, <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/rachelsandler/2021/02/09/walgreens-exec-says-60-of-nursing-home-workers-refused-covid-19-vaccine/?sh=4b9eae6c3ccb" target="_blank">nursing home workers</a>, <a href="https://www.wtrf.com/news/health/many-us-healthcare-workers-refusing-to-take-vaccine/" target="_blank">health care workers</a> , and <a href="https://www.wcnc.com/article/news/health/coronavirus/vaccine/some-first-responders-refuse-to-get-covid-19-vaccine/275-a586d6c9-c46f-492c-b1be-f8fbfc087548" target="_blank">first responders</a> in some areas.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></p><p class="MsoNormal">According to the Census survey younger people are less likely to get vaccinated. Seventy-one percent of those over 65 definitely plan to get the vaccine while only 41 percent of adults under 44 definitely plan to get the vaccine. There is also racial and ethnic disparity as indicated in the Census Bureau's table below. </p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEif5RtgK1Vr2nFBy1vyL3Dywxwb1xSDqupNCCQ-akaXsqm0kbvKGJWTjxBELiB6j6MrfGdfua6ACQ_5qQt83Lc-MKtDbQ21v4655AVWFpMEbSZLDx97E2N6bPyT7Wtzv268SFR2pcTN8YU/s800/around-half-of-unvaccinated-americans-indicate-they-will-definitely-get-covid-19-vaccine-figure-3.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="536" data-original-width="800" height="268" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEif5RtgK1Vr2nFBy1vyL3Dywxwb1xSDqupNCCQ-akaXsqm0kbvKGJWTjxBELiB6j6MrfGdfua6ACQ_5qQt83Lc-MKtDbQ21v4655AVWFpMEbSZLDx97E2N6bPyT7Wtzv268SFR2pcTN8YU/w400-h268/around-half-of-unvaccinated-americans-indicate-they-will-definitely-get-covid-19-vaccine-figure-3.jpg" width="400" /></a></div><p class="MsoNormal">It seems that there is a lot less refusal to take the vaccine and more <a href="https://khn.org/news/article/vaccine-hesitancy-vs-vaccine-refusal-nursing-home-staffers-say-theres-a-difference/" target="_blank">hesitance or reluctance</a>. The reasons people are hesitant or reluctant are many and varied. Some younger people may have already been naturally infected and feel they do not need the vaccine. Some are skeptical of the rapid process of vaccine development. Some fear unknown long term side effects. There are many variables at play. A concerted effort to get skeptics to take the vaccine will be needed.</p><p class="MsoNormal">The next three months will be critical to U.S. success.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>It is essential to continue to follow spread reduction practices such as social distancing and mask wearing in confined close continuous contact environments; improve vaccine distribution and administration logistics; ensure production of Pfizer-BioNTech and Moderna vaccines meet contract obligations; approve the Johnson & Johnson vaccine as quickly as possible; control international travel from threatening virus variant areas; conduct public awareness campaigns to promote vaccination in communities and professions that are not fully participating; and aid a campaign to vaccinate the rest of the world.</p><p class="MsoNormal"><b>SUMMER of 2021 could be a great one!</b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Indications are that by summer the spread of COVID-19, severe illness, and deaths will be dramatically diminished and herd immunity within reach.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>When this happens there will be tremendous relief and an outpouring of pent-up economic and social activity underpinned by increased savings rates during the pandemic. The seasonal change of weather will play a positive role in decreasing spread in the coming four months. It will also provide a burst of energy and excitement as emergence from winter always does. </p><p class="MsoNormal">Federal, state and local governments must anticipate a major shift in focus as the public health crisis wanes in the coming months. Those governments with the tightest lockdown culture will have the greatest difficulty extracting themselves from the micromanagement and control they have grown used to in the past year. Focus will have to rapidly shift to fully opening the economy in parallel with declining spread and deaths.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> At the federal level, d</span>efensive holding actions such as government remediation,
stimulus, and assistance must shift toward putting people back to work and resuming pre-pandemic
economic and social activity.</p><p class="MsoNormal">For individuals, it will take conscious effort to recognize that the pandemic is coming to an end and to break the bonds and habits of one year in isolation and fear. But it is going to end, and maybe sooner than we are told. As evidence builds of that happening - let freedom ring!</p><p class="MsoNormal"><br /></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="background-color: white; color: #656565; font-family: "Times New Roman", Times, FreeSerif, serif; font-size: 13.2px;">DISTRIBUTION: <i>Liberty Takes Effort shifted its distribution from social media to email delivery. Please share with your friends and family via email or social media if you think these posts would interest them.</i></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="background-color: white; color: #656565; font-family: "Times New Roman", Times, FreeSerif, serif; font-size: 13.2px;"><i>DISCLAIMER: The entire contents of this website are based solely upon the opinions and thoughts of the author unless otherwise noted. It is not considered advice for action by readers in any realm of human activity. Its purpose is to stimulate discussion on topics of interest to readers to further inform the public square. Use of any information in this site is at the sole choice and risk of the reader.</i></p>Liberty Takes Efforthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13398225334133635697noreply@blogger.com8tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8054521671768779399.post-66366555558769966112021-01-29T08:27:00.011-05:002021-02-18T19:40:47.236-05:00State Covid-19 pandemic performance update<p>This blog post provides relative rankings of states in four coronavirus disease (COVID-19) performance categories. This update is published now because there was significant spread throughout the country that began in October, but is now subsiding. It is also issued at this time because vaccines have now been distributed for more than a month and some measures of performance are now available to assess state vaccine implementation. </p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">The United States exceeded 25 million confirmed COVID-19 cases and over 430,000 related deaths this week. A dramatic increase in cases and deaths began in October. The event is subsiding as new cases and 7 day averages decrease across the country. Daily deaths that typically lag cases by about two weeks have also begun to decline. </p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiAQlxN_Fu0mfr0ffggOHMoFBHmUp2Lm74iB4JLNTdXfKXYGVDgBx17nmkiNuUOkGrwiEM0ES9RcQC3x1BLbYj9tQqadkXcO1OeUN44Jobt13TU236l4htxIo2WtOyXvr_rHNOOEKcSVMI/s2048/Vaccine+picture.jpg" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em; text-align: center;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1366" data-original-width="2048" height="266" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiAQlxN_Fu0mfr0ffggOHMoFBHmUp2Lm74iB4JLNTdXfKXYGVDgBx17nmkiNuUOkGrwiEM0ES9RcQC3x1BLbYj9tQqadkXcO1OeUN44Jobt13TU236l4htxIo2WtOyXvr_rHNOOEKcSVMI/w400-h266/Vaccine+picture.jpg" width="400" /></a></p><p class="MsoNormal">Thus far, 48,386,275 vaccine doses have been distributed to states and territories and some federal departments and agencies. 26,193,682 doses have been administered, of which 4,263,056 were second doses.</p><p class="MsoNormal">Second doses of the <a href="https://www.pfizer.com/news/hot-topics/covid_19_vaccine_u_s_distribution_fact_sheet" target="_blank">Pfizer-BioNTech COVID-19 vaccine</a> and the <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/logistics-set-for-moderna-covid-19-vaccines-rollout-11608289201" target="_blank">Moderna vaccine</a> are administered 28 and 21 days respectively after the first dose. Second doses are an increasing portion of doses administered from state vaccine allotments.</p><p class="MsoNormal">Like so much of the pandemic response, specific vaccination priorities within states fall under the authority of governors aided by federal funding and FDA recommendations.</p><span><a name='more'></a></span><p class="MsoNormal"><br /></p><p class="MsoNormal">The state rankings that follow measure overall state performance in COVID-19 specific public health outcomes and economic damage caused by a state's restrictions on ecomic and social activity. The analysis is heavily skewed toward public health outcome as a priority giving it over 70 percent of ranking weight and economic impact 30 percent.</p><p class="MsoNormal"><o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal">The result of this analysis provided the following state rankings from worst ( Rank 51) to best ( Rank 1). The color coding indicates better (green) to worse (red) groupings of about twenty percent of states in each group.</p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgRMApYXV4WoCVOEwQXlUDjn-j6FI5F3nfkjoqkKQGIH-HLfWVFrICIn__pIuHEtf3gKTHt_ZKA4-j57VmYaaudAHUWKIgjAO_5V8Ul3UuSNFwCBae39OAoSh_IMb-cSBAhnDHdRYfymOg/" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="438" data-original-width="526" height="533" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgRMApYXV4WoCVOEwQXlUDjn-j6FI5F3nfkjoqkKQGIH-HLfWVFrICIn__pIuHEtf3gKTHt_ZKA4-j57VmYaaudAHUWKIgjAO_5V8Ul3UuSNFwCBae39OAoSh_IMb-cSBAhnDHdRYfymOg/w640-h533/image.png" width="640" /></a></div><br /><br /></div></div></div><p class="MsoNormal">To measure overall state performance four factors were considered: 1) percent of state population that died with COVID-19; 2) percent of those testing postive that died; 3) percent of population that has recevied at least one dose of the vaccine, and 4) economic performance as measured by the percent change in jobs between December, 2020 and December, 2021. </p><p class="MsoNormal"><o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal">Three components of public health are measured to make up 70 percent or 125 of 175 possible points of the state rank. Public health has three components: Deaths were weighted greatest at 90 points; percentage of those testing positive that died (an indicator of overall state public health performance) was weighted 10 points; and percent of the population that has received at least one dose of the vaccine was weigthed at 25 points. Economic performance based on the percent change in jobs over the past year was weighted at 50 points.</p><p class="MsoNormal">The overall state rankings above are derived from the four categories in the next table listed in state alphabetical order:</p><p class="MsoNormal"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEixOjQRU8SdZOit7tAkYDaaL47uhpyqBy_u_KL8pl-JEDZLOI2UOi4RUNWrcQMd05AXh0KDruMj0cqa44ksa1MWOt9Ho7fIsEYaM1faZlhcXDrK-O_5jPRahTnepSYoar2XmLbSmmqL1sY/" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="1101" data-original-width="781" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEixOjQRU8SdZOit7tAkYDaaL47uhpyqBy_u_KL8pl-JEDZLOI2UOi4RUNWrcQMd05AXh0KDruMj0cqa44ksa1MWOt9Ho7fIsEYaM1faZlhcXDrK-O_5jPRahTnepSYoar2XmLbSmmqL1sY/w453-h640/image.png" width="453" /></a></div><p></p><p class="MsoNormal">As an example of how the ranking is calculated take bottom ranked Massachusetts at #51:</p><p class="MsoNormal">Massachusetts ranked 49th in the percentage of its population that died with COVID. That category is weighted 90 points. 50 x 90 = 4500 points for category one. </p><p class="MsoNormal">Massachusetts ranked 48th based on the percentage of those that tested positive and died with COVID. That category is weighted 10 points. 48 x 10 = 480. </p><p class="MsoNormal">Massachusetts ranked 22nd in the percentage of its population that has received at least one dose of the vaccine. That category is weighted 25 points. 22 x 25 = 550.</p><p class="MsoNormal">Masachusetts ranked 48th for the percentage change in jobs in the state from December, 2019 and December, 2020 (latest data available from the Bureau of Labor Statistics). That category is weighted 50. 48 x 50 = 2400. </p><p class="MsoNormal">Thus, Massachusetts had a total score of 4500 + 480 + 550 + 2400 = 7930. This is the highest score of any state. Therefore, Massachusetts is ranked at the bottom of performance at Rank #51.</p><p class="MsoNormal"><br /></p><p class="MsoNormal">DISTRIBUTION: <i>Liberty Takes Effort is shifting its distribution from social media to email delivery. If you already receive an announcement of new posts and a link to the blog. In the future you will receive an automated email with the new post within the body. </i></p><p class="MsoNormal"><i>DISCLAIMER: The entire contents of this website are based solely upon the opinions and thoughts of the author unless otherwise noted. It is not considered advice for action by readers in any realm of human activity. Its purpose is to stimulate discussion on topics of interest to readers to further inform the public square. Use of any information in this site is at the sole choice and risk of the reader.</i></p><p class="MsoNormal"><i><br /></i></p><div><i><br /></i></div><p class="MsoNormal"><o:p></o:p></p>Liberty Takes Efforthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13398225334133635697noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8054521671768779399.post-32515183227446542982020-12-23T07:24:00.005-05:002021-01-29T08:36:50.281-05:00Where does your state rank in dealing with the COVID-19 pandemic?<p></p><p class="MsoNormal">This blog post ranks states in three coronavirus disease (COVID-19) response performance areas relative to other states. It updates <a href="https://www.libertytakeseffort.com/2020/10/covid-19-pandemic-national-and-state.html" target="_blank">previous blog posts on this topic</a> . This update is published now because there was significant spread throughout the country in the past few months that changed relative rankings for many states. It is also done at this time because a new element has been added that will likely (and hopefully) change the disease trajectory dramatically - vaccine availability. In a few months the relative state rankings will be examined again, but with the additional measure of vaccine implementation within states. </p><p class="MsoNormal">The United States exceeded 17.5 million confirmed COVID-19 cases and over 300,000 related deaths this past week. On December 16th, the single day record for deaths was set with the passing of 3,600 people and nearly 250,000 new cases. These markers were crossed during a period of increased spread generally nationwide that began in the Summer. As is the nature of the virus, the spread continues to shift over time from region to region. A Summer uptick in the South shifted to the MidWest and Mountain West in early Fall. That outbreak fortunately is now subsiding. Prevalence has now shifted to California, Tennessee, the Rust Belt, and into the NorthEast as indicated below graphic map in the New York Times <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/coronavirus-us-cases.html" target="_blank">Coronavirus in the U.S.: Latest Map and Case Count</a> on December 18, 2020.</p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi0BWKTAnDih8HH-fWwLrwHBjjm8mjDMEI2EiFoFWZFTgoJOge4Rqme6nkgSF3nuCtVpVbzWb7ErifLRgV5WAnwjc9twJjDyd_-pqgFLXB65YAi7AIOk2ahymu9Y-9rxu29_gzeOKgKnFY/s950/NYT+Dec+18+HotSpots+cases+per+100000+past+week.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="569" data-original-width="950" height="240" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi0BWKTAnDih8HH-fWwLrwHBjjm8mjDMEI2EiFoFWZFTgoJOge4Rqme6nkgSF3nuCtVpVbzWb7ErifLRgV5WAnwjc9twJjDyd_-pqgFLXB65YAi7AIOk2ahymu9Y-9rxu29_gzeOKgKnFY/w400-h240/NYT+Dec+18+HotSpots+cases+per+100000+past+week.jpg" width="400" /></a></div><br /><p class="MsoNormal"><span></span></p><a name='more'></a>Also in the past week, the U.S. approved and began distributing the <a href="https://www.pfizer.com/news/hot-topics/covid_19_vaccine_u_s_distribution_fact_sheet" target="_blank">Pfizer-BioNTech COVID-19 vaccine</a> and the <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/logistics-set-for-moderna-covid-19-vaccines-rollout-11608289201" target="_blank">Moderna vaccine</a> . This milestone reflects the unprecedented success of <a href="https://www.hhs.gov/coronavirus/explaining-operation-warp-speed/index.html" target="_blank">Operation Warp Speed</a> to deliver in record time an effective vaccine in response to a new viral pandemic. The success of this program will have positive impact far into the future as the science and processes learned can apply to other, as yet unknown, viral threats. <p></p><p class="MsoNormal">Twenty-million vaccine doses are expected to be delivered in December and another 20 million in January. The Centers for Disease Control (CDC) has provided distribution guidance to states and each has a <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/covid-19/covid19-vaccination-guidance.html" target="_blank">playbook for distribution</a>. Like so much of the pandemic response, specific vaccination priorities within states fall under the authority of governors aided by federal funding. The effectiveness of those plans and their implementation may well further distinguish state performance in the coming months. </p><p class="MsoNormal">The state rankings that follow measure overall state performance in COVID-19 specific public health outcomes and economic damage caused by a state's restrictions on ecomic activity. The analysis is
heavily skewed toward public health outcome as a priority giving it over 70% of ranking
weight.</p><p class="MsoNormal"><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">The result of this analysis provided the following ranking
from worst ( Rank 51) to best ( Rank 1). The color coding indicates better
(green) to worse (red) groupings of about 20% of states in each group.</p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiH5XppZuQWJZXcJlPyaju47NrJUR1iMD8PmepA5mP0t5YdOVlbtd3QvMdm5OXaXUm1Qwpaxr_j1GWZFHz8yFaJcucFE-xmM_cisV0-LO1iqJ9ox_CGhNyBMb5i-o01X_nkb5aMTewu-Jo/s595/Dec+18+2020+Overall+State+Rank.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="400" data-original-width="595" height="269" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiH5XppZuQWJZXcJlPyaju47NrJUR1iMD8PmepA5mP0t5YdOVlbtd3QvMdm5OXaXUm1Qwpaxr_j1GWZFHz8yFaJcucFE-xmM_cisV0-LO1iqJ9ox_CGhNyBMb5i-o01X_nkb5aMTewu-Jo/w400-h269/Dec+18+2020+Overall+State+Rank.jpg" width="400" /></a></div><br /><p class="MsoNormal">Many of the worst performing states (i.e. MA, NJ, CT, NY, RI, IL, D.C., and LA) have been in the bottom twenty-percent throughout the pandemic. Many states had significant shift in relative performance of more than 5 positions in ranking since September. These changes largely represent the shifting spread of virus outbreaks to different regions over time. Those changes are represented in the following table:</p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjhMWIWaJ-uRXAyxGPjJbUdRWfmZbL2oLbOirygJFO6gaPYQN93YwFtxiVTmJj47jSdWR2TnQR1nFYz8s7yayruoLbUa9fyQdZMvHhyphenhyphenyFrKI5AI_To5vFFg_8igUKvdlqjybqEgOk_k-xA/s547/State+Rank+Change+Sep+20+to+Dec+20.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="547" data-original-width="421" height="400" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjhMWIWaJ-uRXAyxGPjJbUdRWfmZbL2oLbOirygJFO6gaPYQN93YwFtxiVTmJj47jSdWR2TnQR1nFYz8s7yayruoLbUa9fyQdZMvHhyphenhyphenyFrKI5AI_To5vFFg_8igUKvdlqjybqEgOk_k-xA/w308-h400/State+Rank+Change+Sep+20+to+Dec+20.jpg" width="308" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><p class="MsoNormal">In the coming months significant solidification of some of the worst ranked states can be expected based on current increased spread of the virus in many of those states and the actions state governments are taking. Some states that have recently experienced a major outbreak that has subsided can expect to improve their position. Some states that improved their position in this report (e.g. CA) can expect to fall to a worse ranking based on current increased spread in their states. </p><p class="MsoNormal">To measure overall state performance three factors were considered: 1) percent of state population that died with COVID-19; 2) percent of those testing postive that died and 3) economic performance as measured by the number of jobs lost in a state between February, 2020 and November, 2020. </p><p class="MsoNormal"><o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal">Deaths were weighted greatest at 100 points. Percentage of those testing positive that died (an indicator of overall state public health performance) was weighted 25 points. Economic performance based on the percentage of a state’s population that is not working as a result of the pandemic (both unemployed and those that left the work force) was weighted at 50 points.</p><p class="MsoNormal">The overall state rankings above are derived from the three categories in
the next table listed in state alphabetical order:</p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhUpQIbhisoIYQ-Pvw1iTdi2M0bNKkuv7tEfflK0hKwp7Io1zibByzpLufE50eTaWlthWacqMlc3ZhQogN70JJEcZ8B251Zbc3odwnMlT8ARlXuWqX9vKKbLfowhySz2iRT2G3IkXdaqrQ/s926/State+Rank+Deaths+Pos+Deaths+Job+Loss+Dec+2020.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="926" data-original-width="591" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhUpQIbhisoIYQ-Pvw1iTdi2M0bNKkuv7tEfflK0hKwp7Io1zibByzpLufE50eTaWlthWacqMlc3ZhQogN70JJEcZ8B251Zbc3odwnMlT8ARlXuWqX9vKKbLfowhySz2iRT2G3IkXdaqrQ/w408-h640/State+Rank+Deaths+Pos+Deaths+Job+Loss+Dec+2020.jpg" width="408" /></a></div><p class="MsoNormal">As an example of how the ranking is calculated take bottom ranked (Ranked 51) Massachusetts:</p><p class="MsoNormal">Massachusetts ranked 50th in the percentage of its population that died with COVID. That category is weighted 100. 50 x 100 = 5000 points for category one. </p><p class="MsoNormal">Massachusetts ranked 50th for the percentage of deaths for those testing positive for COVID. That category is weighted 25. 50 x 25 = 1250. </p><p class="MsoNormal">Masachusetts ranked 51st in its percentage of population out of work by either leaving the workforce or looking for work but unemployed in November (latest data available from the Bureau of Labor Statistics). That category is weighted 50. 51 x 50 = 2550. </p><p class="MsoNormal">Thus, Massachusetts had a total score of 5000 + 1250 + 2550 = 8800. This is the highest score of any state. Therefore, Massachusetts is ranked at the bottom of performance at Rank #51.</p><p class="MsoNormal"><br /></p><p class="MsoNormal"><br /></p><p class="MsoNormal"><i>DISCLAIMER: The entire contents of this website are based solely upon the opinions and thoughts of the author unless otherwise noted. It is not considered advice for action by readers in any realm of human activity. Its purpose is to stimulate discussion on topics of interest to readers to further inform the public square. Use of any information in this site is at the sole choice and risk of the reader.</i></p><p class="MsoNormal"><o:p></o:p></p><br /><p></p>Liberty Takes Efforthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13398225334133635697noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8054521671768779399.post-74859830534527359682020-10-24T14:37:00.001-04:002020-12-23T07:57:35.454-05:00I did not vote for Donald Trump in 2016, but I will in 2020<p>Now that the 2020 Presidential and Vice-Presidential Debates
