The brutal attack by Hamas on Israel on October 7, 2023, presents a challenging situation. However, it may have unforeseen consequences, such as weakening Iran's influence, potentially leading to a change in leadership in Gaza, and creating a more favorable political environment for peace and prosperity in the region, including for Palestinians.
Hamas's attack on Israel can be seen as an attempt by Iran,
using one of its proxies, to disrupt the progress and success of the Abraham
Accords. These Accords offer modernization, economic prosperity, and peace to a
region that has been plagued by bitter conflicts with no hope of resolution for
decades.
Iran's opposition to the Accords is driven by its desire for
regional hegemony. Iran is a theocracy governed by totalitarian mullahs,
leading a population of 90 million people with the intent to remove the U.S. presence from the Middle East and dominate its Sunni Muslim neighbors. Their leaders
aspire to “restore a sense of “greatness” reminiscent of ancient Persian empires.” Iran uses
proxies across the region to pursue its strategic goals with plausible
deniability.
Contrary to the outcry from Hamas supporters worldwide and
distorted intersectional views on U.S. college campuses, the attack was not about
a continuing cycle of violence or a righteous anti-colonial struggle of the
oppressed. Its purpose was to prevent the Abraham Accords from uniting Israel
and Sunni Muslim states in the Middle East.
Iran employs proxies throughout the Middle East to challenge local and neighboring governments. These militias and parties receive support from Iran's Revolutionary Guards and Quds Force in Bahrain, Iraq, Lebanon, the Palestinian Territories, Syria, and Yemen. This allows Iran to pursue its strategic objectives while maintaining plausible deniability, as seen in incidents such as the 1983 bombing of the U.S. Marine Barracks in Beirut and the recent attack on Israel.
Hamas had been planning its attack on Israel for over a
year, with key support from Iranian allies. Iran's backing of Hamas has increased in
recent years, with funding rising from $100 million to $700 million in 2022.
Training, arms, logistical support, and technical guidance on weapons
manufacturing have also increased. Although it seems unusual for Sunni Hamas
leaders to align themselves with Shiite Iran, their shared interests in the
destruction of Israel and substantial Iranian support forged this alliance.
Reports from The Wall Street Journal suggest that the
Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corp met with Hamas in Beirut to approve the attack on Israel. While the U.S.
government claims it lacks direct evidence of an Iranian role in the attack,
substantial evidence points to Iran's involvement, which some choose to deny in
order to avoid direct confrontation with Iran.
The Biden Administration's policy changes, including a more
conciliatory approach to Iran to restore nuclear negotiations, have emboldened
the Iranian government. These changes have allowed Iran to earn
significantly more from crude oil sales. Additionally, the release of $10
billion in frozen funds in Iraq in July and another $6 billion in frozen funds
in Korea in September has provided the Iranian government with ample resources
to pursue its objectives.
The Abraham Accords pose a challenge to Iran's ambitions. These agreements between Israel and several Arab states expand upon previous peace agreements with Egypt and Jordan. As of now, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan have joined the Accords.
The Accords document states, “Recognizing that the Arab and
Jewish peoples are descendants of a common ancestor, Abraham, and inspired, in
that spirit, to foster in the Middle East a reality in which Muslims, Jews,
Christians and peoples of all faiths, denominations, beliefs and nationalities
live in, and are committed to, a spirit of coexistence, mutual understanding
and mutual respect… [AND] committed to working together to realize a negotiated
solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict that meets the legitimate needs
and aspirations of both peoples.”
Talk of expanding the Accords to include Saudi Arabia may have been too much for Iran to tolerate. The announcement of the India-MiddleEast-Europe Corridor initiative at the G20 Summit in India in September likely raised further concerns, not only for Iran but also for China and Russia. This corridor envisions a multi-faceted economic and energy route from India to Europe through Saudi Arabia and Israel.
The opportunity lies in the possibility that Iran may have
overplayed its hand, confirming to the Abraham Accords participants that their
perception of Iran as a source of violence and instability in the region is
accurate. Forward-thinking leaders in Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Bahrain are
not deceived by this attempt to undermine their vision for the future. They may
express concern for the welfare of the Palestinian people publicly, but they
are likely to welcome the destruction of Hamas. Once the dust settles after the
conflict, they will likely resume their efforts with renewed determination and
a sense of urgency.
Israel, which stands to benefit the most from regional
peace, has been compelled to take unwelcome military action to defend its
people and restore conditions for further advancing the Abraham Accords. It
cannot tolerate Hamas as the leadership in Gaza, as it risks a repeat of the
horrors of October 7th with potentially even more devastating consequences.
Israel, the United States, and the Abraham Accords states
must now work on setting the conditions for progress after Israel completes its military
action. This includes establishing new leadership in Gaza committed to peace
and willing to shift the culture and political narrative among Palestinians
from an absolutist "from the river to the sea" chant that calls for the elimination of Israel to one that
accepts that compromise is in their best interest.
Simultaneously, the United States must abandon its misguided
efforts to pursue détente with Iran and restore the Trump Administration's
"maximum pressure" policy. It should lead an international effort to
reduce the power of Iran's mullahs and dismantle their proxies in the Middle
East. The participants in the Abraham process should join this effort as
advocates for peace and prosperity in the region.
In the words of Jesus, "Blessed are the peacemakers,
for they will be called children of God" (Matt 5:9). Iran's actions have
demonstrated it is a source of violence and instability in the
Middle East. Those who seek peace and prosperity through the Abraham Accords
are the true peacemakers. Their positive trajectory was disrupted by Iran and
Hamas, causing the current violence. It is essential to recognize the difference
between the two struggling parties and support those who seek peace.
*****
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