Assessing State COVID-19 Performance

I perform my own analysis of data from multiple reputable sources to better inform myself about COVID-19.  I share some of that analysis here. I am not an epidemiologist or government official.  My analysis is my own personal pursuit of better understanding in an often unclear and conflicting reporting environment. Some of my blog readers may find it interesting and maybe even helpful.  It is a layman's work, so keep that in mind.  In this specific post I use the following sources:  The Covid Tracking Project : Rtlive ; and the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

First, I created the Venn diagram at right to provide a context for my writing.  As is the normal course in present day America there are those that try and divide by making every issue an either/or binary choice for political alignment.  I reject that.  The COVID-19 pandemic is complex and at least three areas - public health, rights and responsibilities, and economic impact - should be a part of any pandemic policy.  A skeptical public should take responsibility for demanding balance and evidence of efficacy in policy.

The lack of depth in media reporting is what instigates my own analysis.  There is an overwhelming inclination in government and the media to report raw numbers of COVID-19 cases and deaths. Raw numbers tell us little to nothing of value. What does a statistic mean if it is not compared or contrasted with something else to measure its relative impact, value, threat, or risk? It is in comparisons where we find value and knowledge. For example, one can compare states to measure relative performance and gain insights into policy effectiveness or compare a state's performance over time to reveal trends within a state.

Should hard hit states reassess Covid-19 strategy?

Massachusetts Governor Charlie Baker announced this week an extension to his May 18 “Stay At Home" order.  The Mayors of Somerville, Cambridge and Peabody, MA ordered the wearing of masks in public places (indoor and outdoor) with fines for non-compliance of between $300 - $1000.  Is doubling down on a general population lock down strategy the right path going forward? Or does the overall strategy need review?

One can reasonably ask:  Is the strategy of generalized social distancing with increasing restriction appropriate going forward? Would it be more effective to target the virus directly where it is most insidious and deadly, focus resources there, and allow a gradual development of herd immunity in the general population?

Last week the Wall Street Journal reported over 10,000 COVID-19 associated deaths at elder care facilities. This number is likely to go up in both number and percentage terms. The WSJ has built its own database by contacting state departments of health directly because reporting from government sources was rare.   California released data this weekend indicating nearly 40% of its deaths come from nursing home and elder care facilities.  The World Health Organization (WHO) reports half of Europe's deaths from COVID-19 were from elder care facilities.

The Massachusetts Department of Public Health COVID-19 Dashboard indicates nearly 60% of the 3153 MA deaths occurred in long-term care facilities.   This percentage might rise as the definition may only indicate those that die on nursing home property not those that were released to home or died in hospitals after transfer from a nursing home. 

In Massachusetts, the 70 and older age group made up 86% of confirmed COVID-19 deaths with those 80 and older making up nearly 65%.   There have been no deaths in the 0-19 age group and 33 in total for those in age groups under 50.   Ninety-eight percent (98%) of those who died in MA, and for which a full investigation has been completed, had underlying conditions.

COVID-19: Risk Assessment, Model Uncertainty, Unknown Prevalence, Unclear Mortality, Alternative Paths, and State Anomalies

The COVID-19 battle is trending favorably. There is reason to be grateful for lower death rates, less hospitalization, less ICU use, and less ventilator need than was predicted.  Those that directly engaged at great personal risk, from first responders to health care workers, deserve our thanks.  Moving forward vigilance and rigorous critical analysis is needed to understand the risk COVID-19 posed.  There is much we do not know to include:

How prevalent is it in the population?  
What is the mortality rate?
Did uncertain models overly inform and influence narrative and government policy?
What role, and to what degree, did social distancing influence cases and deaths? 

Were there alternative strategies that could have been as effective?

It is important that the nation undertake an investigation to fully understand the risks and realities of COVID-19 and assess whether or not the actions that local, state, and federal governments were in fact necessary and effective.  Shutting down the U.S. economy was an extreme action.  It is an unsustainable action that cannot become part of the standard play book for each new virus threat.  Understanding what really happened in during the pandemic is essential to ensuring future preparedness and viable strategies.

My concern is that harmful policies were taken by federal, state, and local governments that threaten our economic well being and played loose with Constitutional rights based on uncertain predictive models.  Did the governments actions stop nearly 2.2. million deaths?  Or, were the original projections simply wrong?  We do not know. We need to find out.  Our future well being may depend on it.

As the COVID-19 pandemic settles down and election season draws near some politicians are going to be patting themselves on the back for having saved thousands if not millions of lives.   If the total number of deaths by fall is approximately 60,000 President Trump can say his Administration's  actions saved between 1.44 and 2.14 million lives.  This assumes the models were correct in their predictions.  Governors can extrapolate their great success from the same numbers.  A handful of governors will have to explain to their citizens (particularly NY, NJ, MI, MA, LA, IL) why their states were negatively impacted disproportionately.  

Relative percentages to understand state COVID-19 status

President Donald Trump and the White House Corona Virus Task Force released “Opening Up America Again” guidelines on April 16, 2020.  The guidelines provide “Proposed State or Regional Gating Criteria” for proceeding to each of three phases of reduced restrictions on economic and social activity.

“Core State Preparedness Responsibilities” include robust testing and contact tracing capability, adequate healthcare system capacity to include a surge capability, and a plan to protect the health and safety of critical workers, vulnerable populations (e.g. nursing homes), and other related specific requirements.

The guidelines use criteria for transitions through the three phases based on data within a state or even county or city level, as the granularity of data is now available to those levels.  The guidelines do not set dates, but rely on states satisfy criteria to transition through each phase called “Gating.”  Beyond the underpinning Core State Preparedness Responsibilities a state would make decisions about transitioning based on an observed decrease in day to day confirmed cases and  positive tests for the virus over a two week period.