have concluded, and the election is within ten days, it is time to make a
considered decision about voting. I have
decided to vote for the reelection of President Donald J. Trump. I did not vote for him in 2016, but believe
it is the correct choice in 2020. </p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgfbVHtbmR17ulCgmjfwJYOgRhBH2r_Mxu6oIT8B8FphyphenhyphenLeq2P-flrlchITLfWkXnU3Zoet0tbQlDSACYVrut_n-z0gFKcd6CTmXsBGsomar9d9FpjajrK_F34V1sQXURHSYiO1eytSbIY/s1228/Trump+Biden+Head.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="648" data-original-width="1228" height="211" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgfbVHtbmR17ulCgmjfwJYOgRhBH2r_Mxu6oIT8B8FphyphenhyphenLeq2P-flrlchITLfWkXnU3Zoet0tbQlDSACYVrut_n-z0gFKcd6CTmXsBGsomar9d9FpjajrK_F34V1sQXURHSYiO1eytSbIY/w400-h211/Trump+Biden+Head.jpg" width="400" /></a></div><br /><p>Several of my blog readers asked me how I will vote in
the 2020 election. They run the gamut
from those who hate Trump and will vote against him no matter what; those who
love Trump and will vote for him no matter what; and those who dislike Trump’s personal
flaws and methods, but agree with many of his policy actions and find the
Democratic Party policy alternatives unacceptable. I fall into the latter group. </p><p class="MsoNormal"><o:p></o:p></p>
<span><a name='more'></a></span><p class="MsoNormal">Like so many others, I find Donald Trump’s character and
personality flaws objectionable. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>These
things are part of my decision-making as they are in every election.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>All presidents are flawed in one way or
another – they are human. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Who they are
must be a part of our decision-making.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>But
I believe philosophy, priorities, policy, and demonstrated success in implementing
policy are more important than personal traits.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>I agree with most of the policy priorities
of the Trump Administration and believe them in the long-term best interest of
the U.S.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>(I will put a list of 10 in the comments section for those interested).</p><p class="MsoNormal"><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">The alternative I am offered by the Democratic Party in this
election influenced my decision more than my agreement with most Trump
Administration policy. <o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">I think that the Democratic Party has surrendered itself to
an ascendant far left that is intent on revolutionary change. If the
Democratic Party wins the Presidential election and both houses of Congress,
they will assume power and implement an agenda that will transform the country
to an unrecognizable state. History will be rewritten, institutions
will be destroyed, tradition will be thrown to the wind, and every aspect of
social, political and economic life will be cast in a mold of group identity
from which winners and losers are determined by those in power.
Dissent will not be tolerated. Those who disagree will be hounded,
destroyed, and cancelled. The rule of law will be put aside in favor of
what is “fair” as determined by those in power. <o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Vice President Joe Biden will turn 78 in a few weeks.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>He shows signs of cognitive decline and lack
of physical stamina.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>I say that not to
judge him, but to simply recognize reality.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>His campaign is trying to portray him is a tempering force to
hold the far left of his party at bay, but he simply does not have the capacity
nor the support to do that within the Party. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>To win the election, he had to concede to the
far left by agreeing to the <a href="https://joebiden.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/UNITY-TASK-FORCE-RECOMMENDATIONS.pdf" target="_blank">Biden-Sanders Unity Task ForceRecommendations</a>. Make no doubt, the agenda in that document will be
implemented if the Democratic Party gains control of the Executive and both
houses of Congress. I read it and recommend others do. It is an
agenda of radical transformative change.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">As the candidate of the Democratic Party, Biden is but a
figurehead thought acceptable to enough of the electorate to win. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>In these convoluted times, messaging, and a
compliant press, can present this near fifty-year veteran of the political
establishment as a “change agent” and an antidote to the strife of division and
the stress of COVID-19. He is no antidote. He is a Trojan Horse for
the far left to gain power because they could not be elected in a frontal
presentation of their views with Bernie Sanders as their candidate. There will be no redirection of the COVID-19 path and no end to the political strife if Biden is elected. No matter who wins
the election both will remain, and probably get worse before they get better.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">In 2016, I worked to bring the Bush/Clinton Dynasties to an
end. They represented an out of touch political elite of both
parties. I wanted to overturn the apple cart of the entrenched
political elites who for decades had ignored the problems and priorities of the
American people, engaged us in endless wars, accommodated a China intent on
replacing us as world leader, supported globalist trade that destroyed
manufacturing in the U.S., and engaged in divisive politics to the detriment of
national cohesion. <o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">In 2016, I saw one possible candidate to turn much of this
around in Democratic Party Presidential Candidate Jim Webb, but he was nearly
laughed off the stage as out of touch with the modern Democratic Party
agenda. The election of Donald Trump placed us on a path
of direct disruption of political norms. In reaction, the
Democratic Party moved further left. No longer the “loyal opposition,”
they became the “Resistance.” <o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">In the 2020 primary elections I saw another candidate that
might have been able to focus on practical problem solving for the American
people over politics, and diminish the political strife. Former Democratic Representative and business entrepreneur John Delaney was an early Democratic Presidential Nominee candidate who represented pragmatism. But he too, like Jim Webb in 2016, was cast aside as out of touch with the base that
controls the Democratic Party. <o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">The two major political parties are once again pursuing the
50/50 division option in this election. They are relying primarily on
getting their base of supporters out in greater numbers than their
opponent. This strategy cannot continue forever where victories are
determined by a few thousand votes for the winner. We will either
find a common pathway together or we will divide. <o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Regardless of who wins the election there is going to be a
period of increased strife, even violence. My hope is that during the
next four years we will find a way to reject the politics of division and shed
ourselves of those who encourage it. Our division is largely an
issue of psychology encouraged by politicians and media corporations for profit
and power, enabled by technology.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>On
policy, we are much more aligned than one would think.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>I am optimistic that we can work out accommodations
by 2024. <o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">I think that a Trump reelection can better lay the groundwork
for the beginning of a reconciliation in 2024. I am fearful that given the
levers of power in the Executive and Legislature the far left will attempt to
alter the system of national political power to such a degree that a pathway to
compromise and coalescence will be destroyed. Talk of packing
courts, ending filibusters, adding Washington D.C. and Puerto Rico as states,
and eliminating the Electoral College are evidence of that intent. A
Democratic election win by a few percentage points is no mandate to flip our
political process on its head, but it will provide the opportunity to do just
that. <o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">The stated intentions of the far left and the probability
they will act on those intentions if given power is a major part of my vote
choice.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>I do not see Donald Trump as
that type of threat based on his first term actions. In this time, I
think it better to abide President Trump for four more years rather than allow
the far left to attempt a revolution inconsistent with the foundations of who I
believe we are as a nation.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">The good news is that we have been through periods like this
in the past and worked our way through them. The debates early in
our history between Federalists and Anti-Federalists were similar to those of
today - what is the role of government in our lives? In 2024, the
cast of characters will be completely changed by term limit, frailty or death –
Donald Trump, Joe Biden, Nancy Pelosi, Mitch McConnell, Chuck Schumer, Dianne
Feinstein, Chuck Grassley, Patrick Leahy will all be gone from the scene and a
new generation will truly take control. 2024 will be a momentous election
filled with new faces. I could imagine a Nikki Haley versus Andrew Yang
contest and be quite interested in the debate between the two. The Silent
Generation will be gone. The Baby Boom Generation will have far less
impact.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">On January 20th, 2025 maybe a new President of the United
States will say as John F. Kennedy said in his inaugural address in 1961, “We
observe today not a victory of party but a celebration of freedom—symbolizing
an end as well as a beginning—signifying renewal as well as change… Let the
word go forth from this time and place, to friend and foe alike, that the torch
has been passed to a new generation of Americans.”<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">I am ever the optimist in believing our Republic is
something exceptional, and we can work through this together. I see no
resolution in 2020 but am optimistic about 2024.<o:p></o:p></p>Liberty Takes Efforthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13398225334133635697noreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8054521671768779399.post-54197499101661414012020-10-07T07:49:00.002-04:002020-10-24T14:55:01.026-04:00COVID-19 Pandemic: National and State Performance<div class="separator"><p style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;">The United States' COVID-19 associated death toll passed 200,000 last week - placing the U.S. at 11th from the bottom when compared with other countries. This blog post analyzes national and state level performance to date, relative to other countries and among states, to try and shed light on why the U.S. holds that unenviable position. The primary metrics for comparison are COVID-19 related deaths, public health system performance by state, and job losses by state.<br /><br /><br /></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi2e-cY2y8zTM6T0tlWZGDja1oQ-Q9vALtq8v8h1sSpU850kyZGsjBc2FLlyJdZoUax-PPSw4biOPI89haLjpCweibt1_D359YHgV-CW6bufrHLmn8kHu39slTYaDwo0WwvCwIfAHpwNYA/s1186/Pres+and+Govs+FB.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="628" data-original-width="1186" height="212" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi2e-cY2y8zTM6T0tlWZGDja1oQ-Q9vALtq8v8h1sSpU850kyZGsjBc2FLlyJdZoUax-PPSw4biOPI89haLjpCweibt1_D359YHgV-CW6bufrHLmn8kHu39slTYaDwo0WwvCwIfAHpwNYA/w400-h212/Pres+and+Govs+FB.jpg" width="400" /></a></div><p></p><br /><p style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;">Before describing the analysis, it is important to first say that the loss of so many Americans to COVID-19 is a national tragedy and a personal horror for many families and communities. The nation grieves their loss. There is no better way to honor those who have died than to rigorously and critically research and analyze the national and state response to this pandemic. Better understanding the effects of the virus, and governmental responses, can improve outcomes both in the current pandemic, and when (not if) the next pandemic occurs.<br /><br />The pandemic response is also harming millions through increased rates of depression and addiction relapse, business failures, job losses, and educational disruption. There is still tremendous debate about how to balance the needs of protecting an older generation through public health policy with resuming economic and social activity. There is a generational divide that must be acknowledged and the concerns of both balanced. Younger people are generally at much lower risk to the virus and see their economic futures and the educations of their children in jeapordy from public health policy restrictions on their lives. There is wide variation between states in addressing this balance. <br /><br />One method of assessing peformance in mitigating the impact of the pandemic is to compare the U.S. to other countries in terms of outcomes. Uncovering policies that performed better or worse in these countries may reveal better approaches for the next pandemic. As a federal republic of sovereign states, the U.S. also has its own laboratory of 51 different approaches that it can compare and contrast to uncover best practices. Comparison of our nation’s performance against other countries and the comparing of states relative to one another is the primary focus of this assessment.<br /><br /><b>Federal, State and Local Roles</b><br /><br />Early in the pandemic President Donald Trump made statements about his authority to make decisions that could overule the actions of governors. Governors responded vociferously to reject that point of view. The President eventually backed down. Rightfully so. The Constitution stepped in.<br /><br />The president has very little authority to overrule the decisions of governors with regard to public health orders they may put in place. Fortunately, all parties walked back from the confrontation and began to actually work together cooperatively in April. This was true even when the most serious political divisions were present. New York Governor Andrew Cuomo and California Governor Gavin Newsom proclaimed gratitude for the the Trump Administration's support of their efforts.</p><span><br /></span><span><br /></span><span></span><span><a name='more'></a></span></div><p></p><p>Of course, election politics are now at the forefront and all parties are attempting to shed and cast blame despite what eventually and ultimately became generally effective cooperative effort by our national and state leaders. There remain disputes, but they are largely about the balancing of public health concerns with the pace of resuming more normal economic and social activities.<br /><br />Putting aside the skew politics creates, it appears Americans are generally approving of how the pandemic was handled closest to them and in their lives. One poll indicates 88% satisfaction with how local hospitals and services responded to the pandemic. Polling also indicates that at the state and federal level performance approval falls largley along the partisan divide so prevalent today.</p><p>There is a growing tendancy in the U.S. to view the national government as all powerful and the president as more like a king. The pandemic response is very similar to law enforcement or hurricane response. Local governments implement direct action, state governments coordinate and support those actions, and the federal government supports the states. The performance within a state is more the result of actions taken by governors and mayors than by any federal authority.<br /><br /><b>What is the goal?</b></p><p>On March 31, 2020 Dr. Deborah Birx explained during a
Coronavirus Task Force briefing that modeling indicated there would be “between
1.5 million and 2.2 million people in the United States succumbing to this
virus without mitigation.” The low end projections with mitigation were 100,000-240,000. There were many issues of
concern with modeling early on, but they were the only resource officials had
with which to make policy decisions.</p><p class="MsoNormal"><o:p></o:p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">
<p class="MsoNormal">If U.S. daily death rates continue at the current or lesser
rate and a vaccine is implemented later in the year, the high estimate of
240,000 may prove fairly accurate. There
was hope early on that the lower end of the mitigated range could be achieved but hope and reality
often collide and did in this case. As the U.S. passes a new tragic threshold, one must keep in mind that it is still within the range of goals
established in the Spring.</p>
<p class="MsoNormal">The U.S. has the highest raw number of reported deaths from
COVID-19 but raw number comparisons with other countries are irrelevant. A common framework must be used to account for different population sizes. Deaths per 100,000 population are commonly
used to make relevant comparisons and are used here.</p>
<p class="MsoNormal">The U.S. is 11<sup>th</sup> worst of the world's 195 countries for number of COVID-19 reported deaths per 100,000 population. However, a comparison with all countries is not very helpful. For example, the Republic
of San Marino, a microstate of 33 thousand people, did far worse than the
U.S. but is that really relevant?</p><p class="MsoNormal">In addition, there are many variables that impact reporting and make it difficult to make apples-to- apples comparisons that can be helpful. For example, some may not have the ability to accurately detect cases. Testing capacity to identify cases is different in each country. The U.S. has tested 100 million people. <br /><br />It is more insightful to compare the U.S. with countries more similarly situated in terms of their economic and public health capacity to detect and mitigate the virus - though even in these countries there can be variables that negatively impact comparisons. For example, some use different definitions that can be more stringent in defining a death as caused by COVID-19. The U.S. includes anyone that dies WITH the disease in its reporting. </p><p class="MsoNormal">The table below reflects the ranking of such countries based on reported deaths per 100,000 population. In this comparison the U.S. is three from the bottom.</p><p class="MsoNormal"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjKT1gbzLUe0C_tAhgCaPa_TIbVcb5Ztj6hiGph8sYna3cuKw5NCo5KPOvY3jgR_6mIXolnd1N_eggnh0i0OVVZQj4idttEpE7bhbHGwjiaWhvUc7PlnzfNZinPhtX5A6gcVFcH63DhWr4/" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="606" data-original-width="371" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjKT1gbzLUe0C_tAhgCaPa_TIbVcb5Ztj6hiGph8sYna3cuKw5NCo5KPOvY3jgR_6mIXolnd1N_eggnh0i0OVVZQj4idttEpE7bhbHGwjiaWhvUc7PlnzfNZinPhtX5A6gcVFcH63DhWr4/w392-h640/image.png" width="392" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="text-align: left;"><br /></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">The U.S. is in the top tier of advanced countries for deaths per 100,000 along with Spain, United Kingdom, Italy, Sweden, France, Ireland, and the Netherlands. Why this group performed worse than other countries in deaths per 100,000 population will not be known for many years, but there are some obvious reasons why some might do better than others. <br /><br />New Zealand is an island that shut itself off from the world. Central control totalitarian governments like the People’s Republic of China can order public action and force compliance in a way that Western democracies cannot (China is using the pandemic to tout its top down system as better than Western democracies). Asian culture in general is much more compliant to government authority and group submission than a country like the U.S. that places liberty and the rights of the individual at the forefront of its culture. Some Asian countries, such as South Korea and Taiwan, learned lessons of previous SARS and H1N1 outbreaks and implemented effective plans of action that immediately went into effect when the virus was discovered.</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span><br /></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">There are some specific areas of policy and implementation that shed light as well. One of the reasons that Taiwan or South Korea, in particular, have faired so well is the testing and contact tracing system that they implemented to great effect. The contract tracing system touted as the method of monitoring and mitigation to follow the reopening of the U.S. economy was an utter failure. It was not only a technical and policy failure - U.S. culture played a role. Americans are protective of their privacy and often will not share their contact information with authorities. Post COVID-19 assessment is going to have to confront this issue and decide if there are ways to make contact tracing effective or look for alternative methods of detecting and mitigating community spread.