Author Note: I have been on hiatus for several months due to travel and simply being too busy in retirement with other priorities. I still intend to blog but not as frequently. The war in Ukraine, filled with unspeakable horror and sorrow weighs on many people as they confront video of the suffering of the Ukrainian people. Some folks have asked for my opinion on the war and its implications. I offer my thoughts here for your consideration.
A settlement of the Russia-Ukraine War will likely be agreed
in the coming weeks as Russia’s military objectives move further from reach and
Western solidarity and support of Ukraine intensify. In this fourth week of battle the outcome is
coming into focus. Russian President
Vladimir Putin’s
original plan to quickly take control of the Ukrainian capital at Kyiv,
install a puppet government, and establish a compliant Belarus-type satellite
state failed. It appears Russia is now preparing
the groundwork for a best possible negotiated outcome, though Putin will likely
continue to take escalatory steps to weaken Ukrainian will and intimidate its
Western supporters until a final settlement is reached.
Russia incorrectly assessed the unity, resolve, and capabilities of Ukraine. It overestimated its own military capabilities as its air forces proved incapable of establishing essential air superiority and ground forces are bogged down in subpar equipment, with inadequate logistics. Russian ground force soldiers are largely conscripts (draftees) that are both misinformed and untrained, and seemingly unable to perform basic formation tactics. The Pentagon estimates 7,000 of them have lost their lives as a result.
Leadership in the field is highly concentrated at the top with
officers holding tactical knowledge and decision-making authority (unlike the
U.S. where professional NCOs act and maneuver in response to changing
situations.) Thirteen
senior commanders have reportedly been killed on the battlefield, including
five general officers. The loss of
leadership and a combined casualty rate of dead and wounded estimated at over
25,000 approaches a level that the force can no longer fight. A casualty rate of ten percent in a single
unit is sufficient to make the unit ineffective.
Putin also incorrectly assumed that two decades of Western complacency
in response to Russian provocations would continue. In addition to extensive economic sanctions, the
U.S., NATO, and other democracies are supplying
the Ukrainians with lethal and effective equipment, and probably
intelligence. Calls for more expansive military
aid (e.g. Polish MiG-29s and No Fly Zones) have been rejected. The Biden Administration and other
contributors are walking a fine line of supporting Ukraine, while simultaneously
avoiding a misstep that leads to direct confrontation with the largest nuclear
armed country in the world. Seeing the suffering and horror every day evokes
an emotional response to answer affirmatively every request for help. But Western leaders must judge how much might
be too much and provoke an escalatory, even nuclear response. That is tough and critics
should should be thoughtful in criticizing these difficult
decisions.
In the coming weeks, Putin will likely continue pressuring
his military to hang on as long as possible to give him leverage in
negotiations - but time works against him.
He will likely continue, and maybe expand, terrorizing the Ukrainian
civilian population with missile attacks to weaken the will of their government
to continue fighting and instead to strike a deal. European governments will probably be
pressured by strikes in Western Ukraine to slow the flow of materiel and
intelligence support to the Ukrainians.
Domestically, Putin will probably prepare his country for
the failure and divert blame from himself by: using his propaganda apparatus to place him as
the sole defender of Mother Russia; blaming
his intelligence community for misleading him and his generals for being
incompetent; accusing his industrial oligarchs
of stealing money from military industry; and declare independent media and
opposition
leaders as traitors.
Simultaneously, he will use his long-time foreign minister
Sergie Lavrov to negotiate
a settlement, through the good offices of Turkey and Israel, that meets many
of Putin’s objectives. Ukraine will
probably agree to a form of neutrality, in exchange for Russian withdrawal, that includes not pursuing European Union or NATO membership. Europe and the U.S. have given Zelensky every
indication it will neither be offered nor approved anyway. He likely also agree to the incorporation of
Crimea into Russia and the sovereignty of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions in
Eastern Ukraine, but insist on further detailed negotiation of the precise borders
to absorb largely ethnic Ukrainian cities into Ukraine.
The immediate crisis of conflict in Ukraine that has
produced millions of refugees; over $100 billion in destruction to property;
and the collapse of the Ukrainian economy could be over and Russian forces
withdrawn from Ukraine within a few months.
Ukrainian President Zelensky will then, by necessity, focus on restoring
his country.
Putin will walk with a bloody nose and a diminished military prestige, but with most of what he
wanted. He will continue to pursue his geostrategic goals by other means. Putin is not insane - he is the authoritarian
leader of a nuclear armed kleptocracy. He perceives himself as an historic
leader of a nation that is not European or Asian, but unique to itself and
deserving of an elevated placement in the world order. He believes that greatness has been denied
Russia by a hostile West. His purpose is
to restore
Russia to its “proper place.” He has
been consolidating power internally and maneuvering externally to restore Greater
Russia for over two decades. His actions
went largely unpunished by a complacent West.
Hence, he mistakenly thought he could go further with the absorption of
Ukraine.
Russia’s aggression against Ukraine laid bare Russia’s authoritarian
expansionist intent. It also illuminated
a global synergy of authoritarianism that represents a larger and longer-term
threat to democracies. Putin will not give up his goals
and dreams. He will adjust
to achieve them in a different way – in coordination with China and under
China’s leadership. More on that in my next blog post – “Wake Up America!”
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