This necessary plan is adequate to begin the process of transition in balancing the risk of economic collapse with public health.  Twenty-two million Americans have now lost their jobs as the result of the Covid-19 pandemic.

I keep my own databases to analyze the risk of Covid-19. I do this to satisfy my own curiosity and analytical bent, but I also feel that there is a weakness in journalism today that forces me to do my own analysis.   I have observed an overemphasis on reporting raw numbers to indicate risk and impact with an emphasis on rounded thresholds (e.g. 1000, 10,000) that make for good headlines.  This distorts impressions and understanding.   I believe a better way to understand virus risk and impact is through relative comparison of a state against other states and the national average by calculating the percentage of a state’s residents that have been tested, have tested positive, have died, and are projected to die with Covid-19.

I set up download routines from databases that are reliable and current.  The COVID Tracking Project hosted at The Atlantic has a data file that I use to track specific numbers tested, hospitalized, and deaths.  The New York Times has a database that tracks similar data, but has an excellent graphic presentation showing the increase or decrease in cases and deaths in a day over day comparison.  The University of Washington IHME database provides model projections for hospital bed and ventilator shortfalls and anticipated number of deaths through August 4^th by state.

Below are some tables I created that are sorted to show different rankings by state and the national average.  I offer these tables to my blog readers in the hope that it will help them better understand the situation in their state and appreciate that all states are different. 

We need an exit strategy – now!

Data indicates the U.S. is achieving the goal it set out to accomplish.  The national objective was as follows:

The United States’ immediate and primary objective in response to the COVID-19 pandemic is to compress the peak of infections (commonly called “Flattening the Curve”) in order to avoid denying critical care to the afflicted as a result of insufficient hospital staffing, hospital beds, Intensive Care Unit (ICU) beds, and ventilators.  Social distancing is the primary strategy to achieve this objective.

Data tracking indicates the curve of COVID-19 illness is flattening in many countries of Europe and in the United States.  In the U.S., hospital beds, ICU beds, and ventilator capacity are meeting need and improving as the number of patients requiring these services is declining and options for treatment expand. Production of personal protective equipment and ventilators is increasing to meet need.  Care capacity to treat infected patients is increasing as hospitals reallocate resources, old hospitals and other spaces are converted to active service, field hospitals are opened, and hospital ships are deployed.

The U.S. objective stated above assumed a very high risk that healthcare capacity would be exceeded responding to the SARS-CoV-2 virus that causes Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19).  Models indicated the virus would spread wider and faster than other viruses, its symptoms would be more debilitating, and it would be more deadly than other viruses.   The models were just that – MODELS. 

Post-COVID-19 research and analysis will determine how accurate those predictive models were.  For now, gratitude is in order that the virus impact is less severe than was originally predicted.  Whether that results from our social distancing strategy, or the virus is just not as vicious as predicted, or seasonal weather change is having the same impact on SARS-2 as it does on many other viruses is fodder for another day.  For now, cautious victory can be declared, and cautious and prepared gradual rescinding of many social distancing restrictions can begin.

Maintaining social distancing to the extent it is currently in practice can cause tremendous social harm.  The “Disaster Distress Helpline” at the Substance Abuse and Mental Health Services Administration last month saw call volume increase 9 times over March 2019 and officials are warning of a national mental health crisis.   The National Suicide Prevention Lifeline set a record last month for call volume.  Those saved and sustained by addiction programs such as AA and NA are at greater risk of relapse despite attempts to move support online.  The United Nations this past weekend called for “urgent action to combat the worldwide surge in domestic violence.”

Nursing homes need greater focus in COVID-19 battle

It is clear that age is a major factor in COVID-19 morbidity.  It is clear that underlying health status is a major factor in COVID-19 morbidity.  It appears the place one resides (SETTING) is also a major factor.  Specifically, reporting indicates nursing homes and other elder care facilities are the major setting source for COVID-19 outbreaks leading to death.  Data collection and reporting must increase immediately to identify and report the setting in which COVID-19 is contracted and immediate policy implemented to prevent and mitigate vulnerability in the short term.  In the long term, the nation must dramatically change and improve residential elder care or rethink the current model.

There are about fifteen thousand nursing homes with nearly 2 million licensed beds in the United States.   These facilities "appear" a hotbed for COVID-19 deaths.  “Appear” because there is no available repository of data to validate this hypothesis.  The Centers for Disease Control (CDC) does not release the names of nursing homes or the number of residents who have contracted COVID-19 when outbreaks occur - but it should.  There is some media and state reporting from which one can extrapolate the extent and severity of the problem.

The first such case occurred at the Life Care Center of Kirkland in King County, Washington where 81 residents, 34 staff members, and 14 visitors contracted COVID-19.  Of these cases, 23 patients and visitors died.  A more recent example is unfurling at the Commonwealth of Massachusetts’ state run Soldier’s Home in Holyoke, MA where 21 have thus far died.

At least 400 nursing homes across the country have COVID-19 outbreaks.  The number is increasing daily.  No doubt, there will be a correlation between this growth and a climbing number of deaths reported from COVID-19.

A Trump vs Sanders contest may be needed

A general election contest may be necessary between President Donald Trump and Senator Bernie Sanders in 2020.    The United States is going through a tumultuous rejection and realignment of its political culture that may well climax with the 2020 presidential election.   Pitting the two non-party populist candidates with opposing political philosophies in a head-to-head contest will break the two major political parties and determine if the political center of American culture will be reset much further left or remain a conservative right majority.  The fight is a necessary one to conclude a rejection of two parties that are more similar than not in creating division and failing to address the interests of the American people.