</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div><span>Further insight can be gained by looking at the death rate per 100,000 in each U.S. state in comparison to other countries. </span><span>The U.S. rate is high, but that rate is distributed very broadly amongst the states.</span><span> </span></div></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><p></p><p class="MsoNormal"><o:p></o:p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"></div><p class="MsoNormal"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjqK1s2RFRhr-VfQ8_fDJdIA8p6ujto9fpwiV-mruMVWBSk84Q1H-T4CRaM1Rxa2ohmof970ui4nVPXFi67JvDnW6EWt4A8zAD1KNGpOZk62JiI9Xhl9qAS8LSNqSeHNTGw8anXZM9YLak/" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="348" data-original-width="624" height="356" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjqK1s2RFRhr-VfQ8_fDJdIA8p6ujto9fpwiV-mruMVWBSk84Q1H-T4CRaM1Rxa2ohmof970ui4nVPXFi67JvDnW6EWt4A8zAD1KNGpOZk62JiI9Xhl9qAS8LSNqSeHNTGw8anXZM9YLak/w640-h356/image.png" width="640" /></a></div><br /><p></p><p class="MsoNormal"><b>Comparing States</b></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><p class="MsoNormal">Moving from country comparisons to relative state performance one finds a very wide swath of performance. Once again, it will take a lot more study to find out why there is such contrasting performance, but there is adequate data to make judgments about relative state performance. This comparison tries to measure overall performance in balancing public health and economic policy. However it is heavily skewed toward public health as a priority giving it over 70% of ranking weight.<o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal">The approval ratings of Governors during the COVID-2 SARS Pandemic have been tracked by a consortium of universities led by Harvard University. Interestingly, some of the governors with the worst records in the pandemic have some of the highest approval ratings (e.g. MA, NY, NJ, RI, and CT). Some lower rated governors have far better records.<br /><br />In some cases there may be a disconnect. For example, Oregon is performing well against COVID, but its governor is very low in approval ratings. This may be more about wildfires and riots in Portland.</p><p class="MsoNormal">To measure overall state performance three factors were considered: 1) percentage of state population that died with COVID-19; 2) percentage of those testing postive that died and 3) economic performance as measured by job losses. Each of these three categories was weighted given its priority and impact. <br /><br />Deaths were weighted highest at 100 points. Percentage of those testing positive that died (an indicator of overall state public health performance) was weighted 25 points. Economic performance based on the percentage of a state’s population that is not working as a result of the pandemic (both unemployed and those who have left the work force) was weighted at 50 points. </p><p class="MsoNormal">An ever increasing concern about the long term economic and social impact of mitigation strategies began early in the pandemic. Each state was in a different situation as the virus did not attack all states uniformly or in a common timeline. Those suffering the worst impact of the virus focused on public health. Those experiencing less of an impact began to focus on the economic impact. </p><p class="MsoNormal"><o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal"></p><p class="MsoNormal">The result of this analysis provided the following ranking from worst ( Rank 51) to best ( Rank 1). The color coding indicates better (green) to worse (red) groupings of about 20% of states in each group:</p><p class="MsoNormal"><o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgaiVv9gkdRT5fuxCrDHGqyQeE63JyLx4AXS4RoArIAplv1957MX3IiFTtmQ8z2UQ4KVUoWlLv2DE0UV3GnqWGpEBSIacatweIVq2tL5cEsDJraysDD_RSDFl8DRYrRPcbtlQktgU8WMZg/" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="398" data-original-width="449" height="567" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgaiVv9gkdRT5fuxCrDHGqyQeE63JyLx4AXS4RoArIAplv1957MX3IiFTtmQ8z2UQ4KVUoWlLv2DE0UV3GnqWGpEBSIacatweIVq2tL5cEsDJraysDD_RSDFl8DRYrRPcbtlQktgU8WMZg/w640-h567/image.png" width="640" /></a></div><br /><p></p><p class="MsoNormal">The overall score is derived from the three categories in the next table listed in state alphabetical order. An example to illustrate how the overall score and ranking was derived follows:</p></div></div><blockquote style="border: none; margin: 0px 0px 0px 40px; padding: 0px;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">Massachusetts ranked 50th in the percentage of its population that died with COVID. That category is weighted 100. 50x100=5000 points for category one. Massachusetts ranked 49th for the percentage of deaths for those testing positive for COVID. That category is weighted 25. 49x25=1225. Masachusetts ranked 51st in its percentage of population out of work by either leaving the workforce or looking for work but unemployed in August. That category is weighted 50. 51X50=2550. Thus, Massachusetts had a total score of 5000+1225+2550=8775. This is the highest score of any state. Therefore, Massachusetts is ranked at the bottom of performance at #51. </p></div></div></blockquote><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgxY5xS7m8abZLjL9azq_EjfGDmUfKqiGeXGpEIq-LTQotG5GvKkKUm7n3iJOQXE62IInSgkrn-w2pQCsq2U8E3wU_G9WI-dpGVTkt44AHNSGnARQ3P6iF3IvI3CDMgAUerK95IKUr0mOI/" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="864" data-original-width="577" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgxY5xS7m8abZLjL9azq_EjfGDmUfKqiGeXGpEIq-LTQotG5GvKkKUm7n3iJOQXE62IInSgkrn-w2pQCsq2U8E3wU_G9WI-dpGVTkt44AHNSGnARQ3P6iF3IvI3CDMgAUerK95IKUr0mOI/s16000/image.png" /></a></div><br /></div><p><br /></p><p class="MsoNormal"><br /></p></div>Liberty Takes Efforthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13398225334133635697noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8054521671768779399.post-43738536187322045032020-07-25T19:41:00.003-04:002020-10-24T14:55:40.726-04:00New Cape Cod Canal Bridges – Yay<br />
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The Army Corps of Engineers and the Commonwealth
of Massachusetts signed a <a href="https://www.mass.gov/news/memorandum-of-understanding-reached-between-massdot-and-the-us-army-corps-of-engineers" target="_blank">memorandum of understanding</a> to partner in the planning
and construction of two new bridges to replace the Sagamore and Bourne
Bridges that now span the Cape Cod Canal.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>This is good news. It is another
step taken toward a needed change for which many have advocated for decades.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></div>
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Despite the news of
progress, one must lament the snail’s pace by which such things are
achieved.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The quicksand of regulation,
litigation, and political and bureaucratic decision-making took so long to arrive at this point. One fears that the long drawn out process will carry over into the next steps and the two new bridges will not be completed until far into the future - 2050 is not unthinkable.<o:p></o:p></div>
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The federal and state memorandum indicates that both agree that
funding is a federal government responsibility, but it will be up to Congress
to appropriate the funds.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The Massachusetts
Department of Transportation will be lead agency in bridge delivery.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>When completed the Commonwealth will own,
operate, and maintain the new bridges.<o:p></o:p></div>
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Over the past two decades many have advocated the
replacement of the bridges. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>It has
taken that long to reach a decision to simply move forward with a plan to replace
the bridges.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>A wide variety of possible
alternatives to the two aging bridges were proposed and considered.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The Army Corps concluded earlier this year
through a <a href="https://capecodcanalbridgesstudy.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/CCCB-MRER-Final-March2020.pdf" target="_blank">Major Rehabilitation Evaluation (MRE)</a> study that the bridges can no
longer be maintained, and two new bridges are needed. </div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgOmNE6Pqst-GsiHZiHBWNbezjQGdDUzsdeEQ6mXydS1U7Xvu7DJEfOcHQiibg5nOtxEp76ZLGTAa1sxiEWwQe3K_kmShsAxDR1ARIwW81snAq7prE5Jhd5VCjk2hLT78nYeRSFnewsja4/s1600/New+Bridge+Lanes.jpg" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="275" data-original-width="615" height="143" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgOmNE6Pqst-GsiHZiHBWNbezjQGdDUzsdeEQ6mXydS1U7Xvu7DJEfOcHQiibg5nOtxEp76ZLGTAa1sxiEWwQe3K_kmShsAxDR1ARIwW81snAq7prE5Jhd5VCjk2hLT78nYeRSFnewsja4/s320/New+Bridge+Lanes.jpg" width="320" /></a></div>
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Conceptual designs envision two new cable stay bridges (Zakim is a cable stay bridge) inshore of the
existing bridges.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Each would have two
through lanes in each direction plus an enter/exit lane in each direction, a ten foot shoulder,
and a 10 foot pedestrian lane.<o:p></o:p></div>
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Given that it took almost ten years after serious discussion of bridge replacement began to reach this point, one should not get too excited about quick summer Cape Cod departures on Sunday morning coming any time soon.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></div>
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The Cape Cod Canal was built to improve the safety and
economics of shipping.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Myles Standish
proposed connecting two rivers in the present canal region as early as 1627.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>George Washington had the same thought, but
to protect Colonial shipping in the Revolutionary War.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>August Belmont was a wealthy financier who
in 1904 took the vision of many others and made it reality by forming a company
to build the Cape Cod Canal.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>About 15-20,000
vessels pass through the canal each year saving them approximately 135 miles of
transit around Cape Cod.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Large barges and ships transport decreasing cargo tonnage with each year.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Traffic is overwhelmingly pleasure craft
today.<o:p></o:p></div>
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Early bridges across the canal were largely an afterthought.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> However, w</span>ith the advent of auto travel in the early 20<sup>th</sup>
century, a new reality quickly changed priorities and the current Sagamore, Bourne
and Railroad bridges were built.</div>
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<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"></span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></div>
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The three bridges were authorized
in September 1933.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Work began three
months later.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>About 900 men earning
about one dollar per hour constructed the bridges in 18 months for a total cost
for all three bridges of about $4.5M.<o:p></o:p></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEidKpXMzZRXlCzEOD7U9fPZADH3dC1PAxnGY41AVwS3KizI0QxVnTYzr-8VYy7H6cuRT0vYupJ9ZadG-D71X7HTYdudKzqVAWTIPZ8rxFcCaHcQ9MfKSsO4YT7Nb97mkXHdcQw7qj_ZX_E/s1600/New+Bridge+Sagamore+ACE.jpg" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="301" data-original-width="504" height="191" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEidKpXMzZRXlCzEOD7U9fPZADH3dC1PAxnGY41AVwS3KizI0QxVnTYzr-8VYy7H6cuRT0vYupJ9ZadG-D71X7HTYdudKzqVAWTIPZ8rxFcCaHcQ9MfKSsO4YT7Nb97mkXHdcQw7qj_ZX_E/s320/New+Bridge+Sagamore+ACE.jpg" width="320" /></a>Applying inflation those three bridges would be
constructed for about $84 million today.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Wages would be about $19 per hour today rather than $1 in 1935.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> W</span>ages will be a lot higher cost in the project than just inflation. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Federal law will demand prevailing wage on
the project and Massachusetts politics will ensure union labor is used in all aspects
of the project. </div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiMkRofHmNC_XfyaIbcAd0AzqkJ3mqhbLBwt-IzMtLHUJj-QiVwHi1RiEw2tr0nuiUeEe1I1NAw0ajoGfxvbOQP25Q-LHB6qAwQOWQw21CmoiBRWXacYrvdwrdRUXIAnSqnXSemkvWvTDo/s1600/Army+Corps+Bridge.jpg" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="363" data-original-width="600" height="193" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiMkRofHmNC_XfyaIbcAd0AzqkJ3mqhbLBwt-IzMtLHUJj-QiVwHi1RiEw2tr0nuiUeEe1I1NAw0ajoGfxvbOQP25Q-LHB6qAwQOWQw21CmoiBRWXacYrvdwrdRUXIAnSqnXSemkvWvTDo/s320/Army+Corps+Bridge.jpg" width="320" /></a>Of course, the construction is not going to cost $84 million. The Army Corps of Engineers estimates slightly more than $1 billion to
replace the two road bridges in their bridge study (see table right). However, last year they reportedly estimated $1.45-1.6 billion.</div>
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Government project cost
estimates are consistently well below projections. A total cost of $2 billion would not be surprising. The Big Dig will stand very evident in debates about funding.<o:p></o:p></div>
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The three original bridges were constructed in 18
months!<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>A decision was made in September 1933.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Construction began in December 1933.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>In June, 1935 the bridges opened. Eighteen months is obviously not achievable in the modern era and context. </div>
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Expect about ten years of pre-construction work. Financing of the project requires action by Congress that is not assured. Preliminary engineering will be done to support a full environmental impact study. Some work has already been done in this regard. After the environmental impact study is complete and approved there will be further permitting requirements. Assuming everyone
with something to say will get a chance to hold up the project, as is normal practice, construction may not begin for ten years. </div>
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<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></div>
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One would think this could go a little faster given that the
sighting is right next to the existing bridges, but that is not how things work
in the real world. So, actual construction might begin about 2030 if all goes smoothly.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhyUnmGTjNImUl3uDuDb_AfFZkBPAelQnn-IzGqEzOJb7WtA7NMugYJfLYtThBAISmMFQ4YgfoiLRa9VDUpnzQxnB7rgw8OEJOkwbDAxPp6LyGQMOzEW1hSQ8qxhNDrJ1tvY9VA6whB3vc/s1600/Army+Corp+Bridges.jpg" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="487" data-original-width="600" height="259" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhyUnmGTjNImUl3uDuDb_AfFZkBPAelQnn-IzGqEzOJb7WtA7NMugYJfLYtThBAISmMFQ4YgfoiLRa9VDUpnzQxnB7rgw8OEJOkwbDAxPp6LyGQMOzEW1hSQ8qxhNDrJ1tvY9VA6whB3vc/s320/Army+Corp+Bridges.jpg" width="320" /></a>One
would think modern building techniques and equipment would predict faster construction, but it will not compete favorably with 900 men heating rivets and rigging iron with the aid of some early crane equipment in 1935. </div>
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The Leonard Zakim Bridge in Boston was built as part of the Big Dig. It is of similar type proposed and its span is similar to the Canal bridges. It took six years. </div>
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Anticipate a sequential construction project that allows lessons to be learned in constructing the first bridge to apply to the second. A construction process will likely be on the order of 5-7 years for the first bridge and 4-6 for the second bridge.</div>
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Optimistically, the first bridge could be open as early as 2035 and the second in 2040 when the existing bridges are over 100 years old. One can only imagine the condition of the existing bridges 15-20 years from now. <br />
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Hopefully, the many peripheral construction projects that can be done earlier and have a major impact will be performed before the actual bridge construction. This would include things like exit ramp changes in anticipation of the new bridges.</div>
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Why does it take so long and cost so much now to accomplish these types of projects? Largely it results from regulatory change of all varieties. Regulation exists for a reason and it is not inherently bad. But can it become so excessive that a state or nation finds itself almost paralyzed in achieving anything of consequence? </div>
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Of course, much needed change in labor rules occurred in the early 20<sup>th</sup> Century. Men were making $1 a day with no benefits at
all in 1935. There was little concern for safety. There was no need of an environmental impact study back then and permitting was probably not even
in place at that time. Needed
change occurred in this regard throughout the 20<sup>th</sup> Century. But maybe
it has gone too far and is a little too stringent. Maybe it has become counterproductive in its extremes to solving
problems. The Trump Administration has issued executive orders and regulatory changes to shorten the completion requirement of Environmental Impact Studies to two years for major projects. That could accelerate the project.</div>
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One wonders about this when it takes 30 years from when people began seriously discussing the need for new bridges
and the projected completion of the project. The amazing accomplishment of 900 men in 1935 building three bridges that will have a 100 year life span in 18 months seems in contrast an even greater achievement than was thought.</div>
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<br />Liberty Takes Efforthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13398225334133635697noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8054521671768779399.post-77689591883727127912020-07-25T08:44:00.004-04:002020-10-24T14:56:18.679-04:00Assessing State COVID-19 Performance<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
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I perform my own analysis of data from multiple reputable sources to better inform myself about COVID-19. I share some of that analysis here. I am not an epidemiologist or government official. My analysis is my own personal pursuit of better understanding in an often unclear and conflicting reporting environment. Some of my blog readers may find it interesting and maybe even helpful. It is a layman's work, so keep that in mind. In this specific post I use the following
sources:<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The <a href="https://covidtracking.com/about" target="_blank">Covid Tracking Project</a> : <a href="https://rt.live/" target="_blank">Rtlive</a> ; and the <a href="https://www.bls.gov/web/laus/laumstcm.htm" target="_blank">Bureau of Labor Statistics</a>.<br />
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First, I created the Venn diagram at right to provide a context for my writing. As is the normal course in present day America there are those that try and divide by making every issue an either/or binary choice for political alignment. I reject that. The COVID-19 pandemic is complex and at least three areas - public health, rights and responsibilities, and economic impact - should be a part of any pandemic policy. A skeptical public should take responsibility for demanding balance and evidence of efficacy in policy.<br />
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The lack of depth in media reporting is what instigates my own analysis. There is an overwhelming inclination in government and the
media to report raw numbers of COVID-19 cases and deaths. Raw numbers tell us
little to nothing of value. What does a statistic mean if it is not compared
or contrasted with something else to measure its relative impact, value,
threat, or risk? It is in comparisons where we find value and knowledge. For example, one can compare states to measure relative performance and gain insights into
policy effectiveness or compare a state's performance over time to reveal
trends within a state.<o:p></o:p></div><span><a name='more'></a></span>
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The tables that follow rank states in order of performance largely by comparing them based on the percentage of their population that has died, is currently hospitalized, has been tested, etc. Using the percentage of the population comparison normalizes the measurement, unlike a raw number. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The
color coding breaks the states down into 20% increments displayed red (worse) to green (better).<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><br />
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The State Name column assumes the same color code as the percentage of the population that has died with COVID-19 (% POP DEATHS) and retains that color code in all tables.<br />
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<b>STATE PERFORMANCE OVERALL - DEATHS</b></div>
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In my judgement the most important reflection of a state’s
performance throughout the pandemic is the percentage of its population that has died with COVID-19.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>This table is sorted
