Tuesday, February 2, 2016

Iowa Caucuses Result

Iowa is the first state in the nation to begin the party nomination process in presidential elections.  It has been that way since 1972.  It is a unique form in the nation using caucuses rather than primary elections.  As Iowa only awards 1% of the delegates it is rather inconsequential, except that it is first.  This brings a great deal of attention to the state.

Beyond being first, what does Iowa tell us?  Its track record in predicting the nominee for the Democrats is only 40%.  With Republicans it is slightly better, but still only 50/50.   So winning isn’t really predictive.  As Iowa is not a winner takes all state and the delegates are distributed based on the percentage each candidate receives its practical meaning in the race for delegates is also subdued.