by that statistic (% POP DEATHS), but also contains related variables.<br />
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There are statistical definition, collection and reporting issues that cause uncertainty in reporting COVID-19 deaths. For example, early cases may not have been detected, and a death is reported for anyone who dies "with" not necessarily "from" COVID-19. The % POSITIVE DEATHS column reflects the percentage of people tested positive for COVID-19 that died in the state. This can reflect disproportionate institutional elderly deaths in a state or reflect on how well a state's health care system responded to the virus. The % Tot US Deaths column reflects the percentage of all United States COVID-19 deaths that occurred in a state. Note that the worst performing eleven states represent 23% of the U.S. population but 56% of the deaths from COVID-19.<br />
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The morbidity of COVID-19 still cannot be calculated. Morbidity is calculated by dividing the number of deaths by the number of cases. We still do not have an accurate number of cases. There are many more cases of COVID-19 that go undetected than are detected. The head of the Centers for Disease Control said that there may be ten times as many cases as are detected and a recent report indicates it could be in a range of 6 to 24 times the reported cases depending on the state. See <a href="https://www.libertytakeseffort.com/2020/04/covid-19-risk-assessment-model.html#more" target="_blank">previous blog posts</a> I have written to understand better the uncertainty of collecting and reporting data about COVID-19.</div>
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<b>CURRENT PERFORMANCE - TESTING, CASES, HOSPITALIZATIONS</b></div>
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To better understand how a state is performing currently one
can look to testing, lagging 7 day averages of cases, percentage of the population
that is hospitalized, and other variables.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>In the table
below several of these variables are indicated in columns.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>It is sorted by the percentage of the state population that is currently hospitalized (% POP in Hospital).<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>This
variable is used because others, such as cases (% Tested Positive), are influenced by many other
variables, such as testing volume, and are not necessarily predictive of the intensity of either
hospitalizations or deaths. </div>
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Hospitalizations is a critical data element because one major
goal in regulating the rate of virus spread is to prevent overwhelming hospitals.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>There is no standardization among states or at the federal level of data reporting on hospitalizations. Kansas still reports nothing. The timeliness and extent of hospital data variables (e.g. percent bed capacity used, ICU, demographics of patients, etc.) reporting is different in every state. It is essential that this change. The threat of overwhelming a state or regions hospital capacity cannot be assessed without detailed data on a number of variables.<o:p></o:p><br />
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I will use Florida as an example as it has been the subject of much media attention because it has seen a dramatic increase in cases.</div>
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Florida increased its testing significantly in recent weeks to average nearly 100,000 tests daily. The percentage of those tested that are positive is about 13-14% over the past two weeks. That was a significant increase. It is true, as some have stated, that if you increase testing you will increase the number of detected cases because we know we may be missing many infected people who have no symptoms and do not get tested. However, that does not entirely explain the increased percentage of positive tests - there is likely increased spread. Florida's increasing number of cases lowered it from number 18 to number 47 in state ranking over the past few weeks.<br />
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Many states are increasing testing. The purpose of the testing is to underpin Contact Tracing. A person is tested and state authorities are supposed to use the report of that positive test to reach out to anyone who had contact with the infected person, test them and isolate them, in order to slow virus spread. This only works if there is a quick turn around of tests. If the test result is not reported within 48 hours it's value is greatly diminished in the contact tracing effort. Labs are overwhelmed with the increased volume of testing in many states and there are reports of up to two weeks in the turn around of test results.<br />
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Contact tracing is critical to a strategy to throttle spread of the virus, but it's effectiveness is questionable and its reporting of detail to the public is rare. This issue is deserving of serious governmental and journalistic inquiry. When a governor says he/she is shutting down beaches the first journalist with the opportunity should ask, "Governor, can you provide us with the number and circumstance of infection and spread on a beach based on contact tracing evidence?" <br />
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In another indicator of the increased spread in Florida there is an increase in hospitalizations. Florida is in the unenviable position of last place in hospitalizations today as indicated in the table below. The spread and impact is largely, once again, in the Miami-Dade, Broward, and Palm Beach county areas. The state is challenged to ensure that spread does not keep increasing and overwhelm the hospitals. Will lower average age of cases and better treatments result in a much shorter stay in the hospital with less serious interventions? If the length of stay is shorter the number of new daily cases that can be tolerated is greater and the issue becomes one of churn. The number of hospitalizations has been decreasing in recent days.<br />
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Despite increased cases and hospitalizations Florida is ranked in the middle of the pack among states for deaths. It has gone in recent weeks from number 25 to number 29 in rank for the percentage of its population that has died with COVID-19. Deaths have and will increase with increased spread, but how much? Thus far, it is not the same as it was in the early days of COVID-19 because the population that is getting infected is younger, healthier and does not suffer such severe consequences as older patients, particularly those in institutional settings. In April the median age of those infected in Florida was 65. It dropped to about 35 in June and rose to and steadied at about 41 right now.<br />
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FUTURE PERFORMANCE - ESTIMATING SPREAD WITH Rt<o:p></o:p></div>
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Any state that is pounding its chest crowing about its recent
performance should be very cautious.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>We
still do not know a lot about the virus.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> S</span>ocial
distancing and other actions to control spread can work, but to what extent is not known or measured. Many variables are at play, so there is a great deal of uncertainty about why or whether cases will rise or fall in any state. <o:p></o:p></div>
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One data element that may help to predict spread intensity
is the Effective Reproduction Number or Rt.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> Rt is</span> the average number of people who become infected by an infectious person. If Rt is above 1.0, the virus is spreading and the higher the Rt above 1 the faster it is spreading. When Rt is below 1.0, the virus spread is slowing. Twelve states had an average Rt below 1 on July 24, an increase from seven in the past week or so. There is a trending of improvement for many states while others are declining. This could make the case increases of the previous weeks in
many states a blip rather than a trend. It may also portend blips in states that currently are thinking they are doing well. It is the nature of what we are doing - throttling, assessing, and reacting in order to maintain balance between COVID-19 suppression, economic expansion, and protection of constitutional rights.<br />
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Governor Charlie Baker of Massachusetts this week issued further restricting orders on the Massachusetts population and threatened more severe actions. He also placed restrictions on those traveling to Massachusetts from most other states. Hospitalizations and deaths have been relatively low in Massachusetts in recent weeks. Why is the Governor increasing restrictions? One reason may be that the Massachusetts Rt has been over 1 for more than two weeks and may portend an increase in cases. At the same time, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis may be optimistic as the Florida Rt has been below 1 for about two weeks and improving, and hospitalizations may have begun a downward trend. </div>
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ECONOMIC BALANCE - UNEMPLOYMENT TRENDS<o:p></o:p></div>
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Locking down the nation for public health reasons has unintended consequences that include the decline of the economy, personal financial ruin for many, and psycho/social
suffering.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The economy cannot be stifled forever or with each new virus. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">Political construct narratives try to frame the debate in an either/or argument of LOCK DOWN or FULL OPEN. What we must actually achieve is a balance of continuing economic expansion while preventing hospitals from being overwhelmed and moderating the number of deaths.</span></div>
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I use the table below to see how well a state is doing in moving its economy forward.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>The ranking is based on the change in unemployment within the state from
May to June, 2020.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><br />
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<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">One can see the priorities of states in their performance. For example, at state rank 51, Massachusetts had the worst unemployment rate in the U.S. in June at 17.4% and ranked 47th in percent change from May to June. Florida ranked 32nd in state unemployment in June and 18th in change from May to June from 13.7% to 10%. Florida is more aggressive in trying to open its economy. Massachusetts is more aggressive in public health behavior restrictions. Their economic numbers reflect their priorities. Again, it is about balancing these concerns to find an acceptable outcome in all areas.</span><o:p></o:p></div>
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CONSTITUTIONAL ISSUES<br />
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Federal and state governments have fairly broad authority constitutionally, in law, and in court precedent to take action in response to a public health emergency. However, it is not unlimited. There has been little challenge to the decrees of governors in the courts. One could expect cases to begin to materialize from both civil liberty advocacy groups and individuals who question the capriciousness and lack of evidence-based-reasoning for some restrictions.<br />
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Americans do not give up their due process guarantees under the Constitution because there is a public health threat. Restrictions have to be reasoned with evidence, targeted, non-discriminatory, and offer avenues of challenge to the individual. A public health emergency is not a blank check for presidents and governors that ONLY considers the risk of infection and death from a virus.<br />
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The restrictions on movement between states may be ripe for challenge. Several states have implemented restrictions on travel into their states from other states. The latest restrictions placed by Governor Charlie Baker of Massachusetts is an example. It is a broad stroke restriction against other states that may be illegal. California could not ban people migrating from Oklahoma in 1941 under the Commerce Clause. The Privileges and Immunities Clause has been used in cases to stop states from discriminating against the citizens of other states.<br />
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My point is that there is always the opportunity for abuse in emergencies. If the restriction of rights is not tested, especially in the worst of times, those precedents will potentially stand in future emergencies as the foundation for further governmental power expansion to the detriment of individual liberties. As Justice Jackson said about government emergency powers to detain Japanese Americans during WWII, “[it] lies about like a loaded weapon, ready for the hand of any authority that can bring forward a plausible claim of an urgent need.” Fear cannot be allowed to turn heads from rigorous protection of constitutional rights.<br />
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Liberty Takes Efforthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13398225334133635697noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8054521671768779399.post-54350594534897271842020-04-30T07:51:00.001-04:002020-07-08T11:04:21.611-04:00Should hard hit states reassess Covid-19 strategy?<br />
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<span style="color: #1d2129; font-size: 10.5pt;">Massachusetts Governor Charlie Baker announced this week an extension to his May 18 “Stay
At Home" order. The Mayors of Somerville, Cambridge and Peabody, MA ordered the
wearing of masks in public places (indoor and outdoor) with fines for
non-compliance of between $300 - $1000. </span><span style="color: #1d2129; font-size: 10.5pt;"> </span><span style="color: #1d2129; font-size: 10.5pt;">Is
doubling down on a general population lock down strategy the right path going forward? Or does the
overall strategy need review?</span></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi1_eqBwcYE3jEOYU1qSSPnhHunjPZjiHo6cdEP4vBL7iTDbZSitqlvEcwHK_6ux-a7fnr1jJknBKdcDCfG2e916c3InSegs7FsyHzLXuRy4P2eN3PMR5MqG5eQ6pUVR9LGSlemaCUptR4/s1600/Buffalo.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="225" data-original-width="298" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi1_eqBwcYE3jEOYU1qSSPnhHunjPZjiHo6cdEP4vBL7iTDbZSitqlvEcwHK_6ux-a7fnr1jJknBKdcDCfG2e916c3InSegs7FsyHzLXuRy4P2eN3PMR5MqG5eQ6pUVR9LGSlemaCUptR4/s1600/Buffalo.jpg" /></a><span style="color: #1d2129; font-family: "inherit" , serif; font-size: 10.5pt;">One can reasonably ask:<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Is
the strategy of generalized social distancing with increasing restriction
appropriate going forward? Would it be more effective to target the virus
directly where it is most insidious and deadly, focus resources there, and
allow a <b>gradual development of herd immunity in the general population?</b></span></div>
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<span style="color: #1d2129; font-family: "inherit" , serif; font-size: 10.5pt;">Last week the Wall Street Journal reported over 10,000 COVID-19
associated deaths at elder care facilities. This number is likely to go up in
both number and percentage terms. The WSJ has built its own database by
contacting state departments of health directly because reporting from government sources was rare.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>California released data this weekend
indicating nearly 40% of its deaths come from nursing home and elder care
facilities. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The World Health
Organization (WHO) reports half of Europe's deaths from COVID-19 were from
elder care facilities.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="color: #1d2129; font-family: "inherit" , serif; font-size: 10.5pt;">The <a href="https://www.mass.gov/doc/covid-19-dashboard-april-28-2020/download" target="_blank">Massachusetts Department of Public Health COVID-19 Dashboard</a>
indicates nearly 60% of the 3153 MA deaths occurred in long-term care
facilities.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>This percentage might rise as the definition may
only indicate those that die on nursing home property not those that were
released to home or died in hospitals after transfer from a nursing home.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="color: #1d2129; font-family: "inherit" , serif; font-size: 10.5pt;">In Massachusetts, the 70 and older age group made up 86% of confirmed
COVID-19 deaths with those 80 and older making up nearly 65%.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> There have been no deaths in the 0-19 age group and 33 in total for those in age groups under 50. Ninety-eight percent (98%)</span> of those who died in MA, and for which a full
investigation has been completed, had underlying conditions. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="color: #1d2129; font-size: 10.5pt;"><span style="font-family: inherit , serif;">A</span>nti-body testing is indicating the virus is more prevalent than was previously indicated. Massachusetts General Hospital random
testing of 200 people in Chelsea, MA revealed more than 30% had antibodies to the
SARS-CoV-2 virus that causes COVID-19 disease. </span><span style="color: #1d2129; font-size: 10.5pt;"> </span><span style="color: #1d2129; font-size: 10.5pt;">It is recognized that there are some technical
concerns about this study’s sampling methodology, but there is a building body
of evidence across the country and the world to show SARS-CoV-2 prevalence in the general population may be much more than previously indicated.</span></div>
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<span style="color: #1d2129; font-family: "inherit" , serif; font-size: 10.5pt;">Is there an alternative to doubling down on general population social
distancing? Might it be more prudent to focus on those in poor health with co-morbidities, particularly the frail elderly, and especially those in concentrated living
conditions such as long-term care facilities, public housing, and dense urban high rises?<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="color: #1d2129; font-family: "inherit" , serif; font-size: 10.5pt;">There is no doubt that people in poor health with co-morbidities,
particularly elders, must be super vigilant in their personal protection until
herd immunity is achieved through either vaccine or exposure in the general
population.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The timeline to that goal could be more than a
year away.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>They will need support from their families, communities,
and governments.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="color: #1d2129; font-family: "inherit" , serif; font-size: 10.5pt;">Specific dramatic action is needed in long-term elder care
facilities.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>If necessary, the National Guard
should directly engage at these facilities to ensure testing, isolation,
infectious disease control, hygiene, high staff to patient ratios, and other techniques
are adequate to control and stop the spread of virus in these facilities and to
ensure the virus is not further spread from them to hospitals or transport equipment
used in the general community. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Florida created
National Guard strike teams that were sent to nursing homes throughout the
state in early April.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="color: #1d2129; font-family: "inherit" , serif; font-size: 10.5pt;">Restrictions on the general population’s movement through stay at home orders would be reduced to
<b>allow herd immunity to develop gradually </b>while avoiding spikes that could overwhelm hospitals.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Personal hygiene techniques would continue to be encouraged.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Specific activities, such as large gatherings
in concentration with close contact, that could spur a major outbreak, would continue
to be discouraged.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> Sampling, t</span>esting,
surveillance, and contact tracing would be used to identify a particularly
rapid growth in a specific location.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Hospitals
and public health agencies would focus on building capacity in the event there
are outbreak bursts of one kind or another, ensuring their capacity is not
overwhelmed.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="color: #1d2129; font-family: "inherit" , serif; font-size: 10.5pt;">The initial goal to “Flatten the Curve” was reasonable given the
warnings provided with imperfect data.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>That strategy was successful.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>But
mission creep seems to have taken hold and an undeclared strategy to “stop the virus" is taking hold.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>This is not achievable nor advised.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>The virus is here to stay. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>A
vaccine is not guaranteed for this virus nor any morph that may occur going forward.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>In this uncertainty a <b>deliberate strategy of
slow exposure to build herd immunity</b> may be warranted.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Fining people for going outdoors in public without
a mask would not be part of such a strategy.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="color: #1d2129; font-family: "inherit" , serif; font-size: 10.5pt;">There are examples of alternative strategies. Sweden is one
example. The U.S. federal system creates 50 different approaches from which to
learn. Some states have targeted the vulnerable populations and used less
restrictive social distancing policy in the general population with success.
Florida is one example. The states being hit hardest (NY, NJ, CT, MA, LA, MI)
are suffering disproportionately, yet they have some of the firmest restrictions.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The reasons for this disproportion are not yet
known.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>But the states' strategies may in part be
at fault and demand an assessment. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="color: #1d2129; font-family: "inherit" , serif; font-size: 10.5pt;">I recommend the MA DPH COVID-19 Dashboard to my friends in MA
who are interested in the details of impact in my home state:<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><a href="https://www.mass.gov/doc/covid-19-dashboard-april-28-2020/download">https://www.mass.gov/doc/covid-19-dashboard-april-28-2020/download</a><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="color: #1d2129; font-family: "inherit" , serif; font-size: 10.5pt;"><o:p> </o:p></span><span style="color: #1d2129; font-size: 10.5pt;"> </span></div>
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<i><span style="color: #1d2129; font-family: inherit , serif; font-size: 10.5pt;">Aside: To question state strategies is seen by some as irresponsible. I strongly disagree. There is comfort in conformity in dangerous times. But that conformity can be the witches brew of poor decision making and even oppression. It is in time of crisis and fear that courage is needed to question those in authority and vehemently encourage, not suppress, open discussion and countervailing alternative views. There is no courage without vulnerability. </span></i></div>
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<i><span style="color: #1d2129; font-family: inherit , serif; font-size: 10.5pt;">The chant that citizens of this great republic must blindly accept and conform to the opinions and policies of government, public health officials, scientists, or doctors is, well, as FDR said, “poppycock.” Daniel Henninger, said it best in today’s Wall Street Journal, “push back hard against the current fashion of sacrilizing the notion of certitude in science and medicine."</span></i></div>
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<i><span style="color: #1d2129; font-family: inherit , serif; font-size: 10.5pt;">This is not to suggest anarchy or the chaos of the ignorant and selfish over the considered opinions of respected scientists. Coordinated action, conformity, compliance and even enforcement, are appropriate in their place and time to achieve great things. But unquestioning compliance and conformity to power without proof, and continuous and rigorous review of evidence and efficacy, has no place in the republic.</span></i></div>
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<i><span style="color: #1d2129; font-family: inherit , serif; font-size: 10.5pt;">Six states with less than 20% of the U.S. population produced nearly 70% of the COVID-19 associated deaths thus far. The strategies and decisions of the leaders in those states should be questioned. Deferring to their authority is absurd when, as in the Commonwealth of Massachusetts, the decision-makers own, operate, and regulate two of the worst hit long term care facilities in the state. The death of nearly 70 veterans of the 230 living at the Commonwealth’s Holyoke Veterans Home screams out, demanding the courage to question those in authority.</span></i></div>
<br />Liberty Takes Efforthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13398225334133635697noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8054521671768779399.post-54369294984859880042020-04-19T12:51:00.000-04:002020-04-30T06:43:14.348-04:00COVID-19: Risk Assessment, Model Uncertainty, Unknown Prevalence, Unclear Mortality, Alternative Paths, and State Anomalies <br />
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The COVID-19 battle is trending favorably. There is reason to be
grateful for lower death rates, less
hospitalization, less ICU use, and less ventilator need than was predicted.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> Those that directly engaged at great personal risk, from first responders to health care workers, deserve our thanks. Moving forward </span>vigilance and rigorous critical analysis is needed to understand the risk COVID-19 posed. There is much we do not know to include:<o:p></o:p></div>
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<br />
How prevalent is it in the population? <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><br />
What is the mortality rate?<br />
Did uncertain models overly inform and influence narrative and government
policy?<br />
What role, and to what degree, did social distancing influence cases and
deaths?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></div>
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<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">Were there alternative strategies that could have been as effective?</span></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhPRdZs8AzmoTE8oZZidT7kLnb256Fw4gAHf6UHe6CtRJ2HTC-VeES51mJUh0Q8fdWCQKNdjQzUGPc2WbNfyeZke3qM5ntfUsJL_Ilyjwg4n9hSs2M8LgpfedHzudj0mkSUEi5eCEIQObk/s1600/Coronavirus+SARS-CoV-2+de+CDC.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="248" data-original-width="300" height="164" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhPRdZs8AzmoTE8oZZidT7kLnb256Fw4gAHf6UHe6CtRJ2HTC-VeES51mJUh0Q8fdWCQKNdjQzUGPc2WbNfyeZke3qM5ntfUsJL_Ilyjwg4n9hSs2M8LgpfedHzudj0mkSUEi5eCEIQObk/s200/Coronavirus+SARS-CoV-2+de+CDC.jpg" width="200" /></a>It is important that the nation undertake an investigation to fully understand the risks and realities of COVID-19 and
assess whether or not the actions that local, state, and federal governments were in fact necessary and
effective. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Shutting down the U.S. economy was an extreme action.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>It is an unsustainable action that cannot
become part of the standard play book for each new virus threat. Understanding what really happened in during the pandemic is essential to
ensuring future preparedness and viable strategies.</div>
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<o:p></o:p></div>
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My concern is that harmful policies were
taken by federal, state, and local governments that threaten our economic
well being and played loose with Constitutional rights based on uncertain predictive models. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Did the governments actions stop nearly 2.2. million
deaths?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Or, were the original
projections simply wrong? <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>We do not know.
We need to find out.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Our future well being may
depend on it.<o:p></o:p></div>
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As the COVID-19 pandemic settles down and election season
draws near some politicians are going to be patting themselves on the back for
having saved thousands if not millions of lives.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>If the total number of deaths by fall is approximately
60,000 President Trump can say his Administration's actions saved between 1.44 and 2.14 million
lives. This assumes the models were correct in their predictions.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Governors
can extrapolate their great success from the same numbers. A handful of governors will have to explain to
their citizens (particularly NY, NJ, MI, MA, LA, IL) why their states were negatively impacted disproportionately.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></div>
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The stories of success will rely on accepting the original
model estimates of high side death estimates of between 1.5 and 2.2 million
deaths if no mitigating actions were taken.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Modelling is uncertain estimating of the future – not fact.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Drastic policy action was taken that relied
on such modeling to assess risk.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>A great
deal more skepticism of public health modelling is warranted and each of the models relied upon require rigorous scrutiny.<o:p></o:p></div>
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<u>Understanding Risk</u><o:p></o:p></div>
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New York Governor Andrew Cuomo said of the lock down restrictions
he ordered on economic and social engagement in response to the COVID-19
pandemic, “"if everything we do saves just one life, I'll be happy."<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Did he really believe that?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Unlikely.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>He is an experienced politician who knows that leadership and governing
is about making hard choices and trade-offs.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></div>
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His statement begs the question how many deaths are
acceptable?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>As
President Trump frequently says in various ways the death of, “one person is too many.”<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>But he too knows that is sentimentality.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Leaders of states and countries make relative
judgments to achieve the best outcome.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> Sixty-thousand</span> potential deaths are a serious risk, but leaders must ask, “relative to what?” The cure or mitigation cannot be
more harmful than the disease.<o:p></o:p></div>
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There is risk all around us in daily life.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>As individuals and as a society we face risk
every day.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>We make choices personally
or through government or businesses or organizations to mitigate that
risk.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>As individuals we walk out our doors
every day and drive our cars to various locations for various reasons.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Transport is an essential aspect of modern
economic and social engagement.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Offset
against that activity is risk.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></div>
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<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"><br /></span></div>
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We know that nearly 37,000 people are killed and 3 million
seriously injured in cars every year.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Personal mitigation actions of safe driving technique and wearing a
seat belt reduce the probability we will fall victim to this risk.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Government establishes regulations and auto
manufacturers install technology that can and has reduced the number of deaths
and injuries.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>But there is only so much
mitigation that we can do.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The risk will
never be reduced to zero.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>So, we make a
relative choice that the benefit of driving in the car exceeds the risk of
being killed or injured in each trip that we take.<o:p></o:p></div>
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We endure influenza season because we cannot eliminate it - only mitigate its impact. Despite our technological and scientific prowess only one human virus has been eliminated - small pox in 1979. Last influenza season approximately 60,000 people died.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The risk of influenza is known with some
seasonal variation.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>We mitigate that
risk with the development of a vaccine thought to be most effective against the
dominant strain of the season (sometimes correctly, sometimes not). <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></div>
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According to the CDC 64% of children and 68%
of those over 65 and only 40% of those 18-64 were vaccinated last year.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> Sixty-thousand died despite this massive vaccination. COVID-19 is projected to kill about the same number without a vaccine. Does that mean COVID-19 is lower risk than seasonal influenza?</span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Maybe social
distancing substituted for and was as effective as influenza vaccination?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>We do not know but need to find out.<o:p></o:p></div>
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Assessing risk is extremely difficult when there is little information
upon which to assess the risk.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>In the
COVID-19 pandemic we lacked the knowledge to assess true risk.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Therefore, governmental leaders relied upon
epidemiological modelling to assess risk and acted upon it in ways that caused
other serious harms.</div>
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<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></div>
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<u>Modelling Narrative and Public Policy</u><o:p></o:p></div>
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The accuracy of modeling upon which government officials
relied is uncertain due to a lack of data, flawed assumptions, unspecific
definitions, and varied algorithm choices.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>John Allen Paulos, Professor of Mathematics at Temple University said in
an interview with WKMG Orlando, “No model is perfect, but most models are
somewhat useful… But we can’t confuse the model with reality.”<o:p></o:p></div>
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Early modeling of the potential progression of COVID-19
indicated a grave risk to public health.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>This modeling informed government decisions to take aggressive action to
slow the spread of the virus.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The United States of America shut down much of
the world’s largest economy and states restricted civil liberties in
reaction to this modeling. <o:p></o:p></div>
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Early models estimated as many as 2.2 million U.S. deaths
from COVID-19 if no action were taken to mitigate its course. The lowest
projections were a range of between 100,000 and 240,000 with aggressive mitigation. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The model currently favored by U.S.
authorities projects a death toll of approximately 60,308 by August 4<sup>th</sup>
within a range from 34,000 to 140,000. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Was this decrease the result of government
imposed social distancing and millions were saved? Or were the model
projections simply wrong and the lower death rate is because COVID-19 is not as
deadly as projected?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>We do not know but need to find out.<o:p></o:p></div>
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The U.S. risk assessment of the SARS-CoV-2 virus that causes
Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) was initially based on slow, sparse, and
sometimes politically suppressed reporting from the People’s Republic of China.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The implementation in late December, 2019 of
a quarantine in three cities in Hubei Province, including Wuhan where the
outbreak began, focused world attention on the virus.</div>
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<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></div>
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The U.S. officially became aware of the virus on January 3,
2020 when the director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention had a
conversation with Chinese colleagues.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>From
that point forward there was a struggle to understand the dimensions of the
problem, its overall risk, and an appropriate response.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>This began to change dramatically with the
formal release of epidemiological modelling using very limited data of Chinese
origin.<o:p></o:p></div>
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On March 13<sup>th</sup> the CDC issued a report based on
its modeling of the virus progression in China, “Estimating Risk for Death from
2019 Novel Coronavirus Disease, China, January–February 2020.”<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The CDC estimated the risk of death in Wuhan
reached “12% in the epicenter of the epidemic and ≈1% in other, more mildly
affected areas.”<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The CDC concluded, “Because
the risk for death from COVID-19 is probably associated with a breakdown of the
healthcare system in the absence of pharmaceutical interventions (i.e.,
vaccination and antiviral drugs), enhanced public health interventions
(including social distancing measures, quarantine, enhanced infection control
in healthcare settings, and movement restrictions), as well as enhanced
hygienic measures in the general population and an increase in healthcare
system capacity, should be implemented to rapidly contain the epidemic.”<o:p></o:p></div>
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Within two days of the release of the CDC report President
Trump declared a national emergency and allocated $50 billion to aid state and
local governments; the CDC recommended no gatherings of more than 50 people;
President Trump discouraged congregating in groups of more than 10; and New
York City closed the largest school system in the country.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The March 13<sup>th</sup> CDC modelling
report began driving the narrative and prescribing response to slow the virus
and mitigate impact.<o:p></o:p></div>
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On March 16, 2020 the Imperial College of London released a
report based on epidemiological modelling, “Impact of non-pharmaceutical
interventions (NPIs) to reduce COVID19 mortality and healthcare demand.”<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The
New York Times said, “Imperial is treated as a sort of gold standard, its
mathematical models feeding directly into government policies.”<o:p></o:p></div>
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The report linked COVID-19 to the worst pandemic in recent
history stating, “the public health threat it represents is the most serious
seen in a respiratory virus since the 1918 H1N1 influenza pandemic.”<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The authors’ models estimated for the UK
(Great Britain) and U.S., “in an unmitigated epidemic, we would predict
approximately 510,000 deaths in GB and 2.2 million in the US.”<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></div>
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This model played a major role in governmental response and
public perception in the UK and U.S.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></div>
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<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"></span>The
London model began driving the media narrative and U.S. policy.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>On March 29<sup>th</sup>, President Trump
said he heard the numbers from the London model for the first time earlier in
the day, and said, “I think we got our most accurate study today, or certainly
most comprehensive… think of the number, 2.2 million if we did nothing.”<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
The University of Oxford’s Evolutionary Ecology of
Infectious Disease group released a study shortly after the Imperial report
titled, “Fundamental principles of epidemic spread highlight the immediate need
for large-scale serological surveys to assess the stage of the SARS-CoV-2
epidemic.” The Oxford report contradicted
the Imperial estimates, stating the UK and Italy current wave in “the absence
of interventions should have an approximate duration of 2-3 months.” The researchers contend the infection rate is
much higher than many estimates and the first infections may have occurred a
month before the first reported deaths in the UK and Italy providing
significant levels of herd immunity. The
lead author, Professor Sunetra Gupta said, “I am surprised that there has been
such unqualified acceptance of the Imperial model.”</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Both the Imperial and Oxford studies were criticized for
different reasons.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>But the Imperial
report’s frightening number of 2.2 million deaths in the U.S. captured media
attention and propagated.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Anyone that
took exception to the threat the model indicated came under criticism.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Politicians who expressed doubt or did not
take fast and severe action were accused of ignoring scientific advisors. Some in the media calling those who questioned models “Covid
Deniers.”<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The Oxford study was treated
in this manner but may well prove in the end to have been more informative.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
On March 17<sup>th</sup>, John Ioannidis, Professor of
Medicine, Health Research and Policy, Biomedical Data Science at Stanford
University published, “A fiasco in the making? As the coronavirus pandemic
takes hold, we are making decisions without reliable data.”<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>He further stated, “The data collected so far
on how many people are infected and how the epidemic is evolving are utterly
unreliable… We don’t know if we are failing to capture infections by a factor
of three or 300.”<o:p></o:p></div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
The Santa Fe Institute recently published a series of
articles surrounding the lack of clarity in models and projections across the
world. In one report they state, “There is no shortage of data on the unfolding
coronavirus epidemic….The problem with this massive quantity of data is its
quality— data sets from different countries are not really compatible with each
other, are often internally inconsistent, and in some cases could be
politically manipulated.”<o:p></o:p></div>
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<br /></div>
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They point to specific issues in the data stating, “Test
density and methodology vary greatly; not all virus carriers also show
symptoms; not all infected people are identified; hospitals do not necessarily
report releases to the authorities; those who have recovered at home will not
always report; and the death toll is unclear, because it is difficult to
distinguish between people who die from corona versus with corona.”<o:p></o:p></div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
On March 31<sup>st</sup>, Dr. Deborah Birx, the White House
Coronavirus Response Coordinator, provided her “Goals of Community Mitigation”
presentation at the daily White House Coronavirus Task Force briefing.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Her first slide was the now familiar “Flattening
the Curve” graphic.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>She began thanking
“domestic modelers from Harvard, from Columbia, from Northeastern, from
Imperial [College of London] who helped us tremendously. It was their models
that created the ability to see what these mitigations could do.”<o:p></o:p></div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
She explained that there would be “between 1.5 million and
2.2 million people in the United States succumbing to this virus without
mitigation.”<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The Imperial College of
London high estimate evident at 2.2 million. The other institutions apparently estimated
no less than 1.5 million on the high end of their modeling.<o:p></o:p></div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Dr. Birx described the lower mitigated range as between
100,000 and 200,000 if actions such as social distancing and other actions were
taken.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>She then extolled the work of the
University of Washington Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IMHE) and
its modeling.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>IMHE used data from
Italy, Spain, South Korea and China to “give insight into the hospital needs,
the ventilator needs, and really the number of people who potentially could
succumb to this illness.”<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>She was
impressed by the model as it was updated daily with on the ground data from the
U.S. and could create projections by state.<o:p></o:p></div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
The IMHE model became the preferred model of the
federal government supplanting the Imperial College of London report.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>But almost immediately the IMHE estimates of
projected deaths and hospital requirements began to decrease in the model with
tremendous reductions in some states.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>“Forecasted
fatalities have fallen in North Carolina (-80%), Pennsylvania (-75%),
California (-70%), Texas (-65%) and Washington (-55%),” reported the Wall
Street Journal. <o:p></o:p></div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
On April 16<sup>th</sup> the IMHE model projected 68,841 deaths
by August 4<sup>th</sup>.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Two days
later on April 18<sup>th</sup> it had reduced that estimate to 60,308. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>On April 16<sup>th</sup> the model said
Florida would peak on May 2 and by August 4<sup>th</sup> would suffer 4748 deaths.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>By April 18<sup>th</sup>
IMHE reported that Florida had its peak on April 14<sup>th</sup> and the death
projection for August 4<sup>th</sup> had dropped to 1363.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
The point is that models are filled with uncertainty.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Skepticism is warranted.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Robust debate about the quality of models, how
the media portrays them, and how government policy is informed by they is
sorely needed.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
There is a divide beginning in social media that produces memes that try to make social distancing actions an either or choice of saving lives or lowering social distancing strategies. This is an illogical "false dilemma" argument. Two extreme points from a spectrum of potential choices give the impression that the options are mutually exclusive. They are not. </div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
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<u>Alternative Paths</u><o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Was there an alternative path to the national economic
shutdown?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Could
we instead have taken a very aggressive approach to protecting vulnerable
populations in institutions such as nursing homes, assisted living facilities, prisons,
high population density communities, poorer communities with known underlying
comorbidities, and encouraged those over 70 with underlying comorbidities to
isolate themselves as much as possible?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Could
we have kept schools open and encouraged families to avoid contact with
grandparents, elders, and those with comorbidities?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>All others would be encouraged to follow
hygiene recommendations. Mass entertainment and sports events would be
cancelled, and travel would be discouraged.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
The virus would be allowed to spread at a slower pace under these
restrictions relying on building immunity in the younger and healthy population
while aggressively protecting the vulnerable and treating the sick.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Sweden has taken the alternative path similar to that described
in the preceding few paragraphs.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The IMHE
model projects 5,890 deaths in Sweden by August 4<sup>th.</sup><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>That is about
.0006% of the 10.2 million population of Sweden.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>This compares unfavorably with the U.S. at 60,308 deaths and .0002%
of the population projected to die with COVID-19 by August 4<sup>th</sup>. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>But in the long run will the Swedes gain herd
immunity much faster than other countries and avoid any second or seasonal
relapse from the virus?<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Contrasted against Sweden is New Zealand where the
government has put a cordon around the small island of about 5 million.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Only 11 deaths have been recorded in New Zealand
and only about 1400 confirmed or probable cases.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>New Zealand will have to sustain this
isolation, with all of its economic repercussions, until well after it has
vaccinated its population and it opens its borders.<o:p></o:p></div>
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<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<u>Accurate Prevalence Data</u><o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
To understand the true risk that COVID-19 represents
requires accurate data.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The first
data point needed is the number of people that have or have had Covid-19 or have
antibodies indicating their immune systems have confronted the SARS-CoV-2
virus. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Scientific sampling for infection
and antibodies may be the best way to determine virus prevalence.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Researchers at Stanford University released a sampling study
this week titled, "COVID-19 Antibody Seroprevalence in Santa Clara County,
California."<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>That study tested
3,300 for antibodies and revealed 2.4 to 4.16 percent of the participants had
antibodies.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>This indicates the
prevalence in Santa Clara County is between 41,000 - 81,000 people - not the
1,000 the County was reporting on April 1. If as this study estimates the true
prevalence is "50-85-fold more than the number of confirmed cases" it
has tremendous implications for determining the true risk of COVID-19
morbidity.<o:p></o:p></div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
In a recent Boston Globe OpEd Harvard researchers said,<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>“In Massachusetts, a random sample of 5,000
residents out of the total population of nearly 7 million would be large enough
to determine the prevalence of COVID-19 infection within a margin of error of
1.5 percentage points.”<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
A robust scientific national sampling for COVID-19
disease and antibody reaction to the SARS-CoV-2 virus is needed.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<u>Defining COVID-19 Deaths</u><o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Virus prevalence is only one part of the equation in
determining COVID-19 risk.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The second
part is defining accurately what represents a COVID-19 death. We do not know that number now because there is still not adequate
refinement in describing cases of those who die and their associated demographics.<o:p></o:p></div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Dr. Deborah Birx said at the April 7 White House Corona Task
Force briefing, “So, I think, in this country, we've taken a very liberal
approach to mortality… - the intent is, right now, that … if someone dies with
COVID-19, we are counting that as a COVID-19 death.”<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
We are reporting deaths of people <u>WITH</u> COVID-19 not those that died <u>FROM</u>
COVID-19.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Some states have started estimating
and adding to their counts people who died before tracking began and were
suspected of dying from COVID-19.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>A few examples
to illustrate the distortion:<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: .5in;">
If a person testing positive for
COVID-19 is involved in an auto accident and
killed they will be recorded as a COVID-19 death. </div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: .5in;">
If a person testing positive
for COVID-19 was in the hospital for an organ transplant and died in the
operating room they would be recorded as a COVID-19 death.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: .5in;">
If a 95 year old man testing positive for
Covid-19 died while in hospice with metastasized cancer in his lungs, pancreas,
and liver he would be recorded as a COVID-19 death.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: .5in;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
There is a tremendous difference between dying “with” and dying
“from” or even “dying with complications that may have hastened near term
inevitable death from underlying comorbidities.”<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Much more refinement is needed to determine the true mortality of COVID-19.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<u>Anomalies of Impact</u><o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
There are major geographic COVID-19 anomalies to be
investigated.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Six states that combined
make up less than 20% of the national population represent 69% of the deaths
thus far. New York alone represents 39% of the nationwide deaths, New Jersey
12%, Michigan 7%, Massachusetts 5%, Louisiana 4%, and Illinois 4%.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
What is happening in these states that makes
them so different from other states?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Are
there variables at play such as comorbidities, population density, weather, preparedness,
policy choices, that make these states strikingly different from others?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Understanding those variables that contribute
to this extreme anomaly may prove essential to understanding risk far better
and help to develop better strategies going forward.<o:p></o:p></div>
<br />Liberty Takes Efforthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13398225334133635697noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8054521671768779399.post-12687636361099629582020-04-17T09:59:00.002-04:002020-04-19T12:53:57.542-04:00Relative percentages to understand state COVID-19 status<br />
<div class="MsoNormal">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjEhMDF-4NM-s03K0aL2XxqtnqqwIizzB7J8pYeiJiAZpIuT1GpntPEv44uxFLxshWFVNoTH2ctYiIOm4bMuGhevrEWBocUs1F2lA1xEmeoPkCf2hNp9vAB6DAYlSb1atkbZmr-vsM9tmE/s1600/Opening+America.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="200" data-original-width="400" height="100" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjEhMDF-4NM-s03K0aL2XxqtnqqwIizzB7J8pYeiJiAZpIuT1GpntPEv44uxFLxshWFVNoTH2ctYiIOm4bMuGhevrEWBocUs1F2lA1xEmeoPkCf2hNp9vAB6DAYlSb1atkbZmr-vsM9tmE/s200/Opening+America.jpg" width="200" /></a>President Donald Trump and the White House Corona Virus Task
Force released “<a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/openingamerica/" target="_blank">Opening Up America Again</a>” guidelines on April 16,
2020.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The guidelines provide “Proposed
State or Regional Gating Criteria” for proceeding to each of three phases of reduced
restrictions on economic and social activity.<br />
<br />
“Core State Preparedness Responsibilities” include robust
testing and contact tracing capability, adequate healthcare system capacity to
include a surge capability, and a plan to protect the health and safety of
critical workers, vulnerable populations (e.g. nursing homes), and other related
specific requirements.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
The guidelines use criteria for transitions through the
three phases based on data within a state or even county or city level, as the granularity of data
is now available to those levels.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>The guidelines do not set dates, but rely on states satisfy criteria to
transition through each phase called “Gating.”<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Beyond the underpinning Core State Preparedness Responsibilities a state
would make decisions about transitioning based on an observed decrease in day to
day confirmed cases and <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>positive tests
for the virus over a two week period.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
This necessary plan is adequate to begin the
process of transition in balancing the risk of economic collapse with public
health.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Twenty-two million Americans
have now lost their jobs as the result of the Covid-19 pandemic. <o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
I keep my own databases to analyze the risk of Covid-19. I
do this to satisfy my own curiosity and analytical bent, but I also feel that
there is a weakness in journalism today that forces me to do my own
analysis.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>I have observed an
overemphasis on reporting raw numbers to indicate risk and impact with an
emphasis on rounded thresholds (e.g. 1000, 10,000) that make for good headlines.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>This distorts impressions and understanding.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>I believe a better way to understand virus
risk and impact is through relative comparison of a state against other states
and the national average by calculating the percentage of a state’s residents
that have been tested, have tested positive, have died, and are projected to die with Covid-19.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
I set up download routines from databases that are reliable
and current.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The <a href="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/u/2/d/e/2PACX-1vRwAqp96T9sYYq2-i7Tj0pvTf6XVHjDSMIKBdZHXiCGGdNC0ypEU9NbngS8mxea55JuCFuua1MUeOj5/pubhtml#" target="_blank">COVID Tracking Project </a>hosted at The Atlantic has a data file
that I use to track specific numbers tested, hospitalized, and deaths.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/coronavirus-us-cases.html" target="_blank">New York Times</a> has a database<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>that tracks similar data, but has an excellent
graphic presentation showing the increase or decrease in cases and deaths in a
day over day comparison. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The <a href="https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america" target="_blank">University of Washington IHME</a><span id="goog_1512319426"></span><a href="https://www.blogger.com/"></a><span id="goog_1512319427"></span> database<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>provides model projections for hospital bed
and ventilator shortfalls and anticipated number of deaths through August 4<sup>th</sup>
by state.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Below are some tables I created that are sorted to show
different rankings by state and the national average.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>I offer these tables to my blog readers in
the hope that it will help them better understand the situation in their state and appreciate that all states are different.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"></span><br />
<a name='more'></a><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<u><b>Table 1 Data Sort:<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Percent of Population Tested<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></b></u></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<u><br /></u>
This table shows how aggressive and effective a state has been in delivering
testing. The sort is based on the % POP TESTED column.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span> For now this is the only available data point being reported on the extent of testing.<br />
<br />
Though there are calls for massive testing of a million per day or testing the entire population this may not be possible, necessary or desired. A better solution is scientific statistical sampling for infection and antibodies and aggressive contract tracing on those who demonstrate symptoms.<br />
<br />
In a recent Boston Globe OpEd Harvard researchers
said,<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>“In Massachusetts, a random sample
of 5,000 residents out of the total population of nearly 7 million would be
large enough to determine the prevalence of COVID-19 infection within a margin
of error of 1.5 percentage points.”<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>States could commission one of their premier universities to conduct
such a sampling.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>There is still no reliable data on what
percentage of the population is or were infected.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Scientific sampling for infection and antibodies
may be the best solution.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhnD47bkphRkjQO4pbtIubrUQJQqQW_kgUeF9EkaBhJQMq4lz2g4cy0n31aBasemizV6sgp772yphpMxNGdnTt_B-FnjZIl_795WAhBIxXmpjjHqmuTGhJN-ZWfcpmXitf6mdUKKaT_ZUk/s1600/Table1+Percentage+of+Population+Tested.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1123" data-original-width="871" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhnD47bkphRkjQO4pbtIubrUQJQqQW_kgUeF9EkaBhJQMq4lz2g4cy0n31aBasemizV6sgp772yphpMxNGdnTt_B-FnjZIl_795WAhBIxXmpjjHqmuTGhJN-ZWfcpmXitf6mdUKKaT_ZUk/s640/Table1+Percentage+of+Population+Tested.jpg" width="496" /></a></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<u><b>Table 2 Data Sort:
Percent of Population Tested
Positive</b></u></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<u><br /></u></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
This table shows the percentage of the population that tested positive based on
the % POP POSITIVE column. There is an obvious relationship here with the
percent of the population that has been tested.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Nationally there have been nearly 3.5
million tests with over 600 thousand testing positive.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>About 20% of those tested are positive.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>But this is a distorted sample because testing
has been restricted to sick and vulnerable populations. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><br />
<br />
Testing availability is increasing and the 3.5
million will increase significantly over the next few weeks but it still may not be adequate to provide a true understanding of infection extent.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Again,
scientific sampling for both infection and anti-bodies is a better solution
to understand the extent of the spread within the population and its true morbidity.<o:p></o:p><br />
<br />
Researchers at Stanford University released a sampling study this week titled, "<a href="https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.14.20062463v1" target="_blank">COVID-19 Antibody Seroprevalence in Santa Clara County, California</a>." That study tested 3,300 for antibodies and found that revealed 2.4 to 4.16 percent of the participants had antibodies. This indicates the prevalence in the County is between 41,000 - 81,000 people - not the 1,000 the County was reporting on April 1.<br />
<br />
If as this study estimates the true prevalence is "50-85-fold more than the number of confirmed cases" it has tremendous implications for determining the true risk of Covid-19 morbidity. </div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
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<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<u><b>Table 3 Data Sort:
Percent of Population Deaths</b></u></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<u><br /></u></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
This table shows the percentage of the population that has died <u>WITH</u>
Covid-19 using the % POP DEATHS column.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Even this statistic is ambiguous.
I say “WITH” because that is what we really know from the reporting data.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><br />
<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"><br /></span>
Dr. Birx stated at the April 7
White House Corona Task Force briefing, “So, I think, in this country, we've
taken a very liberal approach to mortality…There are other countries that if
you had a pre-existing condition and let's say the virus caused you to go to
the ICU and then have a heart or kidney problem - some countries are recording
that as a heart issue or a kidney issue and not a COVID-19 death. Right now,
we're still recording it, …- the intent is, right now, that those - if someone
dies with COVID-19, we are counting that as a COVID-19 death.”<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Dr. Birx is describing a system of recording under which we
only really know that people are dying “with” Covid-19. The media is reporting it
as dying “of Covid-19” or “from Covid-19.”<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>More precise reporting is essential. <o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
If a person testing positive<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>for Covid-19 (prior to or after an autopsy) is involved in an auto
accident and killed they will be recorded as a Covid-19 death.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
If a person testing positive for Covid-19 was in the
hospital for an organ transplant and died in the operating room they would be
recorded as a Covid-19 death.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
If a 95 year old man in a nursing home in the final days of
his life dying from metastasized cancer in his lungs, pancreas, and liver
tested positive for Covid-19 <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>he would be
recorded as a Covid-19 death.<o:p></o:p><br />
<br />
Some states and localities are beginning to report deaths that were not previously counted. New York City reported an additional 3,700 victims this week that are assessed as Covid-19 deaths without testing of these cases. It is important that we guard against over-counting as much as under-counting. A great deal more rigor, scrutiny and clarity is needed to
understand Covid-19 mortality.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<o:p></o:p><br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjS0V86e70rqqzkfeZSadvMPEvrnNsA_1KMX8Ap9oDpxx9-Eu0LEhGPrDsB7IxsxOpVjsjLEMzezo8Dh876heVPE22l-79PKOPlFcitkhjFpr2stkprxe-xt7P-tVWwfbNMA5olhSYlTFg/s1600/Table+3+Percentage+of+Population+Deaths.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1144" data-original-width="871" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjS0V86e70rqqzkfeZSadvMPEvrnNsA_1KMX8Ap9oDpxx9-Eu0LEhGPrDsB7IxsxOpVjsjLEMzezo8Dh876heVPE22l-79PKOPlFcitkhjFpr2stkprxe-xt7P-tVWwfbNMA5olhSYlTFg/s640/Table+3+Percentage+of+Population+Deaths.jpg" width="486" /></a></div>
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<u><b>Table 4 Data Sort:
Percent of Population Projected to Die by August 4, 2020</b></u></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
This table is the percentage of the population projected to die by August 4,
2020 according to the <a href="https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america" target="_blank">University of Washington, Institute for Health Metricsand Evaluation (IMHE)</a> projection model.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>This model has been prominent in reporting.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>It is a model - not a fact.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>I am writing another blog post on the
important topic of reliance on models to assess risk.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>They are a tool in helping to understand any
issue, but too often they are reported as fact by the media and usually with
only the worst case scenario reported.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>There is tremendous uncertainty in models and we need to be skeptical.<o:p></o:p><br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
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<br />
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<u><b>Table 5 Data Sort:<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Alphabetical A-Z by State</b></u><br />
<br />
This table is a simple alphabetical sort to allow quick lookup of one’s state.<o:p></o:p><br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
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<br /></div>
<br />Liberty Takes Efforthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13398225334133635697noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8054521671768779399.post-49577525267646518062020-04-08T13:41:00.004-04:002020-04-30T06:42:51.282-04:00We need an exit strategy – now!<br />
<div class="MsoNormal">
Data indicates the U.S. is achieving the goal it set out to
accomplish.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The national objective was as
follows: <o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b><br /></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b>The United States’ immediate and primary objective in
response to the COVID-19 pandemic is to compress the peak of infections
(commonly called “Flattening the Curve”) in order to avoid denying critical
care to the afflicted as a result of insufficient hospital staffing, hospital beds,
Intensive Care Unit (ICU) beds, and ventilators. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Social distancing is the primary strategy to
achieve this objective.<o:p></o:p></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Data tracking indicates the curve of COVID-19 illness is
flattening in many countries of Europe and in the United States.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>In the U.S., hospital beds, ICU beds, and ventilator
capacity are meeting need and improving as the number of patients requiring these
services is declining and options for treatment expand. Production of personal
protective equipment and ventilators is increasing to meet need.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Care capacity to treat infected patients is
increasing as hospitals reallocate resources, old hospitals and other spaces
are converted to active service, field hospitals are opened, and hospital ships
are deployed.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
The U.S. objective stated above assumed a very high risk that
healthcare capacity would be exceeded responding to the SARS-CoV-2 virus that
causes Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19).<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Models indicated the virus would spread wider and faster than other
viruses, its symptoms would be more debilitating, and it would be more deadly
than other viruses.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The models were
just that – MODELS.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"></span>Post-COVID-19 research
and analysis will determine how accurate those predictive models were.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>For now, gratitude is in order that the virus
impact is less severe than was originally predicted.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Whether that results from our social
distancing strategy, or the virus is just not as vicious as predicted, or
seasonal weather change is having the same impact on SARS-2 as it does on many
other viruses is fodder for another day.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>For now, cautious victory can be declared, and cautious and prepared gradual
rescinding of many social distancing restrictions can begin.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Maintaining social distancing to the extent it is currently in
practice can cause tremendous social harm. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The “Disaster Distress Helpline” at the
Substance Abuse and Mental Health Services Administration last month saw
call volume increase 9 times over March 2019 and officials are warning of a national
mental health crisis.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The National
Suicide Prevention Lifeline set a record last month for call volume.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Those saved and sustained by addiction
programs such as AA and NA are at greater risk of relapse despite attempts to
move support online.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The United Nations
this past weekend called for “urgent action to combat the worldwide surge in
domestic violence.”<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br />
<a name='more'></a><br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjRK92-WUey1KqWR0ds4SFesUC4W8jKIK84el0OIEONuNkZQwLHZJQ3QOjXkA8xanbkwkfDcnq5jG7YRa5PUbx1PO3xu4-elHvLU1vOQNSHRJCUyzVriHYRFyIW7yCfozqKZG6cyandMY0/s1600/Mom+Great+Depression.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="640" data-original-width="492" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjRK92-WUey1KqWR0ds4SFesUC4W8jKIK84el0OIEONuNkZQwLHZJQ3QOjXkA8xanbkwkfDcnq5jG7YRa5PUbx1PO3xu4-elHvLU1vOQNSHRJCUyzVriHYRFyIW7yCfozqKZG6cyandMY0/s320/Mom+Great+Depression.jpg" width="246" /></a>The social distancing strategy is negatively impacting U.S.
economic activity.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Some estimates
indicate up to $10 trillion of $20 trillion in U.S. annual economic
activity could be lost.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>This suppression
of economic activity cannot be sustained without damaging families economically
and creating dangerous social ills.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The
longer the suppression continues the greater the potential damage and more
difficult the recovery.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Vulnerable low wage hourly earners without benefits will
suffer the most economically.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> The National Multifamily Housing Council reports only 69% of tenants paid any rent between April 1-5 as compared to 82% the previous year. </span>Small businesses
will struggle to survive.<br />
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
The Department of Labor reported 4/3/2020 the unemployment
rate rose to 4.4% from 3.5% in March.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>An
additional 1.7 million lost their jobs.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>The Labor Force Participation Rate, a measure of the percentage of
Americans 16 and older who are working or looking for work, sank to 62.7 from
63.4.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> On April 4 Labor reported 6.6 million jobless claims had been submitted in the past week with 16.8 million filings over a three week period - yet another very concerning historical record.</span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"></span><br />
<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
The U.S. economy is fast approaching 20 million job losses through April as predicted by economists. Many states have more stringent rules in
effect – in some cases into June.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Goldman Sachs estimates the unemployment rate will rise to 15% and GDP
drop 9% in the first quarter and an additional 34% in the second quarter. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>James Bullard, President of the Federal
Reserve Bank of St. Louis, said the unemployment rate could reach 30% and GDP
drop 50%. <o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
These predictions are not inevitable.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Change in policy can diminish the impact and
duration of these very scary numbers just as social distancing may have changed
the course of COVID-19.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
A gradual reduction of social distancing must begin – soon.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>This does not mean all restrictions lifted
immediately on a given date. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>As Dr.
Anthony Fauci recently said, “this isn’t like a light switch on and off…It’s a
gradual pulling back on certain of the restrictions to try and get society a
bit back to normal.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
There must be built into any plan the ability to change
direction and delay dates of implementation. Military planners call this maneuver space. A gradual lifting of restrictions
can reflect regional differences of COVID-19 status.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
One way to structure reduced social distancing is by industry as defined by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>There could be a progression of implementation across industries.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Dates here are nominal for purposes of demonstrating
one possible time progression example:<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
</div>
<ul>
<li>April 20:<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Health
Services, Natural Resources and Mining, Construction, Manufacturing, Trade Transportation and Utilities (much in these sectors remains operational already)</li>
<li>
April 27: <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Information, Financial,
Professional and Business Services (again, much in this category remains
operational through work at home)</li>
<li>
May 04:<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Retail Trade (Does not include Leisure and Hospitality
and Travel)</li>
<li>
May 11:<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Education Services (K-12 only)</li>
</ul>
<o:p></o:p><br />
<div class="MsoNormal">
Leisure, Hospitality and Travel will require the greatest caution
and hence the most detailed consideration. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Some leisure, such as outdoor park and trail
enjoyment can be opened almost immediately with common sense planning.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Places
of social gathering in large numbers may take a few to several months before
restrictions are fully lifted. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Large
social gatherings must also be considered in time dimension.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>There are large social gatherings that take
place in one space of time, such as a sporting or entertainment events. Another
example would be the expected return of the churn of restaurants and bars.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Transitioning will not be easy.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The U.S. population is bombarded daily with headlines
that are frightening.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>We have also
become a risk averse nation that thinks all risk can be eliminated.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>It cannot.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>It will be difficult to step forward in uncertainty and fear.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Psychological barriers may be the most
difficult to overcome.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Politicians may exercise excess caution.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>They do not want to be wrong.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>They do not want to be seen as making a mistake.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>They will need encouragement and courage to
exercise leadership in this transition.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Pointing fingers of blame for past responses and actions based on imperfect information
is folly.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Better to begin a transition
from social distancing and conduct a stem-to-stern rigorous analysis of the COVID-19
pandemic to build resilience and strength to fight the next battle.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>There will be other viruses/infections and
possibly worse.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>We cannot shut down our
economy every time a model says a virus could be very bad.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Many current personal practices of hygiene and contact
should be encouraged to continue.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>For
example: hand washing and cleaning surfaces; avoiding handshaking; avoiding
casual hugging of friends and acquaintances; and avoiding closed spaces to
avoid potential dense virus presence. (Go outside as often as possible and open
windows in the home and office whenever possible as the weather improves!)<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<a href="https://www.blogger.com/u/6/null" name="_Hlk37228808">Cautious optimism is warranted, but
there will be much more suffering and additional death.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Each of those cases is a personal tragedy for
families.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>There can be no diminishing the agonizing loss many have and will suffer.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The U.S. must continue to take all necessary
action to restrict virus spread and mitigate effects, but the COVID-19 risk
must be balanced against the severe decrease in economic activity and social
engagement that have their own major risks.<o:p></o:p></a></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<a href="https://www.blogger.com/u/6/null" name="_Hlk37228808"><br /></a></div>
<span style="mso-bookmark: _Hlk37228808;"></span>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal">
Mission creep is a tendency we must avoid.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Our objective was never to eliminate the virus.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Our objective was never to eliminate infections.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Our objective was never to eliminate all
risk.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>None are possible.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
A new offensive strategy against the virus may be necessary.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>We must accept that all risk cannot be
eliminated and focus on managing and mitigating risk and building public health
capacity. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Rather than broad public
restrictions on movement and gathering we could shift to a more targeted
offensive strategy against spread with increased testing, sampling, targeted surveillance, and tracing. Vulnerable populations such as elder care facilities and poor communities with populations traditional suffering from higher levels of underlying disease would receive increased focus .<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
This is going to be hard. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>But we must do it.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The first step is to make a plan of
transition.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>It must reflect true risk as
we know it now, not at as it was predicted in early models and provide a timeline
for transition.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Hopefully, we will begin
that process very soon and united.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></div>
<br />Liberty Takes Efforthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13398225334133635697noreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8054521671768779399.post-39646572284915884902020-04-04T09:29:00.001-04:002020-04-19T12:53:07.851-04:00Nursing homes need greater focus in COVID-19 battleIt is clear that age is a major factor in COVID-19 morbidity. It is clear that underlying health status is a major factor in COVID-19 morbidity. It appears the place one resides (SETTING) is also a major factor. Specifically, reporting indicates nursing homes and other elder care facilities are the major setting source for COVID-19 outbreaks leading to death. Data collection and reporting must increase immediately to identify and report the setting in which COVID-19 is contracted and immediate policy implemented to prevent and mitigate vulnerability in the short term. In the long term, the nation must dramatically change and improve residential elder care or rethink the current model.<br />
<br />
There are about fifteen thousand nursing homes with nearly 2 million licensed beds in the United States. These facilities "appear" a hotbed for COVID-19 deaths. “Appear” because there is no available repository of data to validate this hypothesis. The Centers for Disease Control (CDC) does not release the names of nursing homes or the number of residents who have contracted COVID-19 when outbreaks occur - but it should. There is some media and state reporting from which one can extrapolate the extent and severity of the problem.<br />
<br />
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjNqpheogBfC-CObkUWV2lElWlZPpNdz9CWZthi6wdZwSZ5Z6UCwUjMwdIlxq41Ycui5st60g7JRHrKluKTatJMRGHyM15w_Mx6vTOEIy5KH_a0PKNcF4ruKHFBgkePCcD6rKZlrzx4VJ4/s1600/soldiershomeholyoke.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="291" data-original-width="517" height="180" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjNqpheogBfC-CObkUWV2lElWlZPpNdz9CWZthi6wdZwSZ5Z6UCwUjMwdIlxq41Ycui5st60g7JRHrKluKTatJMRGHyM15w_Mx6vTOEIy5KH_a0PKNcF4ruKHFBgkePCcD6rKZlrzx4VJ4/s320/soldiershomeholyoke.jpg" width="320" /></a>The first such case occurred at the Life Care Center of Kirkland in King County, Washington where 81 residents, 34 staff members, and 14 visitors contracted COVID-19. Of these cases, 23 patients and visitors died. A more recent example is unfurling at the Commonwealth of Massachusetts’ state run Soldier’s Home in Holyoke, MA where 21 have thus far died.<br />
<br />
At least 400 nursing homes across the country have COVID-19 outbreaks. The number is increasing daily. No doubt, there will be a correlation between this growth and a climbing number of deaths reported from COVID-19.<br />
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Elders over the age of 65 with underlying disease or immune suppression are disproportionately vulnerable to COVID-19. But those in long term care settings are far more vulnerable because of the lack of effective infection prevention, mitigation, and control at these facilities. Their presence in these facilities is the proximate cause in many of their deaths, not their age or underlying health.<br />
<br />
There is an abundance of research that proves long-term care facilities are contaminated with Methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA), Methicillin-sensitive Staphylococcus aureus (MSSA), Clostridium difficile (C-Dif) and other communicable disease sources. Regulations to control communicable disease in these facilities are inadequate and the federal government, which pays for at least 65% of long term care patients through Medicaid, is conflicted between providing care and the cost of paying for it.<br />
<br />
These problems of communicable disease extend outside the long-term care facilities. Many of these facilities, in the name of efficiency, have hospice, long term care, and rehabilitation patients commingled in the facility sharing rooms, equipment and staff. There is frequent cycling back and forth to hospitals in ambulances that go out into the community. These problems are known. Unfortunately, because the problem is difficult and costly to address those directly involved in providing or managing care shrug their shoulders in reluctant acceptance.<br />
<br />
COVID-19 is not the last pandemic. In a world where travel is abundant and dense urbanization inevitable there will be more and worse such pandemics.<br />
<br />
Now is the time for rigorous examination of the lack of resilience in much of our medical treatment system, but particularly in long term care facilities. In the name of “efficiency” we have accepted patient placement in high risk facilities where communicable diseases are tolerated as a part of doing business. Treatment of underlying diseases, general health, and comfort are impaired by these communicable diseases. Often they hasten death, just as COVID-19 is hastening, if not causing death now. Adding insult to injury many patients are dying alone - their families unable to be with them.<br />
<br />
It is largely in the name of efficiency that this situation exists. Rooms are shared. Staffing is minimized. Hospitals must discharge as quickly as possible to rehab. We prize efficiency in business and government. But resilience is just as important. We have ignored that too long. We can do a lot better and we must.<br />
<div>
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Liberty Takes Efforthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13398225334133635697noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8054521671768779399.post-62205409525016831652020-02-06T19:31:00.001-05:002020-04-04T09:32:02.601-04:00A Trump vs Sanders contest may be needed<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjnHFlGAZNuizc7qyxEKCNC_b130AGz7Vga9AYdY-4XJRO3rO0Y2JQKQaqu1tLCq_j88vSXlJ71OCdoQ-72Yeq4U5XMZFZaWbGZ4YZ-fZmHUWL7kDORnd10GzrBTgl8zUYeCauUeHJs-dc/s1600/TrumpSanders.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="200" data-original-width="316" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjnHFlGAZNuizc7qyxEKCNC_b130AGz7Vga9AYdY-4XJRO3rO0Y2JQKQaqu1tLCq_j88vSXlJ71OCdoQ-72Yeq4U5XMZFZaWbGZ4YZ-fZmHUWL7kDORnd10GzrBTgl8zUYeCauUeHJs-dc/s1600/TrumpSanders.jpg" /></a></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
A general election contest may be necessary between President Donald Trump and
Senator Bernie Sanders in 2020.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The United States is going through a
tumultuous rejection and realignment of its political culture that may well
climax with the 2020 presidential election.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Pitting the two non-party
populist candidates with opposing political philosophies in a head-to-head
contest will break the two major political parties and determine if the
political center of American culture will be reset much further left or remain
a conservative right majority.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The fight
is a necessary one to conclude a rejection of two parties that are more similar
than not in creating division and failing to address the interests of the American
people.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br />
<a name='more'></a><br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
The body politic is in a state of tension and stress.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The level of conflict, division, and discord
is felt physically by many as stress levels increase watching, listening to, or
reading about politics.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Political
strategies of identity and division have infused hate in many toward those with
whom they disagree politically but whom they otherwise have much in common.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Hate casts a long shadow of poor judgement
and error.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>This tension must break and
the 2020 election may be the zenith after which a reformation of parties
occurs - the calm after the storm of disruption.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
The result of the 2020 election, if accompanied by Congressional
control, will discern the country's direction.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>A judgement will have been made by the people
on just how far left the body politic has moved after decades of progressive
efforts to move political culture leftward through courts and dominance in
education, the news media, and entertainment. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Gallup polls over nearly 30 years show that 35%
of the country consistently identifies as conservative.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Those who declare themselves liberal has increased
in the same time from 17 to 26%, drawing down moderates from 43% to 25%.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Has the center changed from middle right to
middle left?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The 2020 election will tell
us if a clear choice is presented.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Senator Bernie Sanders (alternatively Elizabeth Warren) is
the most suited among the current Democratic candidates to bring the underlying
conflict to a head.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Sanders is not the
antithesis to Trump’s disruption.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>He is the amplification of it.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Trump sought conservative
populist disruption in 2016.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Sanders
seeks progressive populist revolution.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Both view the two parties as “Tweedledee and Tweedledum.” <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Both never believed in a million years they
could become president.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>One now is president
and the other now believes he is at the cusp of power.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
These two flawed and improbable presidential candidates
result from a divisive two-party system that is long overdue for major
change.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>There have been other periods of
such change and there are similarities from the 1800's.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
The Democratic and Republican Parties have dominated the
political process of the United States for over 160 years.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Two-party dominance over such a long period
has resulted in a political system unresponsive to the needs, concerns, or
desires of most citizens.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Despite the
warnings of George Washington and others to avoid factions, the success of the
Democratic and Republican Parties is now largely dependent upon the creation of
factions and the exploitation of division.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
The Democratic and Republican duopoly is not mandated by the
Constitution.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>These two parties can be
replaced by two others – or three, or four.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>They can keep their names and be completely remolded. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>If both do not wake up and begin to focus on
solving the problems of citizens of the United States in a manner acceptable to
a broad consensus majority - they will be replaced. <o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
The republic has seen changes in parties over its
history.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>We began with no parties.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>As the new republic matured there became two
dominant points of view.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>One called for
a strong federal government and the dominance of an elite class.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Alexander Hamilton and his Federalist Party
held that view.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Thomas Jefferson’s
anti-federalists (later Democratic-Republicans) looked more to an agrarian
economy, the wisdom of the common voter, and state (as opposed to federal)
dominance.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
We have not changed all that much from that time.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The elitist centralized power of Hamilton’s
Federalists and Jefferson’s common man Democratic-Republicans ring a little to
the present-day Sanders/Socialist and Trump/Capitalist debate.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
The rise of Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders began in the
presidential election of 2016. Both parties and the press were surprised by
their rise.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Two unlikely outsiders at
seemingly opposite ends of the political spectrum were ascendant and drew more
enthusiasm by far than any of the other candidates.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Trump and Sanders tapped into public sentiment that rejects
the economic and political status quo.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Populists, they garnered the support of a large portion of the
electorate that is willing to look for answers far outside the political class
of both parties.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Sanders was thwarted by
the Democratic Party and may well get his chance this year in a battle delayed.
<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
The current tumultuous times have many historical
similarities.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>For example, the 1828
election of Andrew Jackson over John Quincy Adams was a populist revolt that
some authors have compared to the 2016 election.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Many have compared Trump to Jackson in his
fearless defense of those who support him and his aggressive attacks upon his
opponents.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Geographically it was also
similar in that it was the northeast vs the rest of the states (add the West
Coast in the present).<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>There was even a
dynastic similarity with the rejection of the New England Adams family harking
to the rejection of Bush/Clinton dynasties in 2016.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
The failure of the Democratic and Republican Parties to
recognize the undercurrent of populist revolt is also reminiscent of the period
1852-1856 when establishment elites, unable to see beyond their personal
interests and ideological bents were unable or unwilling to resolve the
dominant issue of concern to the population - slavery.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>They were blind to the desire of the nation
to deal with and conclude the issue.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The
present discontent is not focused on a single issue as grave as slavery, nor is
the tumult likely to be as apocalyptic as the Civil War, but political and
cultural conflict rise and fall with time as a natural part of our political
process.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>It is part of our political
DNA and we need to understand it rather than fear it. <o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Donald Trump is not the cause of our political divide.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>He and Bernie Sanders are symptoms reflecting
the maturation of rumbling conflict that began in the 1960's with the rejection
of institutions of government and culture.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>The tension has been building and it has now come to a head.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Regardless of a Trump or Sanders victory the Republican and
Democratic Parties are in for a rough ride.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>The parties may be realigned, restructured, or even replaced such as was
seen at several points in our history.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
If Sanders were to win, particularly if his election has
coat tails to bring the Senate and House under Democratic control, the party
will move leftward - expect Representative Alexandria Ocasio Cortez to be
elected Speaker of the House of Representatives.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The Democratic Party will be recast quickly
by the far left of the party as it takes control.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Moderates within the party will move leftward
or leave to form a new party.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The
Republican Party will splinter in its failure.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
If President Trump is reelected it will indicate the nation
at its core has not changed much in its leanings.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The Republican Party will no longer be a “progressive
just slower” brother to the Democratic Party.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>President
Trump’s agenda will move full force in an America first direction.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The
Democratic Party will explode with the loss.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>A splintering with the ascendance of a Democratic-Socialist opposition
party may occur.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Regardless of who wins the election nearly half of the
population will be disappointed because the Democratic and Republican Parties
have successfully divided the electorate into factions. Violence may well occur.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Even the supporters of the winner will be
discontent because the rancor will continue for a time.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>But the worst may be over between
2020-2024 and there may be a more stable and harmonious outcome after the 2024
and 2030 elections. <o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Let’s hope so.<o:p></o:p></div>
<br />Liberty Takes Efforthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13398225334133635697noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8054521671768779399.post-34016708267529264452020-01-01T19:24:00.002-05:002020-02-06T18:54:26.822-05:00Let’s rethink nuclear power Nuclear power will play an essential role in the energy future of the United States and the world. There is an increasing recognition by scientists, entrepreneurs, and policy makers that it offers unique characteristics that can provide an abundant, safe, and clean energy source indefinitely. Despite a decline in the existing nuclear power industry, a renaissance is underway in new safe nuclear reactor designs and technologies to fuel the next century, while rapid advances in fusion power research portend a revolution to begin within the next two or three decades in the nuclear industry. Now is a pivotal time for leadership, a national focus, the allocation of resources, and a revamping of federal and state regulatory models to accelerate development that will transform the energy portfolio of the U.S. and the world.<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhcvBPqbhGBH6ZfCMcC7VSMppMRaFSbp-BhqC82yGUAK5hZXfbwFuiUKVXcFv-9ai0imPugScJKpVbo6VO61Ro3KVLlSTwfPG5qMlQfzwI9die4ZWAvnytWU89sdxv-Vz-aHypxgUweWxM/s1600/Doe+Fusion+Pic.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="324" data-original-width="576" height="225" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhcvBPqbhGBH6ZfCMcC7VSMppMRaFSbp-BhqC82yGUAK5hZXfbwFuiUKVXcFv-9ai0imPugScJKpVbo6VO61Ro3KVLlSTwfPG5qMlQfzwI9die4ZWAvnytWU89sdxv-Vz-aHypxgUweWxM/s400/Doe+Fusion+Pic.jpg" width="400" /></a></div>
<br />
Many people in the United States reject nuclear power based on fear. It is time to face that fear and reconsider nuclear power as a primary contributor to the nation’s energy portfolio. Now is the time to reassess because there is both vulnerability and opportunity looming. The vulnerability - existing nuclear power infrastructure is old and presently unprofitable – causing decline in a major component of our nation’s energy portfolio. The opportunity - there is a tremendous amount of innovation taking place around modern, safe, and small fission nuclear power design that is very promising. In addition, progress in fusion research is real and substantial, and accelerating.<br />
<br />
<a name='more'></a><br /><br />
Energy is a critical component of our economic prosperity, national security, and environmental quality. It is the essential element to the long-term survival and success of humans and the proliferation of intelligent life throughout the galaxy and universe.<br />
<br />
Energy demand is increasing every year. Think of the electric demand of one sector alone – transportation. The auto and truck industry are moving to electric vehicles. Only a few percent of vehicles currently in production are all electric. However, the auto industry is projecting a majority of vehicles will be electric by 2050. What would the impact be on the power grid if half of the 250 million vehicles currently on the road were electric? This one element of energy consumption demands coherent policy in power generation. <a href="http://www.libertytakeseffort.com/2019/08/electric-autonomous-advertisement-pods.html" target="_blank">See a recent related blog post on this topic.</a><br />
<br />
Many believe Climate Change to be an existential threat to the world that requires the elimination of carbon-based energy consumption. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s (IPCC) scientists say that to keep temperature from increasing above 1.5C/2.7F will require a carbon neutral world by 2050. This is an immense goal that is not achievable without nuclear power. To achieve the IPCC’s goal will require more nuclear power at a time when the industry is in decline. <br />
The purpose of this post is not to engage in a debate about Climate Change. (I wrote a <a href="http://www.libertytakeseffort.com/2014/08/climate-change-thoughts.html" target="_blank">blog post on Climate Change</a> in 2014 if you are interested in that topic.)<br />
<br />
But we cannot achieve anything if we are at each other’s throats. We have focused too much on debating whether there is or is not Climate Change, or whether or not man is contributing to it, or whether or not we can do anything about it. A solid energy policy that looks to revolutionize global energy supply through nuclear power will secure energy and economic abundance for the future. That is good for everyone and worthy of pursuit. A byproduct of such an effort would accomplish the goals of those concerned about Climate Change. It is a win-win for all regardless of who is right or wrong about Climate Change.<br />
<br />
Fossil fuels remain the largest component of U.S. energy consumption, by far, at 80%. Fossil fuels are finite and harmful to the environment. They are not the future. Renewables (e.g. Hyrdo, Wind, Solar, Geothermal, BioMass, Wood, etc.) compose 11% of U.S. energy consumption. Many advocate investment in renewables to replace our reliance on carbon fossil fuels. H.Res.109 - Recognizing the duty of the Federal Government to create a Green New Deal is a proposal of the Democratic Party that does not even mention nuclear power. The Green Party Green New Deal is hostile to it calling for its total elimination. These positions are misguided.<br />
<br />
Renewables alone cannot supplant fossil fuels. They have high cost and some can be unreliable (e.g. wind and solar). Mining of minerals for manufacturing and storage (e.g. solar panels and batteries), and controversial transmission issues from remote areas, diminish their efficacy. They will play a part, but they are inadequate to the task. Our future is more promising if we refocus on the atom to provide safe, clean, and abundant energy at reasonable cost in place of finite carbon intensive fossil fuels. Renewables will increase as a share of the energy portfolio, but nuclear must dominate in the future.<br />
<br />
Bill Gates is an amazing individual powerfully combining human genius, good will, scientific rigor, business acumen, and amassed capital to improve the world. He and his wife Melinda have institutionalized this outlook in their <a href="https://www.gatesfoundation.org/" target="_blank">Gates Foundation</a>, and recruited over 200 billionaires through the <a href="https://givingpledge.org/About.aspx" target="_blank">Giving Pledge</a>, to commit their wealth to a common purpose of philanthropy.<br />
<br />
Regarding energy, Gates is motivated by concerns about Climate Change. The Netflix documentary, “<a href="https://www.netflix.com/title/80184771" target="_blank">Inside Bill's Brain: Decoding Bill Gates</a>,” contains a segment on Gates’ efforts to address Climate Change. Gates states quite clearly that those who desire a carbon-free environment are mistaken if they believe that it can be achieved without nuclear power. He is joined by a growing chorus of scientists and policy-makers agreeing that goals to reduce carbon output to levels declared acceptable will require at least a doubling of nuclear power output before 2050.<br />
<br />
Our existing nuclear industry is in decline - not expanding – and cannot meet such a goal with its 50 year old designs and technology.<br />
<br />
There are currently 58 commercially operating nuclear power plants with 96 nuclear reactors in 29 U.S. states producing 20 percent of U.S. electric power. The average age of nuclear power plants in operation is about 40 years. Thirty-eight reactors were shut down in past decades. Another ten may be shut down in the coming decade. Only two are under construction and two more planned to begin construction in 2023.<br />
<br />
The original concerns about nuclear safety and health in the 1960's were justified. Limited experience with nuclear chemistry and technology led, in the industry’s early days, to mistakes and accidents. A rush to expand nuclear power was short sighted and denied its complexity and risks. <br />
<br />
Anti-nuclear advocates protested placement of nuclear reactors in places like San Francisco’s Bodega Bay and Malibu – rightfully so. The anti-nuclear movement ultimately resisted all nuclear power and used fear as a tool to basically shut down the industry’s development in the 1970's. Solidifying their efforts was the largest nuclear accident in the U.S. - a partial meltdown and limited radioactive release at Pennsylvania’s Three Mile Island in 1979.<br />
<br />
Three Mile Island was a media extravaganza that cemented the fear of nuclear power in the U.S. After Three Mile Island not a single new nuclear plant permit was approved between 1979-2012. Not a single person died from the partial meltdown. The containment vessel worked as designed to prevent release of large amounts of radioactivity. In fact, the only nuclear incident in the world that resulted in human deaths from radiation was at Chernobyl, USSR. In the U.S. there has never been a death attributable to a radiation incident at a nuclear power plant – never.<br />
<br />
Fear can be a powerful force and often overrules reason. It is not unlike a fear of flying when in fact flying in an airplane is safer than driving in a car. Fourteen states have adopted significant restrictions on the construction of new nuclear plants. Massachusetts recently shut down its only remaining nuclear power plant despite consuming over 12 times the amount of energy it produces. California will shut down its last nuclear power plant in 2024.<br />
<br />
In addition to the regulatory pressures on the nuclear power industry the past decade’s hydraulic fracking revolution has completely transformed U.S. energy supply and production. An abundance of cheap natural gas for power plants has dramatically impacted the profitability of the nuclear energy industry.<br />
<br />
Given all of this bad news for the traditional nuclear power industry over the past 40 years why would we want to make a major trans-formative investment in nuclear power now? Because there is an awakening occurring – largely driven by private investment – that tells us a renaissance of fission nuclear power is at hand and a revolution in fusion nuclear power will likely follow.<br />
<br />
Once again, Bill Gates provides good insight. He points out that the nuclear power plants we have relied on are all based on antiquated design models from the 1950's and 1960's. Gates contends that our knowledge base and technological capacity have grown exponentially over that time and the time has come to develop more modern plant designs that are clean and safe. He is putting his money where his mouth is and making progress.<br />
<br />
In 2006, Gates and like-minded innovators created a new company, <a href="https://terrapower.com/" target="_blank">Terra Power</a>, for the purpose of advancing nuclear technologies. Since then they have launched research and development into several promising technologies to include Traveling Wave Reactors (TWR) and Molten Chloride Fast Reactors (MCFR). Both technologies show promise. Terra Power has a cooperation agreement with China National Nuclear Corporation to develop the TWR, but plans to build prototype reactors in China were upended by the U.S. and China trade dispute.<br />
<br />
Gates chose to partner with China for several likely reasons. First, Gates does not look at his work in a nationalistic way. He views his mission as global and hopes to create systems that are open and can be used across the globe to better the human condition and battle Climate Change. More practically, he likely views the hostile permitting and regulatory environment in the United States as a hindrance to his timeline. China also has a rapidly growing demand for electricity and a long-term strategic plan for energy that is very supportive of development. <br />
<br />
Gates is not alone. There is a tremendous amount of research, development and investment in an array of nuclear technologies from reactors to waste reprocessing. <a href="https://www.terrestrialenergy.com/" target="_blank">Terrestrial Energy</a> expects to have a modular molten salt reactor online in the 2020s.<br />
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Modularity and smaller size are a consistent theme for a number of reasons. NuScale Power is a modular project of Idaho Falls Power that will build small scale reactors that are self-contained in modules that do not have the risks of large plants such as Fukushima. Smaller plants can also be deployed closer to dense population areas that consume the energy. Modularity allows for construction in a contained environment rather than on site – improving quality and safety. Both of these concepts reduce the need for transmission lines that blot sensitive natural areas and reduce the tremendous loss of energy from transmission over long distances.<br />
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The renaissance described here is about using fission more safely and effectively through improved modern designs. This renaissance in fission is essential to our short and mid term energy needs. For the longer view there is also a revolution underway in fusion.<br />
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<i>First, for the non-scientific, some very basic definitions. The nuclear power developed in the past seven decades is based on FISSION. Fission is the breaking down of a heavy atom into smaller atoms. The process creates heat that is transformed through steam into electricity. FUSION is the joining of two smaller atoms into a larger atom. Our sun is a continuous fusion process. Fusion has advantages to include lower nuclear radiation in operation, abundant fuel supplies, very little long-term nuclear waste, no materials that can be used to make weapons, and fusion plants could not experience a meltdown such as experienced at Fukushima.</i><br />
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There is a tremendous amount of research and development underway to underpin the building of a nuclear fusion reactor. A large number of players are stepping into fusion power research and development because more so than ever before the challenges of containing a fusion reaction appear achievable. Lockheed Martin, The Massachusetts Institute of Technology Plasma Fusion Center, Canada’s General Fusion Inc., Jeff Bezos, and many others see the potential of this technology and assess it achievable.<br />
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A panel of noted scientists of the National Academy of Sciences in late 2018 indicated a commercially viable fusion power reactor was achievable by 2050 with continued Department of Energy funded research. Success in the past year into one of the biggest challenges of fusion power – containment fields – may indicate that goal can be achieved earlier, particularly with a major commitment and investment.<br />
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The U.S. Navy has led the nation and the world in the use of nuclear power. Admiral Hyman Rickover was the father of the nuclear Navy who created an immense military capability through his genius and dogged demand for excellence in all who joined his team of nuclear engineers. Thanks to Rickover the Navy operated 500 reactors on 210 nuclear-powered ships in the past 70 years steaming over 128 million miles safely under nuclear power. All submarines and aircraft carriers built since 1975 are nuclear powered.<br />
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The Navy’s nuclear propulsion systems are not following the decline of the commercial nuclear industry. In fact, the Navy is looking further into the future. The US Naval Air Warfare Center Aircraft Division is reported to have filed a patent for a compact FUSION reactor (CFR) indicating the Navy is working on a shift in the future from fission to fusion reactors.<br />
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NASA is developing a Fusion Driven Rocket that converts fusion energy into propulsion. NASA contends the “future of manned space exploration and development of space depends critically on the creation of a dramatically more proficient propulsion architecture for in-space transportation.” It is focusing on fusion to achieve that goal.<br />
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We sit at a very important moment in time when opportunities to fundamentally shift the way we produce energy throughout the world are at hand. The federal government is recognizing the potential and is engaging to direct resources and focus. But is it enough?<br />
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The U.S. Department of Energy’s Office of Nuclear Energy is eager to develop and support advanced nuclear technologies. Since 2018 nearly $200 million in awards have been made to “provide a direct vehicle to support innovative, domestic nuclear industry-driven designs and technologies that have high potential to improve the overall economic outlook for nuclear power in the U.S.” The program is hoped to accelerate development of improvements to existing technology and mature new and advanced U.S. designs in the 2020's. Bill Gates’ Terra Power was awarded $40 million by the U.S. Department of Energy to develop the MCFR reactor in 2016. <br />
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In August, 2019 the DoE awarded an additional $50 million in grants to “U.S. universities, private industry and national laboratories for a range of research projects in fusion energy and plasma science.”<br />
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Congress passed and President Trump signed into law two bills since September of 2018, the Nuclear Energy Innovation Capabilities Act (NEICA) and the Nuclear Energy Innovation and Modernization Act (NEIMA) to address government-imposed barriers to nuclear technologies.<br />
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A third bill, the Nuclear Energy Leadership Act (NELA), was introduced in the summer of 2019 to begin to apply government resources in a big way. Bill Gates said that if it were passed he would put in $1 billion of his personal wealth and raise another $1 billion from others to help fund the bill’s goals. The bill is presently in committees in the House and Senate. It is more controversial than the previous two bills. Some contend the bill puts the government into a role that belongs in the private sector while others contend it is an “aggressive government strategy that puts America in a position of global leadership for advanced nuclear technologies.”<br />
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Given the potential of modernized fission nuclear power plants and fusion reactors a much more aggressive approach should be pursued. A national effort should begin on the scale of the space program to transform the U.S. energy portfolio for electricity generation to 50% nuclear by the year 2050.<br />
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Senator Robert Kennedy, paraphrasing George Bernard Shaw, delivered a speech at the University of Kansas on March 18, 1968, in which he said, “Some people see things as they are and say, ‘Why?’ I dream things that never were and say, ‘Why not?’" We need to be positive and think nothing impossible if we are to achieve great things.<br />
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Over fifty years ago President John F. Kennedy said, “We choose to go to the moon in this decade and do the other things, not because they are easy, but because they are hard, because that goal will serve to organize and measure the best of our energies and skills, because that challenge is one that we are willing to accept, one we are unwilling to postpone, and one which we intend to win.” Common purpose and a challenge to greatness can bind a nation with great reward.<br />
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I would like to see President Donald Trump and the leadership of both parties in the House and Senate stand together for a speech like John F. Kennedy’s that will move us toward a better future for all human beings and simultaneously bind us all in a common purpose and goal that will “serve to organize and measure the best of our energies and skills.”<br />
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Liberty Takes Efforthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13398225334133635697noreply@blogger.com1